Under-scouted by most teams during his season at Riverside City College, Alvarez’s big season at the JUCO wasn’t missed by the Braves, who nabbed him in the fifth round of the 2022 Draft. He’s more than rewarded their faith in him by performing his way up the ladder relatively quickly, spending his first full season in High-A, then going from Double-A to touching the big leagues in 2024.
Alvarez’s best skill is his knack for making consistent hard contact. He struck out in just 16.9 percent of his plate appearances at the upper levels of the Minors last year, in line with his 16.6 percent career K rate. He combines his feel for the barrel with an excellent strike-zone judgement, as evidenced by his 14.2 percent walk rate. While he's often content to shoot line drives to right-center field -- and he's very adept at it -- there might be a little more pop in there than expected, and he did show some ability to turn on some balls in Triple-A last year with some pull-side homers.
While he played third in junior college and could be an elite defender at the hot corner, the Braves challenged him with playing shortstop in the Minors. Because of his hands and instincts, he more than held his own at the premium position, though he lacks the agility and range to stay there long-term, and he handled being thrown in at second base in the big leagues well. He’ll have to tap into that power more to profile as an everyday guy at third or second, but it should be noted he’ll play at age 22 for the 2025 season.
In his one year at Riverside City College, a two-year school in California, Alvarez hit .370/.494/.582 and won a state championship, but largely flew under the radar. The Braves noticed him and took him in the fifth round, giving him an over-slot bonus of $497,500 to join the organization. He’s continued to hit and get on base since signing, with a .406 on-base percentage entering 2024, with a defensive shift on the left side of the infield making him even more intriguing.
A right-handed hitter, Alvarez has very impressive bat-to-ball skills, striking out in just 17.4 percent of his plate appearances at age 20 in High-A in 2023. He has an advanced approach and draws plenty of walks (13.2 percent last year), giving him the chance to be a very good hitter with quick hands at the plate. He is capable of making hard contact, but he hits the ball on the ground too frequently, especially to his pull side. How he adjusts to better pitching and learns to drive the ball will determine his ultimate offensive profile.
A third baseman at Riverside, the Braves liked how Alvarez’s feet and hands worked, so even though he’s not a runner and has a thicker lower half, they wanted to see how he looked at shortstop. It’s turned out that he’s looked very good, even being mentioned as one of the best defenders in the Mionrs by executives from other teams. If he can stay there long-term, that increases his value and puts a little less pressure on him to become a run-producer, and there’s definitely an up arrow next to his name.
Riverside City College is a two-year school in California that has produced more than its fair share of draftees. But when the Braves took Alvarez in the fifth round after he slashed .370/.494/.582 in 2022, he became the first Riverside product to go in the first five rounds since lefty Ryan Wing was a second-round pick of the White Sox back in 2001. Atlanta gave Alvarez an over-slot bonus of $497,500 to sign, and he performed well in both the Rookie-level Florida Complex League and Single-A Carolina League in his summer pro debut.
The Braves feel they may have found an undiscovered gem in Alvarez, who some teams didn’t even turn in for the 2022 Draft. The right-handed hitter has well-above-average contact skills with quick hands at the plate and a very advanced approach. He drew many more walks than strikeouts during his pro debut, replicating his output at Riverside. He’s definitely hit-over-power, though he should grow into more extra-base authority as he matures.
At 6-foot, 190 pounds, Alvarez doesn’t necessarily look the part of a shortstop, but he does have a decent arm and instincts that give him the opportunity to get some reps there. He most likely fits best at third base, with a good chance to profile decently at second if the bat continues to play.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about how positioning is defined here
