Mitch Keller
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 220LBS | Age: 26

Draft: 2014 | Rd: 2, #64, Pittsburgh Pirates | Xavier (IA) HS
Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2022 2 6 5.21 16 14 0 76.0 66 1.55
4 Seasons 9 23 5.77 55 53 0 246.1 239 1.68
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2022 16 2-6 5.21 76.0 66 1.55
4 Seasons 55 9-23 5.77 246.1 239 1.68

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 23 932 145 8 5.5 3.5 87.2 115.7 10.9 33.8 .237 .346 .392 .284 .383 35.3 28.6 7.0 7.13 3.51
2020 24 385 52 6 11.5 6.9 88.5 114.6 14.3 19.2 .203 .468 .303 .371 .365 42.3 18.4 20.7 2.91 6.12
2021 25 1858 322 22 6.8 4.7 91.5 110.2 11.5 40.1 .289 .452 .379 .359 .405 47.5 19.6 10.4 6.17 5.65
2022 26 1238 218 16 7.3 5.1 87.8 112.7 7.6 33.0 .267 .442 .338 .343 .380 36.7 18.9 9.9 5.14 4.41
Player 4413 737 52 7.1 4.7 89.4 115.7 10.4 35.3 .266 .430 .364 .342 .391 41.8 21.2 10.4
MLB 6.7 4.6 88.4 122.2 12.1 33.0 .246 .410 .317 .317 .370 35.7 22.0 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Keller relies on 5 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(37.2%) ,
Slider
(21.3%) ,
Sinker
(19.7%) ,
Curveball
(13%) ,
Changeup
(8.8%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 40.7 20.0 35.2 4.1 37.9 32.4 29.7 4.8 29.0 17.9 22.1 2.1 5.5 3.5
2020 42.3 36.5 13.5 7.7 38.5 36.5 25.0 5.8 36.5 30.8 7.7 7.7 11.5 6.9
2021 41.0 24.8 29.8 4.3 29.5 38.8 31.7 4.3 27.0 21.7 32.6 7.5 6.8 4.7
2022 52.3 19.7 22.5 5.5 33.0 39.9 27.1 6.4 37.2 19.7 23.4 5.0 7.3 5.1
Player 44.4 23.2 27.5 4.9 32.8 37.7 29.4 5.2 31.1 21.0 26.1 5.7 7.1 4.7
MLB 44.9 22.9 25.1 7.1 36.7 37.8 25.4 3.8 33.1 24.5 24.4 5.7 6.7 4.6
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2022 Sinker PIT R 244 94.9 19.1 -1.0 -5 14.9 0.1 1
2022 Curveball PIT R 161 79.6 59.3 5.5 10 10.8 2.5 30
2022 4-Seamer PIT R 460 96.0 15.2 -1.6 -12 7.2 -0.1 -2
2022 Slider PIT R 264 86.3 37.2 2.7 8 8.1 3.1 62
2022 Changeup PIT R 109 91.8 27.6 0.5 2 15.6 0.4 2
2021 Changeup PIT R 88 89.8 25.3 -2.1 -8 13.8 -0.3 -2
2021 4-Seamer PIT R 1,054 93.8 15.3 -0.7 -4 6.6 -0.3 -5
2021 Slider PIT R 446 86.1 36.2 1.5 4 3.2 -1.2 -27
2021 Curveball PIT R 270 78.5 59.3 4.4 8 9.5 1.5 18
2020 Slider PIT R 84 86.9 31.6 -1.8 -5 4.3 0.7 18
2020 Curveball PIT R 75 78.1 59.2 2.8 5 7.9 -0.3 -3
2020 Changeup PIT R 12 88.8 26.5 -1.0 -4 13.2 -0.4 -3
2020 4-Seamer PIT R 214 93.9 14.3 0.1 1 7.1 0.4 6
2019 Curveball PIT R 120 81.1 56.9 4.7 9 9.2 2.3 34
2019 4-Seamer PIT R 448 95.4 14.5 0.0 0 6.8 -0.6 -9
2019 Slider PIT R 157 87.6 35.9 2.2 6 4.1 0.3 9
2019 Changeup PIT R 28 91.0 23.7 -2.8 -10 14.1 0.4 3
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2022 4-Seamer 0.9 4 460 37.2 103 .312 .495 .369 18.1 17.5 12.3 .251 .480 .337 26.3
2022 Slider 1.4 4 264 21.3 76 .265 .426 .338 31.7 26.3 21.1 .269 .452 .346 41.7
2022 Sinker -3.1 -8 244 19.7 72 .250 .300 .336 15.7 12.5 28.1 .303 .369 .360 39.2
2022 Curveball 2.7 4 161 13.0 31 .310 .379 .329 21.4 22.6 14.6 .287 .492 .352 45.5
2022 Changeup 0.4 0 109 8.8 30 .192 .308 .310 18.8 16.7 18.5 .213 .390 .314 47.6
2021 4-Seamer 0.3 3 1,054 56.7 253 .313 .495 .390 17.7 19.8 17.6 .282 .473 .368 46.5
2021 Slider 0.7 3 446 24.0 133 .263 .398 .326 30.5 24.8 19.0 .238 .358 .301 47.7
2021 Curveball 4.7 13 270 14.5 67 .452 .565 .465 12.8 11.9 9.8 .390 .542 .425 50.0
2021 Changeup 3.0 3 88 4.7 16 .385 .462 .434 6.7 6.3 12.5 .375 .544 .452 50.0
2020 4-Seamer -0.7 -1 214 55.6 50 .184 .395 .352 18.2 12.0 11.1 .246 .554 .421 53.1
2020 Slider -1.5 -1 84 21.8 17 .000 .000 .206 37.5 35.3 17.6 .052 .060 .241 16.7
2020 Curveball -0.3 0 75 19.5 18 .118 .471 .261 13.0 22.2 13.3 .214 .579 .345 30.8
2020 Changeup 6.3 1 12 3.1 2 .000 .000 .350 0.0 0.0 0.0 .182 .184 .446 0.0
2019 4-Seamer 2.5 11 448 48.1 98 .461 .719 .515 17.5 22.4 18.0 .314 .460 .352 42.0
2019 Slider -0.6 -1 157 16.8 47 .200 .289 .277 47.8 38.3 29.5 .187 .304 .229 29.6
2019 Curveball -3.4 -4 120 12.9 35 .133 .133 .183 33.3 37.1 25.5 .155 .196 .215 11.1
2019 Changeup 10.5 3 28 3.0 5 .800 1.000 .790 14.3 0.0 0.0 .348 .427 .333 60.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 11 89.0 95 16.3 1:30 2:00 -30
2020 Curveball 70 78.2 84 18.8 7:00 6:45 15
2020 4-Seam Fastball 191 94.0 91 17.7 1:00 12:45 15
2020 Slider 63 87.4 32 5.7 11:00 10:00 60
2021 Changeup 87 89.9 96 16.5 1:30 2:00 -30
2021 Curveball 268 78.6 90 20.2 7:00 7:00 0
2021 4-Seam Fastball 1,051 93.8 85 16.6 1:00 12:45 15
2021 Slider 444 86.1 25 4.1 9:15 8:30 45
2022 Changeup 103 91.8 96 16.8 2:00 2:30 -30
2022 Curveball 157 79.6 92 21.8 7:00 7:00 0
2022 4-Seam Fastball 440 95.9 85 15.8 1:00 1:00 0
2022 Sinker 242 94.9 82 18.7 1:00 2:00 -60
2022 Slider 253 86.3 40 9.7 8:30 8:30 0
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 185 753 1 3 3 2 9
2020 87 385 -4 -6 4 4 -2
2021 469 1,858 6 -11 15 12 22
2022 312 1,238 -4 -4 8 5 5
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 932 51.5 73.5 82.5 29.9 47.7 41.4 63.4 51.7 24.9 9.4 85.9
2020 385 45.2 66.7 82.8 19.0 67.5 41.6 46.0 40.5 21.2 7.8 73.3
2021 1,858 50.3 66.6 86.4 25.4 58.1 41.4 56.0 46.1 20.2 7.3 80.0
2022 1,238 49.4 65.1 86.4 25.0 59.2 43.1 55.4 44.8 20.9 6.7 65.1
Player 4,413 49.8 67.5 85.3 25.4 57.0 41.9 56.6 46.5 21.6 7.5 76.8
MLB 48.5 66.9 82.0 28.3 58.4 42.6 60.7 47.0 24.6 7.2 76.0
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2019 78 57 86 96 65 87 79 83 61 80 67 47 78 83 91 83
2020 11 82 19 3 7 46 10 47 20 18 1 15 11 66 63 61
2021 8 4 22 45 3 36 63 3 2 22 22 10 8 61 75 70
2022 30 31 44 51 21 22 55 69 60 24 26 16 30 81 86 63
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.3 6 2.8 3 4 3 1 16.7
2020 24.1 4 4.3 0 1 5 1 25.0
2021 24.0 10 13.0 -3 6 11 5 50.0
2022 23.8 6 5.7 0 5 8 0 0.0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 6 4 3 2 3 2 2 3 4 2 5 2 1 3 1 4 2 3 2 2 4 2 1 3 2 4 5 2 3 2 5
2020 4 5 4 3 5 2 0 6 4 5 3 4 2 2 3 5 3 6 3 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 4 4 6
2021 10 10 18 9 14 16 13 13 15 13 16 12 9 10 10 16 18 13 11 12 14 10 12 12 12 15 16 12 13 9 18
2022 6 7 10 4 5 7 6 4 5 2 10 6 3 4 4 6 6 7 5 6 8 4 5 6 4 5 9 3 5 5 11
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 95.4 93.9 -1.5 93.8 -0.1 95.6 1.8
Offspeed Velocity 91 88.8 -2.2 89.8 1 91.8 2
Breaking Velocity 84.8 82.7 -2.1 83.2 0.5 83.8 0.6
Exit Velocity 87.2 88.5 1.3 91.5 3 87.8 -3.7
Launch Angle 10.9 14.3 3.4 11.5 -2.8 7.6 -3.9
Barrel % 5.5 11.5 6 6.8 -4.7 7.3 0.5
Hard Hit % 35.3 42.3 7 47.5 5.2 36.7 -10.8
Sweet Spot % 33.8 19.2 -14.6 40.1 20.9 33 -7.1
xBA .237 .203 -0.034 .289 0.086 .267 -0.022
BA .348 .132 -0.216 .322 0.19 .275 -0.047
xwOBA .284 .371 0.087 .359 -0.012 .343 -0.016
wOBA .392 .303 -0.089 .379 0.076 .338 -0.041
xSLG .346 .468 0.122 .452 -0.016 .442 -0.01
SLG .546 .338 -0.208 .477 0.139 .406 -0.071
K% 28.6 18.4 -10.2 19.6 1.2 18.9 -0.7
BB% 7 20.7 13.7 10.4 -10.3 9.9 -0.5
Swing % 51.7 40.5 -11.2 46.1 5.6 44.8 -1.3
Whiff% 24.9 21.2 -3.7 20.2 -1 20.9 0.7
In Zone % 51.5 45.2 -6.3 50.3 5.1 49.4 -0.9
Out of Zone % 48.5 54.8 6.3 49.7 -5.1 50.6 0.9
Out of Zone Swing % 29.9 19 -10.9 25.4 6.4 25 -0.4
First Pitch Swing % 31.7 18.4 -13.3 29.6 11.2 25.6 -4
First Pitch Strike % 63.4 46 -17.4 56 10 55.4 -0.6
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2019 205 .378 113 19 16.8 92 25 27.2
2020 87 .303 36 21 58.3 51 26 51.0
2021 469 .379 239 15 6.3 230 146 63.5
2022 312 .338 155 21 13.5 157 78 49.7

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2019 237 15.7 39.2% 2.5% 151 23.1 0.0% 8.6%
2020 140 17.2 14.3% 1.4% 54 24.2 0.0% 24.1%
2021 481 16.9 28.1% 0.6% 353 22.5 0.0% 10.8%
2022 359 15.1 47.4% 1.9% 231 22.1 0.0% 7.4%
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Pitch Distribution