Mitch Keller
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 220LBS | Age: 27

Draft: 2014 | Rd: 2, #64, Pittsburgh Pirates | Xavier (IA) HS

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 6 1 3.01 11 11 0 68.2 85 1.02
5 Seasons 18 30 4.66 81 79 0 398.0 396 1.47
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 11 6-1 3.01 68.2 85 1.02
5 Seasons 81 18-30 4.66 398.0 396 1.47

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2019 23 932 145 8 5.5 3.5 87.2 115.7 10.9 33.8 .236 .346 .392 .284 .383 35.3 28.6 7.0 7.13 3.51
2020 24 385 52 6 11.5 6.9 88.5 114.6 14.3 19.2 .203 .467 .303 .371 .364 42.3 18.4 20.7 2.91 6.12
2021 25 1858 322 22 6.8 4.7 91.5 110.2 11.5 40.1 .289 .452 .379 .359 .405 47.5 19.6 10.4 6.17 5.65
2022 26 2661 477 34 7.1 4.9 87.9 112.7 7.8 33.3 .253 .383 .323 .318 .354 37.3 20.1 8.7 3.91 4.23
2023 27 1055 174 16 9.2 5.7 86.4 115.1 8.9 37.9 .216 .352 .265 .275 .361 28.7 30.5 5.7 3.02 3.03
Player 6891 1170 86 7.4 4.9 88.6 115.7 9.6 35.3 .252 .396 .337 .321 .373 38.9 22.6 9.1
MLB 6.8 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.1 33.0 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 36.0 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Keller relies on 6 pitches.
4-Seam Fastball
(25%) ,
Cutter
(23.9%) ,
Sinker
(20.9%) ,
Sweeper
(13.4%) ,
Curveball
(12.7%) ,
Changeup
(4.1%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2019 40.7 20.0 35.2 4.1 37.9 32.4 29.7 4.8 29.0 17.9 22.1 2.1 5.5 3.5
2020 42.3 36.5 13.5 7.7 38.5 36.5 25.0 5.8 36.5 30.8 7.7 7.7 11.5 6.9
2021 41.0 24.8 29.8 4.3 29.5 38.8 31.7 4.3 27.0 21.7 32.6 7.5 6.8 4.7
2022 49.9 19.3 25.8 5.0 33.1 40.0 26.8 7.1 36.9 19.5 24.3 4.4 7.1 4.9
2023 45.4 28.7 22.4 3.4 36.2 33.9 29.9 6.3 32.2 24.7 23.0 4.6 9.2 5.7
Player 45.3 23.1 27.0 4.6 33.4 37.7 28.9 5.9 32.5 21.2 25.4 5.1 7.4 4.9
MLB 44.8 23.2 24.9 7.1 36.8 37.7 25.4 3.9 33.0 24.6 24.4 5.8 6.8 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 Sweeper PIT R 141 83.1 40.2 1.5 4 19.2 4.9 34
2023 Changeup PIT R 43 90.8 29.4 1.8 6 16.7 1.5 10
2023 Cutter PIT R 251 90.6 26.3 -1.4 -6 2.6 0.3 12
2023 Sinker PIT R 221 94.2 21.2 0.2 1 16.6 1.4 9
2023 Curveball PIT R 134 78.1 60.1 4.5 8 12.3 3.1 33
2023 4-Seamer PIT R 264 95.5 14.5 -0.5 -4 9.2 1.6 21
2022 Sweeper PIT R 431 83.2 42.0 2.6 7 17.4 3.4 24
2022 4-Seamer PIT R 884 95.5 15.2 -1.3 -9 7.3 0.0 -1
2022 Curveball PIT R 411 78.7 60.0 5.0 9 11.2 2.6 31
2022 Sinker PIT R 592 94.4 19.7 -1.0 -5 14.8 0.1 0
2022 Changeup PIT R 175 91.2 28.1 0.9 3 14.8 -0.1 -1
2022 Slider PIT R 168 87.1 36.2 2.5 7 4.9 0.5 11
2021 Changeup PIT R 88 89.8 25.3 -2.1 -8 13.8 -0.3 -2
2021 Curveball PIT R 270 78.5 59.3 4.3 8 9.5 1.5 19
2021 Cutter PIT R 446 86.1 36.2 -6.8 -23 3.2 0.1 2
2021 4-Seamer PIT R 1,054 93.8 15.3 -0.7 -4 6.6 -0.3 -5
2020 Changeup PIT R 12 88.8 26.5 -1.0 -4 13.2 -0.4 -3
2020 Curveball PIT R 75 78.1 59.2 2.8 5 7.9 -0.2 -3
2020 Cutter PIT R 84 86.9 31.6 -3.1 -11 4.3 1.0 32
2020 4-Seamer PIT R 214 93.9 14.3 0.1 1 7.1 0.4 6
2019 Curveball PIT R 120 81.1 56.9 4.7 9 9.2 2.3 34
2019 Changeup PIT R 28 91.0 23.7 -2.8 -11 14.1 0.4 3
2019 4-Seamer PIT R 448 95.4 14.5 0.0 0 6.8 -0.6 -9
2019 Cutter PIT R 157 87.6 35.9 -7.1 -25 4.1 2.1 105
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 4-Seamer -1.7 -4 264 25.0 81 .181 .319 .266 30.3 46.9 32.8 .163 .267 .241 35.3
2023 Cutter -0.6 -2 252 23.9 51 .205 .341 .284 23.4 13.7 15.6 .256 .397 .325 21.1
2023 Sinker -2.4 -5 221 20.9 68 .200 .262 .238 9.8 29.4 32.3 .199 .306 .240 24.4
2023 Sweeper 0.9 1 141 13.4 47 .196 .283 .256 29.1 29.8 18.4 .200 .334 .237 21.9
2023 Curveball -0.2 0 134 12.7 23 .227 .545 .337 18.2 26.1 17.1 .306 .627 .407 50.0
2023 Changeup 5.8 3 43 4.1 9 .556 .667 .539 20.0 0.0 0.0 .431 .562 .431 44.4
2022 4-Seamer 0.1 1 884 33.2 196 .269 .409 .348 23.9 25.0 17.0 .220 .364 .306 29.3
2022 Sinker -1.4 -8 592 22.2 164 .305 .397 .364 13.4 7.3 21.4 .317 .425 .373 38.9
2022 Sweeper -1.0 -4 431 16.2 126 .183 .252 .226 28.1 33.3 21.9 .220 .343 .270 38.2
2022 Curveball 2.3 9 411 15.4 97 .275 .429 .337 20.0 18.6 15.1 .250 .379 .298 41.1
2022 Changeup 1.4 3 175 6.6 52 .326 .457 .407 14.1 11.5 15.8 .256 .384 .325 47.5
2022 Slider 1.4 2 168 6.3 51 .267 .467 .357 28.0 21.6 22.4 .267 .438 .350 38.2
2021 4-Seamer 0.3 3 1,054 56.7 253 .313 .495 .390 17.7 19.8 17.6 .282 .473 .368 46.5
2021 Cutter 0.7 3 446 24.0 133 .263 .398 .326 30.5 24.8 19.0 .238 .358 .301 47.7
2021 Curveball 4.7 13 270 14.5 67 .452 .565 .465 12.8 11.9 9.8 .390 .542 .425 50.0
2021 Changeup 3.0 3 88 4.7 16 .385 .462 .434 6.7 6.3 12.5 .373 .542 .450 50.0
2020 4-Seamer -0.7 -1 214 55.6 50 .184 .395 .352 18.2 12.0 11.1 .246 .553 .421 53.1
2020 Cutter -1.5 -1 84 21.8 17 .000 .000 .206 37.5 35.3 17.6 .052 .060 .241 16.7
2020 Curveball -0.3 0 75 19.5 18 .118 .471 .261 13.0 22.2 13.3 .214 .579 .345 30.8
2020 Changeup 6.3 1 12 3.1 2 .000 .000 .350 0.0 0.0 0.0 .182 .184 .446 0.0
2019 4-Seamer 2.5 11 448 48.1 98 .461 .719 .515 17.5 22.4 18.0 .314 .460 .352 42.0
2019 Cutter -0.6 -1 157 16.8 47 .200 .289 .277 47.8 38.3 29.5 .187 .304 .229 29.6
2019 Curveball -3.4 -4 120 12.9 35 .133 .133 .183 33.3 37.1 25.5 .155 .196 .215 11.1
2019 Changeup 10.5 3 28 3.0 5 .800 1.000 .790 14.3 0.0 0.0 .343 .421 .328 60.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Changeup 11 89.0 95 16.3 1:30 2:00 -30
2020 Curveball 71 78.2 84 18.8 7:00 6:45 15
2020 Cutter 63 87.4 32 5.7 11:00 10:00 60
2020 4-Seam Fastball 191 94.0 91 17.7 1:00 12:45 15
2021 Changeup 87 89.9 96 16.5 1:30 2:00 -30
2021 Curveball 268 78.6 90 20.2 7:00 7:00 0
2021 Cutter 444 86.1 25 4.1 9:15 8:30 45
2021 4-Seam Fastball 1,051 93.8 85 16.6 1:00 12:45 15
2022 Changeup 169 91.2 96 16.0 2:00 2:30 -30
2022 Curveball 407 78.6 93 21.8 7:00 7:00 0
2022 4-Seam Fastball 864 95.5 84 16.2 1:15 1:00 15
2022 Sinker 589 94.4 82 18.6 1:00 2:00 -60
2022 Slider 160 87.1 32 6.5 8:45 8:15 30
2022 Sweeper 425 83.2 61 18.9 7:45 8:30 -45
2023 Changeup 43 90.8 95 17.9 2:00 2:45 -45
2023 Curveball 133 78.1 92 22.0 7:15 7:15 0
2023 Cutter 248 90.6 43 7.0 12:00 11:00 60
2023 4-Seam Fastball 264 95.5 87 17.8 1:15 1:00 15
2023 Sinker 215 94.2 83 19.4 1:15 2:00 -45
2023 Sweeper 135 83.1 64 20.4 8:00 8:45 -45
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2019 185 753 1 3 3 2 9
2020 87 385 -4 -6 4 4 -2
2021 469 1,858 6 -11 15 12 22
2022 686 2,661 -13 -8 14 10 3
2023 279 1,055 -8 -8 5 4 -8
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2019 932 51.5 73.5 82.5 29.9 47.7 41.4 63.4 51.7 24.9 9.4 85.9
2020 385 45.2 66.7 82.8 19.0 67.5 41.6 46.0 40.5 21.2 7.8 73.3
2021 1,858 50.2 66.6 86.3 25.5 58.5 41.4 56.0 46.1 20.2 7.3 80.0
2022 2,661 50.1 65.2 85.3 26.0 61.0 43.1 56.8 45.6 21.4 7.0 70.1
2023 1,055 57.3 65.1 80.9 28.2 63.8 41.5 64.2 49.3 22.9 9.9 70.2
Player 6,891 51.1 66.5 84.3 26.2 59.3 42.1 58.1 46.9 21.8 7.9 75.0
MLB 48.5 66.9 82.0 28.4 58.2 42.6 60.8 47.1 24.7 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2019 78 57 86 96 65 87 79 83 61 80 67 47 59 55 94 83 30
2020 11 82 19 3 7 46 10 47 20 18 1 15 2 36 69 61 27
2021 8 4 22 45 3 36 63 3 2 22 22 10 22 25 77 70 32
2022 33 29 47 64 20 13 52 63 56 29 38 17 13 74 87 64 49
2023 81 77 74 67 89 7 31 86 92 87 80 29 47 52 82 64 57
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.3 6 2.5 4 5 3 1 16.7
2020 24.1 4 3.9 0 0 5 1 25.0
2021 24.0 10 12.8 -3 5 12 3 30.0
2022 24.6 14 15.7 -2 8 16 3 21.4
2023 21.4 7 8.2 -1 1 6 4 57.1
Player 23.5 41 43.1 -2 19 42 12 29.3

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 6 3 1 6 4 1 4 2 3 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 2
2020 4 6 4 3 3 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 2 5 4 5 3 5 4 5 3 4 2 3 5 6 5 3
2021 10 14 11 15 15 14 15 13 9 9 10 18 10 9 14 15 10 12 12 15 12 11 17 15 9 11 17 15 13 12 11
2022 14 13 10 20 15 15 17 14 13 10 13 20 18 16 17 20 17 17 15 17 17 12 23 19 12 12 15 19 16 15 13
2023 7 7 7 8 10 8 8 7 8 7 8 9 11 8 9 11 9 8 9 9 6 7 10 8 5 7 9 8 10 9 7
Player 41 43 33 52 47 43 49 39 35 29 35 53 46 39 47 49 43 42 44 47 43 36 60 49 32 34 46 50 48 43 36
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2019 2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 93.4 91.9 -1.5 91.5 -0.4 95.1 3.6 93.4 -1.7
Offspeed Velocity 91.0 88.8 -2.2 89.8 1.0 91.2 1.4 90.8 -0.4
Breaking Velocity 81.1 78.1 -3.0 78.5 0.4 82.0 3.5 80.6 -1.4
Exit Velocity 87.2 88.5 1.3 91.5 3.0 87.9 -3.6 86.4 -1.5
Launch Angle 10.9 14.3 3.4 11.5 -2.8 7.8 -3.7 8.9 1.1
Barrel % 5.5 11.5 6.0 6.8 -4.7 7.1 0.3 9.2 2.1
Hard Hit % 35.3 42.3 7.0 47.5 5.2 37.3 -10.2 28.7 -8.6
Sweet Spot % 33.8 19.2 -14.6 40.1 20.9 33.3 -6.8 37.9 4.6
xBA .236 .203 -0.033 .289 0.086 .253 -0.036 .216 -0.037
BA .348 .132 -0.216 .322 0.190 .266 -0.056 .209 -0.057
xwOBA .284 .371 0.087 .359 -0.012 .318 -0.041 .275 -0.043
wOBA .392 .303 -0.089 .379 0.076 .323 -0.056 .265 -0.058
xSLG .346 .467 0.121 .452 -0.015 .383 -0.069 .352 -0.031
SLG .546 .338 -0.208 .477 0.139 .388 -0.089 .333 -0.055
K% 28.6 18.4 -10.2 19.6 1.2 20.1 0.5 30.5 10.4
BB% 7.0 20.7 13.7 10.4 -10.3 8.7 -1.7 5.7 -3.0
Swing % 51.7 40.5 -11.2 46.1 5.6 45.6 -0.5 49.3 3.7
Whiff% 24.9 21.2 -3.7 20.2 -1.0 21.4 1.2 22.9 1.5
In Zone % 51.5 45.2 -6.3 50.2 5.0 50.1 -0.1 57.3 7.2
Out of Zone % 48.5 54.8 6.3 49.8 -5.0 49.9 0.1 42.7 -7.2
Out of Zone Swing % 29.9 19.0 -10.9 25.5 6.5 26.0 0.5 28.2 2.2
First Pitch Swing % 31.7 18.4 -13.3 29.6 11.2 25.6 -4.0 28.7 3.1
First Pitch Strike % 63.4 46.0 -17.4 56.0 10.0 56.8 0.8 64.2 7.4
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2019 205 .378 113 19 16.8 92 25 27.2
2020 87 .303 36 21 58.3 51 26 51.0
2021 445 .377 230 15 6.5 215 143 66.5
2022 686 .323 357 54 15.1 329 148 45.0
2023 279 .265 131 0 0.0 148 0 0.0

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2019 181 15.8 38.1% 1.7% 122 22.8 0.0% 5.7%
2020 139 17.2 14.4% 0.7% 48 23.3 0.0% 14.6%
2021 481 16.9 28.1% 0.6% 342 22.4 0.0% 7.9%
2022 762 15.0 50.3% 1.4% 474 21.5 0.0% 4.2%
2023 160 11.8 93.8% 0.0% 92 17.5 3.3% 0.0%
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Pitch Distribution