Solely a shortstop in his first three seasons at an Atlanta high school, Church took the mound when a summer teammate bet him that he couldn’t reach 88 mph with his fastball and responded by hitting 90. The Rangers loved the athleticism and upside he showed in sporadic mound appearances as a senior to pay him an over-slot $300,000 bonus as an 18th-rounder in 2019. He has struck out one-third of the hitters he faced in pro ball and made his big league debut with a scoreless inning last September after missing the bulk of the 2024 season with a strained rotator cuff.
Church can make hitters look silly with three different pitches, the most devasting of which is a mid-80s slider with two-plane depth at its best. It pairs extremely well with a fastball that sits at 95-97 mph and maxes out at 99 with tremendous carry, though it can straighten out at times. In the Arizona Fall League last offseason, he unveiled a nasty 89-93 mph splitter that dove at the plate.
Church is athletic and explodes down the mound to create good extension in his delivery, which features some effort. He has closer upside but will have to throw more strikes after his walk rate jumped from 7 percent in Class A to 12 percent in Double-A and Triple-A. Barring a return of shoulder problems, he could play a key role in Texas’ bullpen this season.
Church played exclusively at shortstop in his first three seasons as an Atlanta prepster until a summer teammate bet him he couldn't touch 88 mph off the mound -- and he responded by reaching 90. He showed enough during sporadic pitching appearances as a senior to earn an over-slot $300,000 bonus as an 18th-rounder in 2019, though the pandemic delayed his pro debut until 2021. He has shot from Single-A to Triple-A in the past three years, striking out 157 in 111 innings.
More athletic and possessing more arm speed than most pitchers, Church generates two pitches that grade as plus-plus when they're on. He has added about 5 mph in fastball velocity since turning pro and now deals at 94-97 and touches 99 with tremendous carry on his four-seamer. His mid-80s slider features two-plane depth at its best, and at times, turns into a harder, tighter cutter that's also nasty.
After pounding the strike zone and walking just 2.6 batters per nine innings in his first two seasons, Church's rate soared to 5.5 last year as he lost his direction toward the plate and trust in his fastball. He has late-inning upside but will need to throw more strikes with his heater and command his slider/cutter better. He worked on adding a two-seamer during the offseason to give him a fastball he might be able to control more.
Strictly a shortstop in his first three seasons as an Atlanta high schooler, Church became a pitcher after a summer teammate bet him he couldn't reach 88 mph off the mound and he responded by hitting 90. The Rangers saw enough during his sporadic pitching appearances as a senior to sign him for an over-slot $300,000 as an 18th-rounder in 2019. Though the pandemic delayed his pro debut until 2021, he needed just 13 months to rise from Single-A to Double-A while striking out 127 in 76 1/3 innings.
Church has impressive arm speed that produces two quality offerings that overmatch right-handers. His fastball has added about five mph since he turned pro, and he now sits at 94-97 with outstanding carry up in the zone. His upper-80s slider also can be a well-above-average pitch when it features two-plane depth, though it can get cutterish at times.
Church estimates that he pitched no more than two dozen innings before getting drafted, yet he pounded the strike zone for most of his pro career before tiring late last season in Double-A. His control has gone backward in 2023, though he's still missing plenty of bats. He has closer upside if he can regain his previous aptitude to locate his pitches where he wants.
Purely a shortstop in his first three seasons as an Atlanta high schooler, Church took up pitching when a summer teammate bet him he couldn't throw 88 mph off the mound and he responded by hitting 90. He showed promise during sporadic pitching appearances as a senior and signed with Texas for $300,000 as an 18th-rounder in 2019. The canceled 2020 season delayed his pro debut until 2021, but he has dominated ever since and advanced to Double-A by the end of June this year.
Church has a lightning-quick arm that produces two pitches that carve up right-handers. He has added about 5 mph of fastball velocity since turning pro and now deals at 94-97 with tremendous carry on his heater. His plus slider sits in the mid-80s and peaks at 88, often looking more like a cutter but occasionally showing some quality depth.
Though Church estimates he only pitched two dozen innings before getting drafted, his athleticism has enabled him to pound the strike zone since he entered pro ball. The Rangers are toying with the idea of trying him as a starter in 2023, a move that would require him to refine a changeup to better combat left-handers. If they decide not to mess with success, he's on course to join their bullpen next year.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
2025
--
0
0.6
-1
0
1
0
--
Player
--
0
0.6
-1
0
1
0
--
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2025
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
Player
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
