P | Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 1" 175 lbs | Age: 29
Draft: 2017 | Rd. 15, No. 462, Cleveland Indians | UC Santa Barbara
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 7 4 4.18 68 2 0 56 67 1.30
2024 0 0 4.22 11 0 0 10.2 8 1.13
2025 0 0 9.00 3 0 1 2 2 2.50
6 Seasons 9 5 4.34 136 3 1 116 115 1.31
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 68 7-4 4.18 56 67 1.30
2024 11 0-0 4.22 10.2 8 1.13
2025 3 0-0 9.00 2 2 2.50
6 Seasons 136 9-5 4.34 116 115 1.31
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
?

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2020 23 25 5 1 20.0 16.7 94.9 103.0 8.6 60.0 .563 1.079 .740 .689 .687 60.0 0.0 16.7 54.00 44.55
2021 24 176 31 0 0.0 0.0 84.1 108.8 13.3 32.3 .254 .309 .337 .340 .312 22.6 16.3 16.3 9.31 5.02
2022 25 593 104 8 7.7 5.3 88.5 111.8 13.7 31.7 .235 .372 .266 .310 .337 38.5 19.9 9.3 2.19 4.00
2023 26 878 157 15 9.6 6.3 89.6 115.4 16.3 39.5 .233 .414 .339 .298 .392 39.5 28.0 5.9 4.18 3.71
2024 27 145 30 2 6.7 4.8 91.0 108.2 16.2 40.0 .314 .499 .289 .364 .429 53.3 19.0 9.5 4.22 5.78
2025 28 44 5 1 20.0 9.1 86.7 104.6 41.1 40.0 .125 .466 .437 .405 .337 20.0 18.2 36.4 9.00 7.49
Player 1861 332 27 8.1 5.4 88.9 115.4 15.4 36.7 .244 .407 .319 .319 .374 38.9 23.1 9.0
MLB 7.2 4.9 88.6 122.9 12.4 33.3 .245 .404 .315 .315 .368 37.0 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Nelson relies on 3 pitches.
Slider
(54.5%) ,
Four Seamer
(43.2%) ,
Cutter
(2.3%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2020 60.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 60.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 0.0
2021 38.7 61.3 29.0 25.8 6.5 38.7 29.0 32.3 22.6 16.1 0.0 16.1 12.9 32.3
2022 41.3 58.7 30.8 23.1 4.8 34.6 46.2 19.2 22.1 15.4 3.8 12.5 30.8 15.4
2023 39.5 60.5 24.8 24.2 11.5 46.5 30.6 22.9 23.6 13.4 2.5 22.9 17.2 20.4
2024 36.7 63.3 10.0 40.0 13.3 53.3 20.0 26.7 26.7 3.3 6.7 26.7 16.7 20.0
2025 0.0 100.0 80.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 40.0
Player 39.5 60.5 26.5 25.0 9.0 41.9 35.2 22.9 22.6 13.9 3.0 19.3 21.4 19.9
MLB 44.2 55.8 24.0 24.7 7.1 37.4 37.4 25.1 20.6 17.6 5.9 16.7 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2020 0.0 20.0 0.0 60.0 0.0 20.0 16.7
2021 6.5 22.6 35.5 29.0 6.5 0.0 0.0
2022 5.8 31.7 26.0 23.1 5.8 7.7 5.3
2023 6.4 28.0 28.0 21.7 6.4 9.6 6.3
2024 0.0 33.3 20.0 26.7 13.3 6.7 4.8
2025 0.0 0.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 9.1
Player 5.4 28.6 27.7 23.5 6.6 8.1 5.4
MLB 4.0 32.4 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.2 4.9
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 4-Seam Fastball AZ L 19 89.9 17.2 0.2 7.3ARM 0.0 16.9 1.1 7.3ARM -0.8
2025 Cutter AZ L 1 88.5 20.2 6.4 7.6ARM -9.6 14.6 6.7 7.6ARM -9.5
2025 Slider AZ L 24 84.2 35.7 -1.5 2.0GLV -3.2 2.9 -0.9 2.0GLV -2.1
2024 Slider AZ L 73 83.5 36.2 -1.8 4.6GLV -1.3 2.8 -1.3 4.6GLV -0.2
2024 Cutter AZ L 31 87.4 25.3 2.9 1.1GLV -1.8 10.3 3.1 1.1GLV -0.9
2024 4-Seam Fastball AZ L 41 90.2 17.0 0.1 6.1ARM -0.7 16.6 0.9 6.1ARM -2.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 Slider -6.0 -1 24 54.5 4 .333 1.333 .675 40.0 25.0 14.3 .271 1.042 .577 50.0
2025 4-Seam Fastball 3.1 1 19 43.2 6 .000 .000 .233 0.0 16.7 50.0 .016 .034 .246 0.0
2025 Cutter -19.5 0 1 2.3 1 -- -- .700 -- 0.0 0.0 -- -- .700 --
2024 Slider 1.3 1 73 50.3 18 .176 .353 .250 37.8 33.3 20.7 .327 .562 .400 45.5
2024 4-Seam Fastball 1.9 1 41 28.3 14 .167 .167 .229 9.1 14.3 11.1 .205 .259 .271 50.0
2024 Cutter -1.5 0 31 21.4 9 .375 .875 .461 6.7 0.0 0.0 .450 .724 .442 66.7
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 4-Seam Fastball 19 89.9 94 17.7 11:00 11:15 -15
2025 Slider 24 84.2 27 2.9 1:30 1:45 -15
2024 Cutter 31 87.4 57 9.7 11:45 12:15 -30
2024 4-Seam Fastball 41 90.2 95 17.1 11:00 11:15 -15
2024 Slider 73 83.5 31 5.6 1:30 2:30 -60
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2020 6 25 0 0 -2 0 -2
2021 49 176 2 0 -2 -2 -1
2022 151 593 2 9 -5 -3 4
2023 238 878 -5 3 -2 -1 -5
2024 41 145 1 2 -1 0 1
2025 11 44 1 -1 0 0 -1
Player 496 1,861 2 12 -12 2 -5
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2020 25 60.0 66.7 80.0 30.0 66.7 52.0 83.3 52.0 23.1 12.0 66.7
2021 176 50.0 59.1 78.8 25.0 50.0 39.8 61.2 42.0 29.7 8.5 66.7
2022 593 46.7 67.1 82.3 31.6 57.0 42.0 57.6 48.2 26.6 7.8 87.0
2023 878 49.8 70.5 82.5 34.7 41.8 42.9 70.2 52.5 31.0 6.9 78.7
2024 145 56.6 67.1 87.3 30.2 47.4 40.7 73.2 51.0 23.0 10.3 100.0
2025 44 52.3 56.5 84.6 9.5 0.0 47.7 45.5 34.1 26.7 0.0 --
Player 1,861 49.5 67.7 82.5 31.8 47.8 42.4 65.3 49.6 28.7 7.5 82.1
MLB 48.9 67.0 82.5 28.4 58.0 42.7 61.1 47.3 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2022 19 30 17
2023 69 65 39 29 88 60 23 34 46 81 85 83 96 19 46 20
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2020 23.29 1 0.9 0 0 1 0 0.0
2022 22.00 1 2.3 -1 4 3 0 0.0
2023 23.41 14 12.4 2 0 10 5 35.7
2024 22.67 2 1.2 1 1 0 1 50.0
2025 24.21 1 1.0 0 0 1 0 0.0
Player 23.29 19 17.8 1 5 15 6 31.6
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2020 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
2022 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 5 2 3 2 2 4 1 1 4 4 5 3 1 2 1 3 5 2 2
2023 14 10 11 10 13 12 15 11 11 9 14 12 10 13 14 15 12 10 15 15 14 13 15 14 11 9 14 12 13 14 11
2024 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1
2025 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Player 19 16 15 15 18 17 21 16 15 13 18 16 18 18 20 20 17 17 19 19 21 20 23 20 15 14 19 18 22 19 16
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's batted balls allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

2025 +/-   2024 +/-   2023 +/-   2022 +/-   2021 +/-   2020
Results
BA .143 -.073 .216 -.051 .267 +.073 .194 -.062 .256 -.344 .600
xBA .125 -.189 .314 +.081 .233 -.002 .235 -.019 .254 -.309 .563
OBP .455 +.169 .286 -.028 .314 +.029 .285 -.123 .408 -.259 .667
xOBP .443 +.071 .372 +.090 .282 -.039 .321 -.085 .406 -.230 .636
SLG .571 +.166 .405 -.079 .484 +.185 .299 -.009 .308 -.892 1.200
xSLG .466 -.033 .499 +.085 .414 +.042 .372 +.063 .309 -.770 1.079
ISO .429 +.240 .189 -.028 .217 +.113 .104 +.053 .051 -.549 .600
xISO .341 +.156 .185 +.004 .181 +.044 .137 +.082 .055 -.462 .517
BABIP .000 -.214 .214 -.117 .331 +.088 .243 -.080 .323 -.177 .500
wOBA .437 +.148 .289 -.050 .339 +.073 .266 -.071 .337 -.403 .740
xwOBA .405 +.041 .364 +.066 .298 -.012 .310 -.030 .340 -.349 .689
wOBACON .407 +.082 .325 -.129 .454 +.182 .272 -.035 .307 -.442 .749
xwOBACON .337 -.092 .429 +.037 .392 +.055 .337 +.025 .312 -.375 .687
BACON .200 -.067 .267 -.116 .383 +.133 .250 -.073 .323 -.277 .600
xBACON .176 -.211 .387 +.053 .334 +.032 .302 -.018 .320 -.243 .563
Statcast Hit Metrics
Hard Hit % 20.0 -33.3 53.3 +13.8 39.5 +1.0 38.5 +15.9 22.6 -37.4 60.0
Avg Exit Velocity 86.7 -4.3 91.0 +1.4 89.6 +1.1 88.5 +4.4 84.1 -10.8 94.9
Launch Angle Sweet-Spot % 40.0 0.0 40.0 +0.5 39.5 +7.8 31.7 -0.6 32.3 -27.7 60.0
Barrel % 20.0 +13.3 6.7 -2.9 9.6 +1.9 7.7 +7.7 0.0 -20.0 20.0
Avg Launch Angle 41.1 +24.9 16.2 -0.1 16.3 +2.6 13.7 +0.4 13.3 +4.7 8.6
Statcast Bat Tracking
Bat Speed 68.6 -3.7 72.3 -0.4 72.7 -- -- -- -- -- --
Attack Angle 16° -2° 18° +3° 15° -- -- -- -- -- --
Ideal Attack Angle % 75.0 +23.9 51.1 -9.9 61.0 -- -- -- -- -- --
Attack Direction -15° -5° -10° -1° -9° -- -- -- -- -- --
Swing Path - Tilt 35° +1° 35° +1° 33° -- -- -- -- -- --
Swing Length 7.7 -0.1 7.8 +0.2 7.6 -- -- -- -- -- --
Statcast Pitch Metrics
Fastball Velocity 89.9 +0.9 89.0 -2.2 91.2 -0.7 91.9 +1.8 90.1 -- --
Breaking Velocity 84.2 +0.7 83.5 -1.9 85.4 +1.1 84.3 +1.8 82.5 +0.2 82.3
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 90.3
Batted Ball Results
Barrels 1 -1 2 -13 15 +7 8 +8 0 -1 1
Popup % 20.0 +6.7 13.3 +1.8 11.5 +6.7 4.8 -1.7 6.5 +6.5 0.0
Flyball % 80.0 +70.0 10.0 -14.8 24.8 -6.0 30.8 +1.8 29.0 +9.0 20.0
Line Drive % 0.0 -40.0 40.0 +15.8 24.2 +1.1 23.1 -2.7 25.8 +5.8 20.0
Groundball % 0.0 -36.7 36.7 -2.8 39.5 -1.8 41.3 +2.6 38.7 -21.3 60.0
Pull % 20.0 -33.3 53.3 +6.8 46.5 +11.9 34.6 -4.1 38.7 +18.7 20.0
Straight Away % 40.0 +20.0 20.0 -10.6 30.6 -15.6 46.2 +17.2 29.0 -51.0 80.0
Opposite Field % 40.0 +13.3 26.7 +3.8 22.9 +3.7 19.2 -13.1 32.3 +32.3 0.0
Weak Contact % 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6.4 6.4 +0.6 5.8 -0.7 6.5 +6.5 0.0
Pull Airball % 20.0 -6.7 26.7 +3.8 22.9 +10.4 12.5 -3.6 16.1 -3.9 20.0
Topped Contact % 0.0 -33.3 33.3 +5.3 28.0 -3.7 31.7 +9.1 22.6 +2.6 20.0
Under Contact % 80.0 +60.0 20.0 -8.0 28.0 +2.0 26.0 -9.5 35.5 +35.5 0.0
Flare/Burner Contact % 0.0 -26.7 26.7 +5.0 21.7 -1.4 23.1 -5.9 29.0 -31.0 60.0
Solid Contact % 0.0 -13.3 13.3 +6.9 6.4 +0.6 5.8 -0.7 6.5 +6.5 0.0
HR/FB % 25.0 -41.7 66.7 +35.9 30.8 +27.7 3.1 +3.1 0.0 -100.0 100.0
Popups 1 -3 4 -14 18 +13 5 +3 2 +2 0
Flyballs 4 +1 3 -36 39 +7 32 +23 9 +8 1
Line Drives 0 -12 12 -26 38 +14 24 +16 8 +7 1
Groundballs 0 -11 11 -51 62 +19 43 +31 12 +9 3
Plate Discipline
In Zone % 52.3 -4.3 56.6 +6.8 49.8 +3.1 46.7 -3.3 50.0 -10.0 60.0
Out of Zone % 47.7 +4.3 43.4 -6.8 50.2 -3.1 53.3 +3.3 50.0 +10.0 40.0
Edge % 47.7 +7.0 40.7 -2.2 42.9 +0.9 42.0 +2.2 39.8 -12.2 52.0
Zone Swing % 56.5 -10.6 67.1 -3.4 70.5 +3.4 67.1 +8.0 59.1 -7.6 66.7
Out of Zone Swing % 9.5 -20.7 30.2 -4.5 34.7 +3.1 31.6 +6.6 25.0 -5.0 30.0
In Zone Contact % 84.6 -2.7 87.3 +4.8 82.5 +0.2 82.3 +3.5 78.8 -1.2 80.0
Out of Zone Contact % 0.0 -47.4 47.4 +5.6 41.8 -15.2 57.0 +7.0 50.0 -16.7 66.7
Whiff % 26.7 +3.7 23.0 -8.0 31.0 +4.4 26.6 -3.1 29.7 +6.6 23.1
First Strike % 45.5 -27.7 73.2 +3.0 70.2 +12.6 57.6 -3.6 61.2 -22.1 83.3
First Pitch Swing % 27.3 -16.6 43.9 +4.4 39.5 +9.7 29.8 +5.3 24.5 +7.8 16.7
Swing % 34.1 -16.9 51.0 -1.5 52.5 +4.3 48.2 +6.2 42.0 -10.0 52.0
Meatball Swing % 0.0 -- 100.0 +21.3 78.7 -8.3 87.0 +20.3 66.7 0.0 66.7
Meatball % 0.0 -10.3 10.3 +3.4 6.9 -0.9 7.8 -0.7 8.5 -3.5 12.0
Zone Swing & Miss % 15.4 +2.7 12.7 -4.8 17.5 -0.2 17.7 -3.5 21.2 +1.2 20.0
Out of Zone Swing & Miss % 100.0 +47.4 52.6 -5.6 58.2 +15.2 43.0 -7.0 50.0 +16.7 33.3
In Zone 23 -59 82 -355 437 +160 277 +189 88 +73 15
Out of Zone 21 -42 63 -378 441 +125 316 +228 88 +78 10
Edge 21 -38 59 -318 377 +128 249 +179 70 +57 13
In Zone Swings 13 -42 55 -253 308 +122 186 +134 52 +42 10
Out of Zone Swings 2 -17 19 -134 153 +53 100 +78 22 +19 3
In Zone Swing & Misses 2 -5 7 -47 54 +21 33 +22 11 +9 2
Out of Zone Swing & Misses 2 -8 10 -79 89 +46 43 +32 11 +10 1
Basic
Pitches 44 -101 145 -733 878 +285 593 +417 176 +151 25
PA 11 -31 42 -197 239 +88 151 +102 49 +43 6
AB 7 -30 37 -184 221 +87 134 +95 39 +34 5
Hits 1 -7 8 -51 59 +33 26 +16 10 +7 3
Singles 0 -5 5 -30 35 +21 14 +6 8 +6 2
Doubles 0 -1 1 -11 12 +1 11 +9 2 +2 0
Triples 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Home Runs 1 -1 2 -10 12 +11 1 +1 0 -1 1
Walks 4 0 4 -10 14 0 14 +6 8 +7 1
Strikeouts 2 -6 8 -59 67 +37 30 +22 8 +8 0
K% 18.2 -0.8 19.0 -9.0 28.0 +8.1 19.9 +3.6 16.3 +16.3 0.0
BB% 36.4 +26.9 9.5 +3.6 5.9 -3.4 9.3 -7.0 16.3 -0.4 16.7
HBP 0 0 0 -1 1 -2 3 +1 2 +2 0
Batted Balls 5 -25 30 -127 157 +53 104 +73 31 +26 5
Number of Fastballs 20 -52 72 -286 358 +143 215 +111 104 +104 0
Number of Offspeed 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -8 8
Number of Breaking 24 -49 73 -447 520 +143 377 +377 0 0 0
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2020 Shifts 6 .740 5 0 0.0 1 0 0.0
2021 Shifts 49 .337 35 3 8.6 14 4 28.6
2022 Shifts 150 .259 84 10 11.9 66 22 33.3
2023 Shades 238 .339 123 15 12.2 115 49 42.6
2024 Shades 41 .289 19 0 0.0 22 9 40.9
2025 Shades 11 .437 7 1 14.3 4 1 25.0
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2020 4 16.3 25.0% 0.0% 5 17.0 0.0% 0.0%
2021 40 16.2 25.0% 0.0% 44 18.9 9.1% 0.0%
2022 152 17.9 11.2% 0.7% 111 19.0 1.8% 0.9%
2023 234 14.5 58.5% 0.9% 117 17.0 14.5% 1.7%
2024 29 15.2 44.8% 3.4% 28 17.0 10.7% 0.0%
2025 7 15.2 28.6% 0.0% 15 17.9 6.7% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution