Kyle Nelson
P | Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 1" 175LBS | Age: 27
Draft: 2017 | Rd: 15, #462, Cleveland Indians | UC Santa Barbara
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 0 0 9.31 10 0 0 9.2 8 1.86
2022 2 1 2.19 43 1 0 37 30 1.08
2023 7 4 4.18 68 2 0 56 67 1.30
4 Seasons 9 5 4.27 122 3 0 103.1 105 1.31
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 10 0-0 9.31 9.2 8 1.86
2022 43 2-1 2.19 37 30 1.08
2023 68 7-4 4.18 56 67 1.30
4 Seasons 122 9-5 4.27 103.1 105 1.31
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2020 23 25 5 1 20.0 16.7 94.9 103.0 8.6 60.0 .563 1.079 .740 .689 .687 60.0 0.0 16.7 54.00 44.55
2021 24 176 31 0 0.0 0.0 84.1 108.8 13.3 32.3 .255 .309 .337 .340 .313 22.6 16.3 16.3 9.31 4.99
2022 25 593 104 8 7.7 5.3 88.5 111.8 13.7 31.7 .235 .373 .266 .311 .338 38.5 19.9 9.3 2.19 4.02
2023 26 878 157 15 9.6 6.3 89.6 115.4 16.3 39.5 .233 .414 .339 .299 .392 39.5 28.0 5.9 4.18 3.74
Player 1672 297 24 8.1 5.4 88.7 115.4 14.9 36.4 .240 .398 .319 .313 .370 37.7 23.6 8.3
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.3 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Nelson relies on 3 pitches.
Slider
(59.2%) ,
4-Seam Fastball
(32.1%) ,
Cutter
(8.7%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2020 60.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 60.0 0.0 20.0 16.7
2021 38.7 29.0 25.8 6.5 38.7 29.0 32.3 6.5 22.6 35.5 29.0 6.5 0.0 0.0
2022 41.3 30.8 23.1 4.8 34.6 46.2 19.2 5.8 31.7 26.0 23.1 5.8 7.7 5.3
2023 39.5 24.8 24.2 11.5 46.5 30.6 22.9 6.4 28.0 28.0 21.7 6.4 9.6 6.3
Player 40.4 27.3 23.9 8.4 41.1 36.7 22.2 6.1 28.6 27.6 23.6 6.1 8.1 5.4
MLB 44.6 23.5 24.9 7.0 37.0 37.6 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 4-Seamer AZ L 282 92.0 16.4 0.0 0 4.6 -2.8 -38
2023 Slider AZ L 520 85.4 36.1 0.0 0 5.1 0.0 -1
2023 Cutter AZ L 76 88.3 27.1 0.4 2 2.2 -0.2 -7
2022 4-Seamer AZ L 213 91.9 17.4 -1.1 -7 3.9 -3.8 -49
2022 Curveball AZ L 1 77.0 50.1 -5.4 -10 12.9 1.9 17
2022 Cutter AZ L 2 90.8 21.2 2.8 12 0.3 -1.5 -127
2022 Sweeper AZ L 1 84.8 35.4 -1.9 -5 12.4 0.8 7
2022 Slider AZ L 376 84.3 38.2 0.9 3 6.2 0.4 6
2021 4-Seamer CLE L 31 92.9 16.0 0.1 1 5.9 -2.1 -26
2021 Sweeper CLE L 72 82.5 38.1 -2.4 -6 11.1 -3.1 -22
2021 Cutter CLE L 73 88.9 26.8 -0.2 -1 4.7 2.9 157
2020 Sweeper CLE L 17 82.3 35.0 -5.1 -13 9.8 -4.8 -33
2020 Changeup CLE L 8 90.3 15.7 -13.3 -46 9.0 -5.9 -40
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 Slider -0.9 -5 520 59.2 131 .228 .447 .314 40.4 36.6 25.3 .219 .385 .279 32.9
2023 4-Seamer -1.2 -3 282 32.1 88 .321 .556 .407 14.1 19.3 27.9 .260 .467 .334 43.1
2023 Cutter 2.1 2 76 8.7 19 .294 .412 .328 15.9 10.5 11.8 .213 .375 .274 56.3
2022 Slider 0.4 1 376 63.4 104 .216 .351 .290 31.5 24.0 19.4 .250 .422 .317 38.9
2022 4-Seamer 0.0 0 213 35.9 46 .135 .162 .262 12.8 10.9 10.9 .197 .242 .291 37.5
2022 Cutter 1.2 0 2 0.3 -- -- -- -- -- 0.0 -- -- -- --
2022 Curveball -3.7 0 1 0.2 -- -- -- -- -- 0.0 -- -- -- --
2022 Sweeper -10.1 0 1 0.2 1 -- -- .700 -- 0.0 0.0 -- -- .700 --
2021 Cutter 0.8 1 73 41.5 24 .227 .227 .246 23.7 8.3 13.3 .261 .302 .290 15.0
2021 Sweeper -5.3 -4 72 40.9 18 .267 .400 .356 33.3 33.3 25.0 .228 .299 .306 33.3
2021 4-Seamer -8.8 -3 31 17.6 7 .500 .500 .629 44.4 0.0 0.0 .380 .466 .604 50.0
2020 Sweeper -3.3 -1 17 68.0 4 .500 .500 .450 20.0 0.0 0.0 .510 .578 .472 50.0
2020 Changeup -36.5 -3 8 32.0 2 1.000 4.000 1.350 33.3 0.0 0.0 .773 3.083 1.123 100.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2023 Cutter 75 88.3 47 7.7 12:30 12:45 -15
2023 4-Seam Fastball 276 92.0 86 15.9 11:15 11:30 -15
2023 Slider 502 85.4 34 5.8 2:15 3:00 -45
2022 4-Seam Fastball 212 91.9 84 14.9 11:15 11:30 -15
2022 Slider 375 84.3 39 7.0 2:30 3:15 -45
2021 Cutter 70 89.0 44 8.8 12:15 1:15 -60
2021 4-Seam Fastball 31 92.9 88 16.2 11:00 11:15 -15
2021 Sweeper 72 82.5 51 12.1 3:45 3:00 45
2020 Sweeper 14 82.2 43 11.7 3:00 2:15 45
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 49 176 0 -1 -3 -3 -6
2022 151 593 1 8 -5 -3 1
2023 260 969 -8 6 -4 -2 -8
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2020 25 60.0 66.7 80.0 30.0 66.7 52.0 83.3 52.0 23.1 12.0 66.7
2021 176 50.0 59.1 78.8 25.0 50.0 39.8 61.2 42.0 29.7 8.5 66.7
2022 593 46.7 67.1 82.3 31.6 57.0 42.0 57.6 48.2 25.9 7.8 87.0
2023 878 49.8 70.5 82.1 34.7 41.2 42.9 70.2 52.5 30.4 6.9 78.7
Player 1,672 48.9 68.1 81.8 32.5 47.8 42.4 65.1 49.9 28.7 7.5 80.0
MLB 48.6 67.0 82.0 28.5 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2022 19 30 17
2023 67 65 39 29 88 60 23 34 46 81 85 80 96 19 43 20
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2020 23.3 1 0.9 0 0 1 0 0.0
2022 22.0 1 2.3 -1 3 3 0 0.0
2023 23.4 14 12.5 2 0 10 5 35.7
Player 23.3 16 15.7 0 3 14 5 31.3

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2020 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
2022 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 5 2 3 2 2 4 1 1 4 3 4 3 1 2 1 3 5 2 3
2023 14 10 12 10 13 13 15 11 11 9 14 12 10 13 14 15 12 10 15 15 14 13 15 14 11 9 14 13 13 14 11
Player 16 14 15 12 15 16 18 14 13 11 16 14 15 16 18 18 15 15 17 17 19 17 20 18 12 12 16 17 19 17 15
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2020 2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 0.0 90.1 0.0 91.9 1.8 91.2 -0.7
Offspeed Velocity 90.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Breaking Velocity 82.3 82.5 0.2 84.3 1.8 85.4 1.1
Exit Velocity 94.9 84.1 -10.8 88.5 4.4 89.6 1.1
Launch Angle 8.6 13.3 4.7 13.7 0.4 16.3 2.6
Barrel % 20.0 0.0 -20.0 7.7 7.7 9.6 1.9
Hard Hit % 60.0 22.6 -37.4 38.5 15.9 39.5 1.0
Sweet Spot % 60.0 32.3 -27.7 31.7 -0.6 39.5 7.8
xBA .563 .255 -0.308 .235 -0.020 .233 -0.002
BA .600 .256 -0.344 .194 -0.062 .267 0.073
xwOBA .689 .340 -0.349 .311 -0.029 .299 -0.012
wOBA .740 .337 -0.403 .266 -0.071 .339 0.073
xSLG 1.079 .309 -0.770 .373 0.064 .414 0.041
SLG 1.200 .308 -0.892 .299 -0.009 .484 0.185
K% 0.0 16.3 16.3 19.9 3.6 28.0 8.1
BB% 16.7 16.3 -0.4 9.3 -7.0 5.9 -3.4
Swing % 52.0 42.0 -10.0 48.2 6.2 52.5 4.3
Whiff% 23.1 29.7 6.6 25.9 -3.8 30.4 4.5
In Zone % 60.0 50.0 -10.0 46.7 -3.3 49.8 3.1
Out of Zone % 40.0 50.0 10.0 53.3 3.3 50.2 -3.1
Out of Zone Swing % 30.0 25.0 -5.0 31.6 6.6 34.7 3.1
First Pitch Swing % 16.7 24.5 7.8 29.8 5.3 39.5 9.7
First Pitch Strike % 83.3 61.2 -22.1 57.6 -3.6 70.2 12.6
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2020 Shifts 6 .740 5 0 0.0 1 0 0.0
2021 Shifts 49 .337 35 3 8.6 14 6 42.9
2022 Shifts 150 .259 84 18 21.4 66 34 51.5
2023 Shades 238 .339 123 15 12.2 115 49 42.6
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases Empty