Hurt was a Top 100 Draft prospect coming out of the San Diego high school ranks in 2017, but a combination of a knee injury and a strong commitment to Southern Cal led to him not being selected until the 34th round and he headed to campus. He’s been up-and-down for much of his Trojans career, though he did take over as the Friday night starter during his sophomore year, a role he held at the start of the 2020 season before things were shut down.
Hurt has long had the size and pure stuff to make him a very strong pitching prospect. His fastball will sit in the 92-94 range and he will top out at 97 mph, and he could find more consistent velocity at the top end of that scale as he continues to add strength to his 6-foot-3 frame. His best secondary pitch is his changeup, which could be a plus pitch in time. He throws both a hard slider in the upper-80s and a slower, upper-70s curve, both of which show glimpses but are inconsistent breaking pitches.
The right-hander hasn’t always commanded his stuff well or maintained it deep into starts, with the sharpness of his stuff often varying from outing to outing. He entered the spring as one of the more enigmatic college pitching prospects in this class and there wasn’t really enough time for scouts’ questions to be completely answered this spring.
A potential 2017 first-rounder as a California high schooler before injuring his knee, Hurt flashed quality stuff but recorded a 5.06 ERA in three college seasons at Southern California. The Marlins took him in the fifth and final round of the shortened 2020 Draft, only to trade him with Alex Vesia to the Dodgers for Dylan Floro eight months later. After battling wrist and knee ailments as well as the strike zone during his first two years as a pro, Hurt led all Minor League pitchers who worked as many as his 92 innings in strikeout rate (14.9 per nine innings) strikeout percentage (39.2) and strikeout minus walk percentage (27.8) in 2023. Los Angeles' 2023 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, he made his big league debut with a perfect two-inning outing in September, but barely pitched this year before requiring midseason Tommy John surgery.
Before his elbow gave out, some club officials believed Hurt had the best stuff in the Dodgers' system, beginning with a fastball that operates at 94-97 mph, touches 99 and plays even better than its velocity thanks to its low release height and carry. His changeup remains his best secondary pitch and gives him a second well above-average weapon at its best, arriving in the upper 80s before dropping at the plate. His tight mid-80s slider/cutter improved and became a reliably solid offering last year, and he also has a decent upper-70s curveball with bigger break.
Hurt averaged 5.6 walks per nine innings in college and 6.7 per nine in his first two pro seasons, but he cut that rate to 4.2 last season. Staying healthy helped his control and command, and so did understanding that he doesn't have to be perfect with his quality stuff to get hitters out. If he can regain his health and stuff, he has a ceiling as a mid-rotation starter, and also could develop into a high-leverage reliever.
Hurt displayed first-round potential before injuring his knee as a California high school senior in 2017 and continued to flash premium stuff at Southern California despite posting a 5.06 ERA in three college seasons. The Marlins selected him in the fifth round of the shortened 2020 Draft, then dealt him and Alex Vesia to the Dodgers for Dylan Floro just eight months later. Hampered by wrist and knee issues as well as control woes in his first two years as a pro, he dominated in the first month of the 2023 season in Double-A.
Hurt has some of the best pure stuff in the system, starting with a 93-96 mph fastball that reaches 98 and stands out with its low release height and carry. His best secondary offering is a plus upper-80s changeup with plenty of fade and deception. He generates high spin rates on a tight slider with similar velocity and a downer curveball in the low 80s, both of which can be weapons when he can land them in the strike zone.
Though he comes with a history of shaky control and even shakier command, Hurt has begun 2023 by throwing more strikes. He improved his conditioning during the offseason and is fully healthy, giving the Dodgers hope that he may be ready to take off. He has the arsenal to become a mid-rotation starter but it would be more realistic to project him as a multi-inning reliever.
Hurt showed first-round upside before injuring his knee as a California high school senior in 2017, and he continued to flash premium stuff while posting a 5.06 ERA in three college seasons at Southern California. The Marlins took him in the fifth round of the shortened 2020 Draft, then traded him and Alex Vesia to the Dodgers for Dylan Floro eight months later. Hurt worked just 21 innings in his pro debut last year because of a wrist injury, then dominated High-A hitters in 2022 before getting knocked around in Double-A.
Hurt's arsenal features four pitches that all grade as plus or better when they're on. His 93-96 mph fastball touches 98 and is a data darling with a low release height and plenty of carry. His best secondary offering is an upper-80s changeup with significant fade and deception, and he also has a tight slider with similar velocity and a downer curveball in the low 80s.
While there never has been any question about Hurt's pure stuff, he's still learning to translate it into consistent success. He has a history of shaky control and even shakier command, and getting in better shape might help him repeat his delivery more easily and do a better job of locating his pitches while maintaining quality deeper into games. He has the upside of a mid-rotation starter but may be more of a multi-inning reliever.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
Team
Avg HR Trot
Actual HR
xHR
HR-xHR
Doubters
Mostly Gone
No Doubters
No Doubter %
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
LAD
