The fact that Curtis is not only pitching professionally but doing it well is somewhat miraculous. He had ulnar transposition surgery that forced him out for the 2021 season, then he needed a second surgery because stitches from the first procedure were on his nerve. Doctors thought he was done. But he moved to Arizona State for the 2023 season and showed enough for the Pirates to give him $500,000 in the 12th round to start his pro career. He missed time again in 2024 with a hamstring injury, but a healthy 2025 campaign enabled him to pitch his way to Double-A for the first time.
Curtis has some of the best overall stuff in the entire system, all coming from a 6-foot-5 frame. He misses a tremendous amount of bats with a number of offerings, and his mid-90s fastball isn’t even the best one in that regard. His 90-mph cutter with gyro slider-like shape elicited a 41 percent miss rate last year. His depthy slider, which is thrown in the mid-80s and more horizontal, missed bats at a 47 percent rate. His low-80s changeup plays really well off his fastball with a ton of armside run to produce a 45 percent miss rate, and he’ll fold in an occasional upper-70s curve to boot.
What’s even scarier is that Curtis has been working on a cut-ride fastball, up to 96 mph with 18 inches of vertical break. He can get into trouble when he doesn’t trust his stuff, leading to walks, but his BB/9 rate was just 2.44 from July 1 on last year. If that trend continues, he has every chance to be a starter in the big leagues.
Curtis' path to pro ball has not been an easy one. He had unlar transposition surgery that kept him from the mound in 2021 and then needed a second surgery because stitches from the first were on his nerve and doctors thought he may never throw again. He transferred to Arizona State for the 2023 season and stayed healthy, albeit with uneven results. His size and pure stuff as a redshirt sophomore intrigued the Pirates enough to pay him $500,000 in the 12th round of that summer's Draft. A hamstring injury sidelined him for a spell during his first full season, but he showed off serious swing-and-miss stuff with Single-A Bradenton and then in the Arizona Fall League.
Curtis has as many as five pitches in his arsenal, many of which miss a very high number of bats. It starts with his 95-96 mph fastball, a pitch that touches 98-99 mph. When he holds the vertical break on his heater, it can be 16 inches and above, everything else plays off of that, though sometimes his mechanics get out of whack and his fastball lacks life and impact. Every other pitch he throws elicited a miss percentage north of 45 percent in 2024, led by a 90-91 mph cutter (51 percent miss rate), but he also has a mid-80s slider and upper-70s curve that confound hitters, as does his fading changeup.
What Curtis has not done consistently is find the strike zone with his electric stuff. The 6-foot-5 right-hander walked 4.7 per nine last year, and his fastball got hit when his delivery wasn't in sync. He needs to maintain his posture to hold the heater, and if he can corral his secondary offerings better, he has a chance to start long term.
Curtis initially stayed in his home state to attend Texas A&M to pitch in college. But ulnar transposition surgery wiped out his 2021 season, and he made just five starts in 2022 as he needed to have stitches from his elbow removed that were causing issues. He had mixed results following a transfer to Arizona State in 2023 but showed enough good stuff and health for the Pirates to take him in Round 12 and go over slot to sign him for close to $500,000. If his the leap forward with his stuff so far in the early stages of his career is any indication, that could prove to be a bargain.
A 6-foot-5 right-hander, Curtis has a chance to start long-term thanks to a deep arsenal of rapidly-improving stuff. He'll throw both two-seam and four-seam fastballs and has seen an uptick in velocity, now getting his fastball up to 98 mph regularly. He changed his slider to a cutter grip last year with good success, and it's a bat-missing pitch in the upper-80s that tops out at 92 mph. He can fold in a slower upper-70s curve with good depth and also has low-80s changeup with fade.
Curtis entered pro ball with some command issues, and it's taken him a little time to harness his new-and-improved stuff, but he was starting to figure things out more consistently as his first full season wore on. He has an up arrow next to his name, with the Pirates believing he could land in a big league rotation if the gains stick.
Curtis stayed in his home state of Texas to begin his college career, going from Port Neches down to Texas A&M. He didn't pitch in 2021 because of ulnar nerve transposition surgery, and while he returned to the mound in 2022, the right-hander made just five starts before being shut down and needing to have a procedure to remove stitches from his elbow that caused pain. He transferred to Arizona State for the 2023 season, and while his results have been mixed (struggling especially in Pac-12 play), the stuff has largely been good and he's been throwing pain-free.
Curtis wasn't fully healthy in the fall, so scouts in Arizona seeing him for the first time this spring have been impressed with the overall quality of the stuff. His fastball sits 92-93 mph but is consistently up to 96. The 6-foot-5 right-hander will throw both a two-seamer with sink that can get ground balls and a four-seamer with life up, depending on the hitter and situation. His slider has improved by using a cutter grip and the upper-80s pitch misses a ton of bats. He'll fold in an occasional slower curve and his low-80s changeup features decent fade.
When Curtis is doing a good job tunneling his repertoire, he can be downright nasty and effective, but his command in and out of the zone has been inconsistent this spring. That's something teams could see improving the further removed he gets from his elbow woes. If they're confident he's healthy, his size and stuff could get him off the board early on Day 2 of the Draft.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here