Justin Lawrence
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 213LBS | Age: 28
Draft: 2015 | Rd: 12, #347, Colorado Rockies | Daytona State
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 1 0 8.64 19 0 0 16.2 17 2.40
2022 3 1 5.70 38 0 1 42.2 48 1.55
2023 4 7 3.86 67 0 11 72.1 73 1.33
3 Seasons 8 8 5.06 124 0 12 131.2 138 1.53
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 19 1-0 8.64 16.2 17 2.40
2022 38 3-1 5.70 42.2 48 1.55
2023 67 4-7 3.86 72.1 73 1.33
3 Seasons 124 8-8 5.06 131.2 138 1.53
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 26 326 50 2 4.0 2.3 91.2 112.6 6.9 36.0 .247 .339 .390 .353 .352 42.0 19.8 22.1 8.64 5.44
2022 27 763 120 5 4.2 2.6 87.8 109.2 5.9 30.0 .223 .325 .327 .293 .335 39.2 25.1 11.5 5.70 3.54
2023 28 1132 201 11 5.5 3.5 89.3 109.4 8.0 31.8 .219 .333 .301 .298 .333 38.3 23.2 10.8 3.86 3.69
Player 2221 371 18 4.9 3.0 89.0 112.6 7.1 31.8 .224 .331 .322 .305 .336 39.1 23.3 12.7
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .405 .316 .315 .369 36.3 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Lawrence relies on 2 pitches.
Sinker
(51.3%) ,
Sweeper
(48.7%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 52.0 16.0 30.0 2.0 34.0 44.0 22.0 6.0 40.0 16.0 26.0 8.0 4.0 2.3
2022 51.7 20.8 23.3 4.2 40.0 38.3 21.7 6.7 39.2 18.3 22.5 9.2 4.2 2.6
2023 48.8 18.9 25.9 6.5 34.8 32.3 32.8 5.0 36.8 20.9 22.4 8.5 5.5 3.5
Player 50.1 19.1 25.6 5.1 36.4 35.8 27.8 5.7 38.0 19.4 22.9 8.6 4.9 3.0
MLB 44.7 23.4 24.9 7.0 37.0 37.6 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 Sweeper COL R 551 83.8 34.2 -0.2 -1 14.4 1.3 10
2023 Sinker COL R 581 95.3 31.0 0.9 3 15.4 -0.9 -5
2022 Sweeper COL R 341 82.3 36.1 -0.3 -1 14.5 -0.1 -1
2022 Sinker COL R 421 95.1 29.3 1.7 6 16.5 0.3 2
2021 Sweeper COL R 113 81.8 42.4 2.8 7 14.2 -0.9 -6
2021 Sinker COL R 212 97.4 26.1 3.6 16 16.6 0.0 0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 Sinker -1.1 -7 581 51.3 153 .323 .484 .416 11.3 9.2 18.9 .282 .412 .375 48.2
2023 Sweeper 2.4 13 551 48.7 158 .153 .243 .217 36.3 37.3 30.7 .164 .264 .224 25.3
2022 Sinker 0.1 1 421 55.2 99 .337 .410 .384 13.1 8.1 11.1 .306 .426 .371 49.4
2022 Sweeper -1.5 -5 341 44.7 92 .193 .361 .280 37.2 43.5 24.5 .139 .224 .212 20.9
2021 Sinker -3.4 -7 212 65.0 54 .412 .500 .469 11.8 5.6 13.6 .318 .447 .448 45.7
2021 Sweeper -0.5 -1 114 35.0 31 .241 .310 .271 46.7 45.2 35.0 .164 .211 .197 33.3
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2023 Sinker 556 95.3 83 16.4 2:30 3:15 -45
2023 Sweeper 529 83.8 51 15.6 8:45 9:30 -45
2022 Sinker 409 95.1 88 17.3 2:15 3:00 -45
2022 Sweeper 334 82.3 51 15.8 8:45 9:30 -45
2021 Sinker 209 97.4 85 17.5 2:00 2:45 -45
2021 Sweeper 110 81.9 65 15.2 8:15 8:30 -15
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 85 326 -2 -2 -2 -2 -8
2022 191 762 1 2 -3 -3 -5
2023 311 1,132 10 9 -7 -6 6
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 326 42.3 55.8 87.0 19.1 44.4 40.8 56.5 34.7 25.7 7.1 73.9
2022 763 50.5 62.1 84.1 24.6 49.5 42.3 61.3 43.5 24.4 8.4 68.8
2023 1,132 51.3 57.8 84.2 24.5 54.8 42.4 60.9 41.6 24.0 7.8 79.5
Player 2,221 49.7 59.1 84.5 23.6 51.5 42.1 60.4 41.2 24.3 7.9 74.9
MLB 48.6 67.0 82.0 28.5 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2021 96 78 46
2022 71 65 29
2023 69 78 88 86 39 72 84 40 55 47 18 35 8 73 69 21
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 26.2 3 3.1 0 3 3 1 33.3
2023 22.7 5 4.9 0 2 5 1 20.0
Player 24.0 8 8.0 0 5 8 2 25.0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2022 3 1 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 7 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 5 4 2 1 5 4 3 2 2
2023 5 3 4 6 6 5 5 4 7 4 5 8 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 7 4 5 7 4 4 4 7 5 4 5 4
Player 8 4 7 9 9 8 9 7 9 6 7 15 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 10 7 7 12 8 6 5 12 9 7 7 6
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2021 2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 97.4 95.1 -2.3 95.3 0.2
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Breaking Velocity 81.8 82.3 0.5 83.8 1.5
Exit Velocity 91.2 87.8 -3.4 89.3 1.5
Launch Angle 6.9 5.9 -1.0 8.0 2.1
Barrel % 4.0 4.2 0.2 5.5 1.3
Hard Hit % 42.0 39.2 -2.8 38.3 -0.9
Sweet Spot % 36.0 30.0 -6.0 31.8 1.8
xBA .247 .223 -0.024 .219 -0.004
BA .333 .265 -0.068 .231 -0.034
xwOBA .353 .293 -0.060 .298 0.005
wOBA .390 .327 -0.063 .301 -0.026
xSLG .339 .325 -0.014 .333 0.008
SLG .413 .386 -0.027 .354 -0.032
K% 19.8 25.1 5.3 23.2 -1.9
BB% 22.1 11.5 -10.6 10.8 -0.7
Swing % 34.7 43.5 8.8 41.6 -1.9
Whiff% 25.7 24.4 -1.3 24.0 -0.4
In Zone % 42.3 50.5 8.2 51.3 0.8
Out of Zone % 57.7 49.5 -8.2 48.7 -0.8
Out of Zone Swing % 19.1 24.6 5.5 24.5 -0.1
First Pitch Swing % 23.5 28.8 5.3 29.2 0.4
First Pitch Strike % 56.5 61.3 4.8 60.9 -0.4
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 85 .390 53 0 0.0 32 12 37.5
2022 Shifts 185 .338 97 11 11.3 88 25 28.4
2023 Shades 310 .299 171 2 1.2 139 47 33.8
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 76 21.8 0.0% 2.6% 105 26.1 0.0% 20.0%
2022 186 18.7 7.0% 1.1% 193 22.8 0.0% 6.2%
2023 285 16.0 33.7% 0.4% 256 19.6 5.1% 0.4%
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Pitch Distribution