Justin Lawrence
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 213LBS | Age: 30
Draft: 2015 | Rd: 12, #347, Colorado Rockies | Daytona State
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 4 7 3.72 69 0 11 75 78 1.35
2024 4 4 6.49 56 0 2 59.2 45 1.78
2025 1 0 0.79 11 0 0 11.1 15 0.97
5 Seasons 13 12 5.17 193 0 14 205.1 203 1.58
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 69 4-7 3.72 75 78 1.35
2024 56 4-4 6.49 59.2 45 1.78
2025 11 1-0 0.79 11.1 15 0.97
5 Seasons 193 13-12 5.17 205.1 203 1.58
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 26 326 50 2 4.0 2.3 91.2 112.6 6.9 36.0 .247 .339 .390 .354 .352 42.0 19.8 22.1 8.64 5.47
2022 27 763 120 5 4.2 2.6 87.8 109.2 5.9 30.0 .222 .325 .327 .293 .334 39.2 25.1 11.5 5.70 3.54
2023 28 1183 205 11 5.4 3.4 89.5 109.4 7.8 32.2 .222 .334 .303 .299 .337 39.0 23.9 11.0 3.72 3.74
2024 29 1081 194 15 7.7 5.4 90.0 115.3 5.7 32.5 .299 .453 .387 .375 .399 42.3 16.1 11.8 6.49 6.21
2025 30 172 21 4 19.0 9.1 86.0 106.5 9.6 33.3 .171 .331 .245 .292 .363 23.8 34.1 13.6 0.79 3.17
Player 3525 590 37 6.3 4.0 89.3 115.3 6.7 32.2 .245 .368 .339 .326 .359 39.8 21.9 12.5
MLB 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 36.6 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Lawrence relies on 3 pitches.
Sweeper
(52.9%) ,
Sinker
(40.7%) ,
Four Seamer
(6.4%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2021 52.0 48.0 16.0 30.0 2.0 34.0 44.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 8.0 12.0 22.0 14.0
2022 51.7 48.3 20.8 23.3 4.2 40.0 38.3 21.7 20.8 22.5 8.3 19.2 15.8 13.3
2023 48.8 51.2 18.5 26.3 6.3 35.1 32.2 32.7 19.5 17.1 12.2 15.6 15.1 20.5
2024 52.6 47.4 18.6 27.3 1.5 41.2 33.5 25.3 24.2 19.6 8.8 17.0 13.9 16.5
2025 52.4 47.6 19.0 19.0 9.5 38.1 47.6 14.3 28.6 19.0 4.8 9.5 28.6 9.5
Player 51.0 49.0 18.8 26.1 4.1 38.1 35.4 26.4 21.9 19.5 9.7 16.3 15.9 16.8
MLB 44.4 55.6 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.4 25.2 20.6 17.8 5.9 16.6 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 6.0 40.0 16.0 26.0 8.0 4.0 2.3
2022 6.7 39.2 18.3 22.5 9.2 4.2 2.6
2023 4.9 36.6 20.5 23.4 8.3 5.4 3.4
2024 4.6 36.1 16.0 29.9 5.2 7.7 5.4
2025 0.0 52.4 19.0 9.5 0.0 19.0 9.1
Player 5.1 37.8 18.1 25.1 7.1 6.3 4.0
MLB 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 Sinker PIT R 70 95.0 31.1 1.5 16.7ARM -0.6 -0.6 8.1 16.7ARM 1.3
2025 Sweeper PIT R 91 83.2 35.3 -0.9 16.0GLV 1.4 4.4 -2.9 16.0GLV 1.8
2025 4-Seam Fastball PIT R 11 95.0 22.0 -1.8 14.4ARM 0.8 8.5 -7.6 14.4ARM 6.8
2024 Sinker COL R 629 94.6 30.9 1.4 14.5ARM -1.1 -0.4 7.6 14.5ARM -0.4
2024 Sweeper COL R 444 83.0 36.0 -0.9 14.2GLV 0.3 3.6 -2.0 14.2GLV 0.0
2024 4-Seam Fastball COL R 8 95.1 25.0 -6.7 12.7ARM 0.3 5.0 -10.7 12.7ARM 5.1
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 Sweeper 3.1 3 91 52.9 25 .087 .130 .142 47.2 48.0 31.6 .127 .144 .164 0.0
2025 Sinker -1.1 -1 70 40.7 15 .273 .455 .413 24.0 20.0 37.5 .180 .415 .369 37.5
2025 4-Seam Fastball 5.3 1 11 6.4 3 .000 .000 .233 33.3 0.0 0.0 .616 2.021 .956 100.0
2024 Sinker -2.8 -18 629 58.2 178 .392 .629 .493 16.5 6.2 11.0 .354 .541 .439 50.0
2024 Sweeper 0.1 0 444 41.1 98 .182 .250 .235 30.8 33.7 17.4 .215 .318 .268 22.8
2024 4-Seam Fastball -6.9 -1 8 0.7 2 .500 .500 .450 50.0 50.0 20.0 .165 .184 .153 100.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 4-Seam Fastball 11 95.0 81 16.9 2:15 2:00 15
2025 Sinker 67 95.0 78 18.1 2:15 3:15 -60
2025 Sweeper 91 83.2 52 17.3 8:30 9:15 -45
2024 Sinker 605 94.6 79 15.4 2:15 3:15 -60
2024 Sweeper 429 82.9 51 15.3 8:45 9:15 -30
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 85 326 2 -2 -2 -2 -4
2022 191 762 0 4 -4 -3 -2
2023 322 1,183 10 7 -7 -6 4
2024 278 1,081 -10 8 -8 -8 -18
2025 43 172 2 2 0 -2 3
Player 919 3,524 3 19 -22 3 -19
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 326 42.3 55.8 87.0 19.1 44.4 40.8 56.5 34.7 25.7 7.1 73.9
2022 763 50.5 62.1 84.1 24.6 49.5 42.3 61.3 43.5 24.7 8.4 68.8
2023 1,183 51.6 57.5 84.3 24.8 54.2 42.3 61.3 41.7 24.1 7.8 79.3
2024 1,081 48.1 64.4 85.1 23.9 58.2 39.8 53.8 43.4 22.6 7.6 76.8
2025 172 41.9 54.2 82.1 28.0 35.7 34.9 51.2 39.0 37.3 5.8 50.0
Player 3,525 48.9 60.3 84.6 24.1 52.4 41.0 58.1 41.8 24.5 7.7 74.5
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.0 28.5 57.7 42.6 61.1 47.2 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2021 96 78 46
2022 71 65 29
2023 68 76 87 87 36 74 85 37 51 53 17 36 10 75 70 20
2024 1 1 9 44 1 54 49 19 18 5 8 26 6 59 76 33
2025 70 95 75 51 53 32 3 87 96 93 16 96 52 66 77 39
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 26.2 3 3.1 0 3 3 1 33.3
2023 22.7 5 4.7 0 3 4 1 20.0
2024 23.1 9 7.0 2 2 5 3 33.3
2025 -- 0 0.3 0 0 1 0 --
Player 23.5 17 15.1 2 8 13 5 29.4
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2022 3 1 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 7 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 5 4 2 1 5 4 3 2 2
2023 5 2 4 6 5 4 5 4 7 4 5 8 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 4 5 7 4 4 4 6 5 4 5 3
2024 9 7 4 7 8 9 9 7 6 6 7 8 8 6 8 6 7 7 6 9 7 6 8 8 5 7 6 9 7 7 6
2025 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Player 17 11 11 16 16 16 18 15 15 12 14 23 17 13 17 14 14 16 14 18 15 13 21 17 11 12 17 18 15 14 11
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-   2024 +/-   2025
Fastball Velocity 97.4 -2.3 95.1 0.3 95.4 -0.8 94.6 0.4 95.0
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Breaking Velocity 81.8 0.5 82.3 1.5 83.8 -0.8 83.0 0.2 83.2
Exit Velocity 91.2 -3.4 87.8 1.7 89.5 0.5 90.0 -4.0 86.0
Launch Angle 6.9 -1.0 5.9 1.9 7.8 -2.1 5.7 3.9 9.6
Barrel % 4.0 0.2 4.2 1.2 5.4 2.3 7.7 11.3 19.0
Hard Hit % 42.0 -2.8 39.2 -0.2 39.0 3.3 42.3 -18.5 23.8
LA Sweet-Spot % 36.0 -6.0 30.0 2.2 32.2 0.3 32.5 0.8 33.3
xBA .247 -0.025 .222 0.000 .222 0.077 .299 -0.128 .171
BA .333 -0.068 .265 -0.030 .235 0.078 .313 -0.174 .139
xwOBA .354 -0.061 .293 0.006 .299 0.076 .375 -0.083 .292
wOBA .390 -0.063 .327 -0.024 .303 0.084 .387 -0.142 .245
xSLG .339 -0.014 .325 0.009 .334 0.119 .453 -0.122 .331
SLG .413 -0.027 .386 -0.032 .354 0.131 .485 -0.263 .222
K% 19.8 5.3 25.1 -1.2 23.9 -7.8 16.1 18.0 34.1
BB% 22.1 -10.6 11.5 -0.5 11.0 0.8 11.8 1.8 13.6
Swing % 34.7 8.8 43.5 -1.8 41.7 1.7 43.4 -4.4 39.0
Whiff% 25.7 -1.0 24.7 -0.6 24.1 -1.5 22.6 14.7 37.3
In Zone % 42.3 8.2 50.5 1.1 51.6 -3.5 48.1 -6.2 41.9
Out of Zone % 57.7 -8.2 49.5 -1.1 48.4 3.5 51.9 6.2 58.1
Out of Zone Swing % 19.1 5.5 24.6 0.2 24.8 -0.9 23.9 4.1 28.0
First Pitch Swing % 23.5 5.3 28.8 -0.3 28.5 -0.5 28.0 -7.1 20.9
First Pitch Strike % 56.5 4.8 61.3 0.0 61.3 -7.5 53.8 -2.6 51.2
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 85 .390 53 0 0.0 32 11 34.4
2022 Shifts 185 .338 97 11 11.3 88 23 26.1
2023 Shades 321 .301 176 2 1.1 145 51 35.2
2024 Shades 278 .387 164 0 0.0 114 43 37.7
2025 Shades 43 .245 26 0 0.0 17 1 5.9
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 76 21.8 0.0% 2.6% 105 26.1 0.0% 20.0%
2022 186 18.7 7.0% 1.1% 193 22.8 0.0% 6.2%
2023 308 16.1 32.1% 0.3% 274 19.6 4.7% 0.4%
2024 240 16.1 24.2% 2.1% 275 18.5 1.5% 0.4%
2025 48 17.0 8.3% 0.0% 25 18.3 0.0% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution