Justin Lawrence
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 3" 213LBS | Age: 29
Draft: 2015 | Rd: 12, #347, Colorado Rockies | Daytona State
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2022 3 1 5.70 38 0 1 42.2 48 1.55
2023 4 7 3.72 69 0 11 75 78 1.35
2024 4 4 6.49 56 0 2 59.2 45 1.78
4 Seasons 12 12 5.43 182 0 14 194 188 1.61
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2022 38 3-1 5.70 42.2 48 1.55
2023 69 4-7 3.72 75 78 1.35
2024 56 4-4 6.49 59.2 45 1.78
4 Seasons 182 12-12 5.43 194 188 1.61
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 26 326 50 2 4.0 2.3 91.2 112.6 6.9 36.0 .247 .339 .390 .354 .352 42.0 19.8 22.1 8.64 5.47
2022 27 763 120 5 4.2 2.6 87.8 109.2 5.9 30.0 .222 .325 .327 .293 .334 39.2 25.1 11.5 5.70 3.54
2023 28 1183 205 11 5.4 3.4 89.5 109.4 7.8 32.2 .222 .334 .303 .299 .337 39.0 23.9 11.0 3.72 3.74
2024 29 1081 194 15 7.7 5.4 90.0 115.3 5.7 32.5 .303 .460 .387 .377 .401 42.3 16.1 11.8 6.49 6.16
Player 3353 569 33 5.8 3.7 89.5 115.3 6.6 32.2 .250 .372 .343 .328 .360 40.4 21.3 12.5
MLB 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.5 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Lawrence relies on 2 pitches.
Sinker
(58.9%) ,
Sweeper
(41.1%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 52.0 16.0 30.0 2.0 34.0 44.0 22.0 6.0 40.0 16.0 26.0 8.0 4.0 2.3
2022 51.7 20.8 23.3 4.2 40.0 38.3 21.7 6.7 39.2 18.3 22.5 9.2 4.2 2.6
2023 48.8 18.5 26.3 6.3 35.1 32.2 32.7 4.9 36.6 20.5 23.4 8.3 5.4 3.4
2024 52.6 18.6 27.3 1.5 41.2 33.5 25.3 4.6 36.1 16.0 29.9 5.2 7.7 5.4
Player 51.0 18.8 26.4 3.9 38.1 35.0 26.9 5.3 37.3 18.1 25.7 7.4 5.8 3.7
MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2024 Sinker COL R 637 94.6 30.8 3.1 14.5ARM -0.8 -0.4 7.7 14.5ARM -0.3
2024 Sweeper COL R 444 83.0 36.0 -0.9 14.2GLV 0.2 3.6 -2.0 14.2GLV -0.1
2023 Sweeper COL R 576 83.8 34.3 -0.5 14.4GLV 1.2 4.6 -3.1 14.4GLV 0.3
2023 Sinker COL R 607 95.4 30.9 0.9 15.3ARM -0.9 -0.9 8.5 15.3ARM 0.3
2022 Sinker COL R 421 95.1 29.3 1.7 16.5ARM 0.3 0.9 7.4 16.5ARM 1.7
2022 Sweeper COL R 341 82.3 36.1 -1.0 14.5GLV 0.5 4.2 -2.6 14.5GLV 0.6
2021 Sinker COL R 212 97.4 26.1 3.6 16.6ARM 0.0 2.8 6.0 16.6ARM 1.9
2021 Sweeper COL R 113 81.8 42.4 2.0 14.2GLV -0.1 -1.6 1.8 14.2GLV -0.5
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2024 Sinker -3.5 -22 637 58.9 180 .393 .628 .492 16.8 6.7 11.4 .356 .545 .439 50.4
2024 Sweeper 0.3 1 444 41.1 98 .182 .250 .235 30.8 33.7 17.4 .216 .321 .268 22.8
2023 Sinker -1.1 -7 607 51.3 159 .333 .488 .422 11.5 9.4 18.8 .293 .420 .380 49.2
2023 Sweeper 2.4 14 576 48.7 163 .149 .236 .214 36.4 38.7 30.4 .159 .258 .221 25.3
2022 Sinker 0.1 1 421 55.2 99 .337 .410 .384 13.1 8.1 11.1 .305 .425 .371 49.4
2022 Sweeper -1.5 -5 341 44.7 92 .193 .361 .280 37.2 43.5 24.5 .139 .224 .212 20.9
2021 Sinker -3.4 -7 212 65.0 54 .412 .500 .469 11.8 5.6 13.6 .318 .448 .448 45.7
2021 Sweeper -0.5 -1 114 35.0 31 .241 .310 .271 46.7 45.2 35.0 .164 .211 .197 33.3
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2024 Sinker 612 94.6 79 15.3 2:15 3:15 -60
2024 Sweeper 429 82.9 51 15.3 8:45 9:15 -30
2023 Sinker 581 95.4 83 16.3 2:30 3:15 -45
2023 Sweeper 554 83.8 51 15.7 8:45 9:30 -45
2022 Sinker 409 95.1 88 17.3 2:15 3:00 -45
2022 Sweeper 334 82.3 51 15.8 8:45 9:30 -45
2021 Sinker 209 97.4 85 17.5 2:00 2:45 -45
2021 Sweeper 110 81.9 65 15.2 8:15 8:30 -15
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 85 326 -1 -2 -2 -2 -8
2022 191 762 1 2 -3 -3 -5
2023 322 1,183 11 8 -6 -6 7
2024 278 1,081 -13 9 -8 -9 -21
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 326 42.3 55.8 87.0 19.1 44.4 40.8 56.5 34.7 25.7 7.1 73.9
2022 763 50.5 62.1 84.1 24.6 49.5 42.3 61.3 43.5 24.4 8.4 68.8
2023 1,183 51.6 57.5 84.3 24.8 54.2 42.3 61.3 41.7 24.1 7.8 79.3
2024 1,081 48.1 64.4 85.1 23.9 58.2 39.8 53.8 43.4 22.6 7.6 76.8
Player 3,353 49.3 60.6 84.7 23.8 53.6 41.4 58.4 42.0 23.8 7.8 75.5
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.0 28.5 57.8 42.6 61.0 47.2 24.9 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2021 96 78 46
2022 71 65 29
2023 68 76 87 87 37 74 85 37 51 53 17 36 10 75 70 20
2024 1 1 10 46 1 54 49 19 18 5 8 27 6 59 76 33
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2022 26.2 3 3.1 0 3 3 1 33.3
2023 22.7 5 4.7 0 3 4 1 20.0
2024 23.1 9 7.1 2 2 5 3 33.3
Player 23.5 17 14.9 2 8 12 5 29.4
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2022 3 1 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 2 7 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 5 4 2 1 5 4 3 2 2
2023 5 2 4 6 5 4 5 4 7 4 5 8 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 4 5 7 4 4 4 6 5 4 5 3
2024 9 7 4 7 8 9 9 7 6 7 7 8 8 6 8 6 7 7 6 9 7 6 9 8 5 7 6 9 7 7 6
Player 17 10 11 16 16 16 18 14 15 13 14 23 16 13 16 14 14 15 14 18 14 13 21 16 11 12 17 18 14 14 11
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2021 2022 +/-   2023 +/-   2024 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 97.4 95.1 -2.3 95.4 0.3 94.6 -0.8
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Breaking Velocity 81.8 82.3 0.5 83.8 1.5 83.0 -0.8
Exit Velocity 91.2 87.8 -3.4 89.5 1.7 90.0 0.5
Launch Angle 6.9 5.9 -1.0 7.8 1.9 5.7 -2.1
Barrel % 4.0 4.2 0.2 5.4 1.2 7.7 2.3
Hard Hit % 42.0 39.2 -2.8 39.0 -0.2 42.3 3.3
LA Sweet-Spot % 36.0 30.0 -6.0 32.2 2.2 32.5 0.3
xBA .247 .222 -0.025 .222 0.000 .303 0.081
BA .333 .265 -0.068 .235 -0.030 .313 0.078
xwOBA .354 .293 -0.061 .299 0.006 .377 0.078
wOBA .390 .327 -0.063 .303 -0.024 .387 0.084
xSLG .339 .325 -0.014 .334 0.009 .460 0.126
SLG .413 .386 -0.027 .354 -0.032 .485 0.131
K% 19.8 25.1 5.3 23.9 -1.2 16.1 -7.8
BB% 22.1 11.5 -10.6 11.0 -0.5 11.8 0.8
Swing % 34.7 43.5 8.8 41.7 -1.8 43.4 1.7
Whiff% 25.7 24.4 -1.3 24.1 -0.3 22.6 -1.5
In Zone % 42.3 50.5 8.2 51.6 1.1 48.1 -3.5
Out of Zone % 57.7 49.5 -8.2 48.4 -1.1 51.9 3.5
Out of Zone Swing % 19.1 24.6 5.5 24.8 0.2 23.9 -0.9
First Pitch Swing % 23.5 28.8 5.3 28.5 -0.3 28.0 -0.5
First Pitch Strike % 56.5 61.3 4.8 61.3 0.0 53.8 -7.5
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 85 .390 53 0 0.0 32 11 34.4
2022 Shifts 185 .338 97 11 11.3 88 23 26.1
2023 Shades 321 .301 176 2 1.1 145 51 35.2
2024 Shades 276 .385 162 0 0.0 114 45 39.5
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 76 21.8 0.0% 2.6% 105 26.1 0.0% 20.0%
2022 186 18.7 7.0% 1.1% 193 22.8 0.0% 6.2%
2023 308 16.1 32.1% 0.3% 274 19.6 4.7% 0.4%
2024 240 16.1 24.2% 2.1% 275 18.5 1.5% 0.4%

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Pitch Distribution