Scouting Report

Video scouting report »

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

Russell had a spectacular freshman season as a reliever at Tennessee in 2023, posting an 0.89 ERA, .095 average-against and a 47/7 K/BB ratio in 30 1/3 innings. Expected to join the Volunteers' weekend rotation as a sophomore, he left his second start with shoulder soreness, felt pain in his forearm when he returned a month later and had internal brace surgery to repair his elbow last June. If completely healthy, he'd go in the top half of the first round, but Tennessee has brought him back slowly this spring.

Russell has a unicorn fastball that could grade as a true 80 offering if he adds more velocity. It sits at 92-94 mph and tops out at 98 with the best heater metrics in the Draft thanks to an exceptionally low release point, wide angle, significant armside run and carry up in the zone. He can get swings-and-misses inside and outside of the strike zone with his fastball, and on the rare occasions when hitters make contact, they almost never drive it in the air.

A low-80s slider with plenty of horizontal action gives Russell a plus second pitch, though he has yet to show much feel for his mid-80s changeup with sink. He has pounded the zone and dominated when healthy but his durability is a huge question mark, as he also dealt with soreness as a freshman. He has the upside of frontline starter and the stuff to close games if he can't handle a rotation workload.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

After logging an 0.89 ERA, .095 opponent average and 47/7 K/BB ratio as a Tennessee freshman reliever in 2023, Russell came down with shoulder soreness and forearm pain when he tried to start as a sophomore. He had internal brace surgery in June 2024 and was inconsistent in just 25 1/3 innings of work after returning last spring, but his unicorn fastball still intrigued scouts. The Rangers drafted him in the second round and signed him for an over-slot $2.6 million.

Russell's heater parks at 93-96 mph and tops out at 98 with an unhittable combination of an exceptionally low release point, wide angle, significant armside run and carry. Hitters repeatedly chase his fastball out of the zone, miss it in the zone and rarely do damage when they do make contact. His low-80s slider features plenty of sweep and grades as a plus pitch when it's on, though it wasn't as reliable in 2025 as it had been previously.

Despite using it only sparingly last spring, Russell made some progress with a mid-80s changeup with fade and sink, giving him a viable third pitch. His control hasn't been as sharp since his spectacular freshman year, but he throws enough strikes to succeed in the rotation. He has a ceiling of frontline starter but will have to prove he can hold up and maintain his stuff in that role.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

After a spectacular freshman season as a reliever at Tennessee in 2023, Russell left his second start as a sophomore with shoulder soreness, felt pain in his forearm when he returned a month later and had internal brace surgery to repair his elbow in June 2024. He wasn't at his best this spring and worked just 25 1/3 innings, yet he still struck out 32.4 percent of the batters he faced and continued to intrigue scouts. The Rangers grabbed him in the second round and paid him an over-slot $2.6 million bonus.

Russell has a unicorn fastball that could grade as a true 80 offering if he adds more velocity. It sits at 92-94 mph and tops out at 98 with outstanding metrics thanks to an exceptionally low release point, wide angle, significant armside run and carry up in the zone. He can get swings and misses inside and outside of the strike zone with his fastball, and on the rare occasions when hitters make contact, they almost never drive it in the air.

A low-80s slider with plenty of horizontal action gives Russell a potential plus second pitch, though he has yet to show much feel for his mid-80s changeup with sink. He demonstrated solid control in his first college season but hasn't been as sharp with his strike-throwing the last two years. His durability is a huge question mark, as he also dealt with soreness as a freshman, but he has the upside of frontline starter and the stuff to close games if he can't handle a rotation workload.

Transactions

Team	Date	Transaction
	03/05/2026	RHP AJ Russell assigned to Texas Rangers Prospects.
	08/04/2025	ACL Rangers activated RHP AJ Russell.
	07/23/2025	RHP AJ Russell assigned to ACL Rangers.
	07/22/2025	Texas Rangers signed RHP AJ Russell.
	06/03/2025	RHP AJ Russell assigned to College Workout.
	02/21/2025	RHP A.J. Russell assigned to Tennessee Volunteers.
	04/03/2024	RHP A.J. Russell assigned to Cotuit Kettleers.
	02/06/2024	RHP A.J. Russell assigned to Tennessee Volunteers.
	02/03/2023	RHP A.J. Russell assigned to Tennessee Volunteers.