Smith was establishing himself as one of the top prep left-handers for the 2021 Draft before he had Tommy John surgery in 2019. That sidelined him for all of last season as well as the showcase circuit, but he has reclaimed his status this spring. He threw three straight no-hitters and four in a span of five starts in March, finishing the season with a total of seven no-nos as his stuff came all the way back.
Smith has spent most of the year operating at 88-93 mph and topping out at 95 with some run and sink on his fastball. His slider has lacked consistency at times but when it's on, it's a sharp low-80s offering with depth. He'll occasionally display a changeup but hasn't had much need for it yet.
Like most high school pitchers, Smith requires some polish. The Arkansas recruit creates angle on his pitches with a lower three-quarters arm slot but throws uphill and with some effort. He comes with some reliever risk but also could develop into a mid-rotation starter.
After blowing out his elbow as a high school sophomore and having Tommy John surgery, Smith bounced back to tie a Texas prep record with seven no-hitters as a senior in 2021. He might have factored in the top three rounds that July if not for his strong commitment to Arkansas. He has better stuff than any southpaw in this Draft and could be the first pitcher selected after finding more consistency this spring. He won Southeastern Conference Pitcher of the Year honors and led NCAA Division I in average-against (.144) and strikeout rate (17.3 per nine innings), setting a record in the latter category.
Smith operates at 94-97 mph and touches 100 with his fastball, which plays up because his funky delivery creates deception and riding action. His best offering is an 83-87 mph slider, which features sweep and depth while destroying lefties and keeping righties at bay, and he also can turn it into a cutter that reaches 91 mph. He uses an upper-80s splitter as a change of pace, and while he struggles to locate it well, it has intriguing tumble when it's on.
Smith employs far from a textbook delivery, working from a low-three-quarters slot with some crossfire that makes it tough to pick up his pitches and also to throw strikes at times. He has improved his control and performance in 2024, highlighted by striking out 17 over six innings on just 78 pitches against Oregon State, with some evaluators calling it the most dominant game they ever had seen. He has a strong 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame built for durability and could become a frontline starter if he continues to harness his stuff.
The best lefty pitching prospect in the 2024 Draft, Smith won Southeastern Conference Pitcher of the Year accolades and set a NCAA Division I record with 17.3 strikeouts per nine innings that spring. Signed for $8 million as the fifth overall pick, his stuff and control regressed for much of his first full pro season, and he missed seven weeks in May and June while dealing with elbow soreness and reworking his mechanics at the White Sox' training complex. He finished strong, helping Double-A Birmingham capture its second straight Southern League title and then starring in the Arizona Fall League.
When Smith is at his best, he has a pair of well-above-average pitches in his fastball and slider. His four-seamer dropped to the low 90s with diminished command for a while last year before returning to the mid 90s with a peak of 99 and bat-missing carry and deception toward the end of the season. Similarly, his 82-85 slider lost some power and life and didn’t regain its wipeout sweep and depth until late in the year.
Smith has had difficulty developing an effective third offering, with his upper-80s splitter flashing intriguing tumble but often missing the plate by a wide margin. His quick arm, low slot and crossfire delivery create a flat approach angle and plenty of subterfuge but also make it difficult for him to keep his mechanics in sync and provide strikes. Chicago is trying to help him slow his delivery down and stay more balanced over the rubber. If he can find even fringy control, that may be enough to make him a frontline starter.
Smith missed his entire high school junior season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, then returned to tie a Texas prep record with seven no-hitters in 2021. He emerged as the best lefty pitching prospect in the 2024 Draft, winning Southeastern Conference Pitcher of the Year honors, setting a NCAA Division I record for strikeout rate (17.3 per nine innings) and leading the nation in opponent average (.144) as a junior. Signed for $8 million as the fifth overall pick, his stuff and control have regressed in his first full pro season but he still has missed plenty of bats in Double-A.
Both Smith's fastball and slider played as well-above-average pitches in college but haven't been the same in 2025. His four-seamer has dropped 2 mph, sitting at 92-95 mph and topping out at 97, and while his funky crossfire delivery and low release height create plenty of deception and carry, his heater often misses the plate by a wide margin. His slider has lost some power as well, parking at 81-84 mph with horizontal and vertical action, and it has caught too much of the plate and produced few chases this year.
Smith can flash an upper-80s changeup with intriguing tumble, but he has lost faith in it because he has been unable to land it for strikes in pro ball. After he battled the strike zone more than ever and experienced elbow soreness this spring, the White Sox worked with him to slow his delivery down and keep him more balanced over the rubber. They still envision him and fellow southpaw Noah Schultz becoming their frontline starters of the future even though they have had more growing pains than anticipated in 2025.
After blowing out his elbow as a high school sophomore and having Tommy John surgery, Smith bounced back to tie a Texas prep record with seven no-hitters as a senior in 2021. He might have factored in the top three rounds that July if not for his strong commitment to Arkansas, where he blossomed into the best southpaw in the 2024 Draft. He won Southeastern Conference pitcher of the year honors this spring, setting an NCAA Division I record for strikeout rate (17.3 per nine innings) and leading D-I in opponent average (.144) before signing for $8 million as the No. 5 overall pick.
Smith operates at 94-97 mph and touches 100 with his fastball, which plays up because his funky delivery with a low release height creates deception and riding action. His best offering is an 83-87 mph slider, which features sweep and depth while destroying lefties and keeping righties at bay, and he also can turn it into a cutter that reaches 91 mph. He uses an upper-80s splitter as a change of pace, and while he struggles to locate it well, it has intriguing tumble when it's on.
Smith employs far from textbook mechanics, working from a low-three-quarters slot with some crossfire that makes it tough to pick up his pitches and also to throw strikes at times. He has improved his control and performance in 2024, highlighted by striking out 17 over six innings on just 78 pitches against Oregon State, with some evaluators calling it the most dominant game they had ever seen. He has a strong 6-foot-3, 225-pound frame built for durability and has the stuff to become a frontline starter.
How this works:
This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement.
On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown.
Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release.
On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift:
three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of
their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about
how positioning is defined here
