Joe Kelly
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 1" 174LBS | Age: 36
Draft: 2009 | Rd: 3, #98, St. Louis Cardinals | UC Riverside
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2022 1 3 6.08 43 1 1 37 53 1.59
2023 2 5 4.12 42 0 1 39.1 60 1.19
2024 1 1 4.78 35 0 0 32 35 1.47
13 Seasons 54 38 3.98 485 81 7 839 767 1.37
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2022 43 1-3 6.08 37 53 1.59
2023 42 2-5 4.12 39.1 60 1.19
2024 35 1-1 4.78 32 35 1.47
13 Seasons 485 54-38 3.98 839 767 1.37
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 27 2378 422 18 4.3 3.1 89.3 113.4 9.0 31.3 .271 .416 .335 .333 .373 39.8 18.7 8.3 4.82 4.67
2016 28 739 114 10 8.8 5.3 91.2 111.8 9.9 34.2 .274 .461 .356 .365 .449 41.2 25.5 12.8 5.17 5.86
2017 29 1025 158 7 4.4 2.9 89.1 113.0 6.5 32.3 .242 .356 .259 .305 .338 36.7 21.8 11.3 2.79 3.98
2018 30 1176 180 7 3.9 2.5 89.7 113.6 8.5 29.4 .236 .348 .297 .310 .348 37.8 23.9 11.2 4.39 4.07
2019 31 894 139 7 5.0 3.1 88.9 113.5 0.7 25.9 .211 .335 .306 .280 .338 40.4 27.4 9.7 4.56 3.41
2020 32 171 26 0 0.0 0.0 88.2 101.7 -3.6 30.8 .240 .302 .310 .320 .329 34.6 21.4 16.7 1.80 4.36
2021 33 712 113 6 5.3 3.3 85.5 110.1 -0.1 27.4 .207 .313 .242 .278 .334 34.5 27.5 8.2 2.86 3.22
2022 34 703 91 3 3.3 1.8 85.9 106.0 -0.7 20.9 .190 .271 .327 .277 .320 31.9 31.2 13.5 6.08 3.15
2023 35 712 88 6 6.8 3.6 84.9 114.3 0.7 35.2 .184 .299 .279 .264 .346 36.4 35.7 10.7 4.12 2.88
2024 36 552 86 11 12.8 7.7 88.7 110.7 8.0 33.7 .238 .410 .344 .345 .405 43.0 24.5 11.2 4.78 5.11
Player 9062 1417 75 5.3 3.4 88.6 114.3 5.8 30.3 .237 .365 .308 .311 .361 38.3 24.5 10.5
MLB 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 36.5 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
Sinker
(29.0%) ,
Four Seamer
(24.6%) ,
Slider
(21.7%) ,
Knuckle Curve
(17.8%) ,
Changeup
(6.9%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2015 46.0 20.1 27.5 6.4 32.2 38.9 28.4 0.7 36.3 22.3 29.6 5.5 4.3 3.1
2016 48.2 18.4 28.1 5.3 36.0 37.7 26.3 1.8 35.1 13.2 26.3 8.8 8.8 5.3
2017 51.3 19.6 25.9 3.2 28.5 38.6 32.9 3.2 42.4 19.0 26.6 4.4 4.4 2.9
2018 48.9 18.3 26.1 6.7 30.6 37.2 31.7 2.2 37.8 21.7 27.8 6.1 3.9 2.5
2019 62.6 11.5 22.3 3.6 32.4 43.2 24.5 1.4 54.0 9.4 21.6 6.5 5.0 3.1
2020 57.7 7.7 30.8 3.8 34.6 46.2 19.2 0.0 50.0 15.4 30.8 3.8 0.0 0.0
2021 58.4 12.4 21.2 8.0 35.4 45.1 19.5 11.5 46.0 13.3 18.6 5.3 5.3 3.3
2022 67.0 17.6 12.1 3.3 33.0 42.9 24.2 8.8 47.3 11.0 23.1 5.5 3.3 1.8
2023 58.0 18.2 23.9 0.0 34.1 43.2 22.7 10.2 40.9 12.5 21.6 6.8 6.8 3.6
2024 47.7 23.3 24.4 4.7 36.0 33.7 30.2 7.0 37.2 18.6 19.8 4.7 12.8 7.7
Player 52.2 17.9 24.8 5.1 32.6 39.8 27.4 3.7 40.9 17.4 25.6 5.8 5.3 3.4
MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2024 Changeup LAD R 38 88.4 31.0 -0.8 17.9ARM 2.7 4.1 0.8 17.9ARM 3.7
2024 Curveball LAD R 98 87.3 47.4 4.1 7.4GLV 1.4 -11.6 1.7 7.4GLV -2.0
2024 Slider LAD R 120 90.1 34.6 2.8 9.7GLV 5.9 -0.9 2.5 9.7GLV 4.6
2024 Sinker LAD R 160 98.2 21.9 -1.3 16.8ARM 0.7 6.4 0.9 16.8ARM 2.0
2024 4-Seam Fastball LAD R 136 98.1 15.3 -1.0 11.2ARM 2.3 13.2 -2.6 11.2ARM 3.7
2023 Curveball LAD R 121 89.4 42.4 1.6 5.0GLV 1.4 -8.3 -1.6 5.0GLV -3.9
2023 4-Seam Fastball LAD R 113 99.0 14.4 -0.9 12.5ARM 3.2 13.6 -2.2 12.5ARM 5.1
2023 Sinker LAD R 218 98.9 20.2 -1.5 17.3ARM 0.8 7.8 -0.2 17.3ARM 2.3
2023 Changeup LAD R 76 89.2 28.0 -2.3 18.1ARM 3.1 6.5 -1.1 18.1ARM 3.7
2023 Slider LAD R 184 91.6 33.2 2.9 6.3GLV 2.4 -0.5 2.0 6.3GLV 1.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2024 Sinker -0.2 0 160 29.0 45 .306 .333 .368 9.5 8.9 14.8 .272 .339 .354 34.4
2024 4-Seam Fastball 0.0 0 136 24.6 37 .258 .452 .357 15.9 27.0 21.7 .261 .511 .380 50.0
2024 Slider -1.4 -2 120 21.7 34 .226 .387 .300 23.7 29.4 20.4 .198 .347 .272 42.9
2024 Curveball 0.5 1 98 17.8 15 .091 .091 .200 42.4 40.0 23.1 .190 .278 .387 66.7
2024 Changeup -9.9 -4 38 6.9 11 .400 1.000 .591 55.0 45.5 26.3 .218 .690 .406 40.0
2023 Sinker 0.3 1 218 30.6 41 .258 .323 .350 21.6 17.1 17.5 .275 .343 .377 33.3
2023 Slider 1.1 2 184 25.8 46 .114 .250 .195 45.6 52.2 34.8 .151 .290 .207 25.0
2023 Curveball -1.7 -2 121 17.0 21 .111 .111 .305 40.4 42.9 24.3 .118 .135 .226 55.6
2023 4-Seam Fastball -1.2 -1 113 15.9 33 .333 .600 .423 18.0 36.4 24.5 .217 .447 .314 44.4
2023 Changeup 0.8 1 76 10.7 27 .160 .320 .239 27.0 29.6 21.1 .143 .201 .189 35.3
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2024 Changeup 38 88.4 98 19.0 2:45 2:45 0
2024 Curveball 98 87.3 61 15.8 7:30 7:00 30
2024 4-Seam Fastball 135 98.1 96 17.2 1:30 1:30 0
2024 Sinker 154 98.2 93 18.4 1:45 2:30 -45
2024 Slider 117 90.1 37 11.1 7:30 8:30 -60
2023 Changeup 76 89.2 99 19.7 2:30 2:30 0
2023 Curveball 119 89.4 53 11.6 7:30 7:00 30
2023 4-Seam Fastball 112 99.0 97 18.5 1:30 1:30 0
2023 Sinker 206 98.9 94 19.5 1:45 2:15 -30
2023 Slider 179 91.6 28 7.4 7:45 8:30 -45
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2012 486 1,809 0 12 -5 -8 -2
2013 620 2,298 20 15 -4 -12 18
2014 412 1,569 8 5 -8 -8 -4
2015 587 2,378 1 14 -15 -9 -9
2016 199 792 3 6 -4 -5 -1
2017 248 1,069 18 7 -7 -5 13
2018 329 1,345 10 13 -9 -7 7
2019 237 951 2 3 -4 -4 -3
2020 58 234 4 0 0 -1 3
2021 202 812 5 16 -5 -4 12
2022 170 703 6 -2 -3 -5 -4
2023 176 743 4 5 -2 -6 1
2024 142 552 -7 8 -1 -5 -5
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 2,378 48.9 60.1 88.8 25.1 60.7 43.6 62.2 42.2 19.3 7.9 73.9
2016 739 47.1 59.8 82.2 26.9 53.3 43.2 51.6 42.4 26.8 5.4 72.5
2017 1,025 50.8 67.8 78.7 26.2 65.9 42.8 63.9 47.3 24.7 7.3 72.0
2018 1,176 49.6 64.8 79.1 24.5 61.4 41.4 57.5 44.5 25.6 8.0 80.9
2019 894 51.5 56.6 83.3 25.8 50.9 39.3 56.4 41.9 26.4 8.3 61.6
2020 171 47.4 58.0 89.4 24.4 36.4 39.8 42.9 40.4 27.5 7.6 61.5
2021 712 51.5 57.5 80.6 25.5 50.0 43.5 58.6 42.0 28.1 7.6 61.1
2022 703 43.0 57.0 78.5 29.7 46.2 44.0 53.5 41.4 33.7 5.8 58.5
2023 712 49.8 56.1 81.4 31.6 46.0 39.1 61.9 43.8 31.4 8.1 63.8
2024 552 50.4 68.3 84.7 23.7 55.4 40.6 56.3 46.2 22.4 9.4 73.1
Player 9,062 49.2 61.0 83.0 26.2 55.5 42.2 58.6 43.3 25.1 7.6 70.2
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.0 28.5 57.8 42.6 61.0 47.2 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2015 19 15 28 45 14 38 70 17 4 37 33 20 8 90 24 93 59
2016 95 33 95 38
2017 59 54 78 85 33 85 79 9 17 52 12 52 34 100 53 96 33
2018 46 55 79 88 21 89 92 12 29 60 12 54 13 99 52 98 26
2019 83 83 91 89 67 92 86 42 18 75 25 57 14 98 24 99 43
2020 94 40 96 36
2021 96 19 92 28
2022 96 37 91 20
2023 98 54 95 35
2024 98 28 95 30
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2016 24.3 5 5.4 0 2 5 2 40.0
2017 23.0 3 5.0 -2 1 5 1 33.3
2018 24.8 4 4.6 -1 6 5 1 25.0
2019 22.9 7 4.9 2 4 6 0 0.0
2020 -- 0 0.5 -1 0 1 0 --
2021 22.7 4 3.8 0 1 2 2 50.0
2022 22.1 2 2.4 0 2 2 1 50.0
2023 23.5 3 4.1 -1 2 4 1 33.3
2024 24.8 4 3.9 0 1 4 1 25.0
Player 23.6 32 34.6 -3 19 34 9 28.1
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2016 5 6 4 6 6 5 7 4 5 4 7 6 5 4 5 6 3 4 5 6 4 4 5 7 6 5 6 9 7 7 4
2017 3 5 3 3 5 6 6 3 4 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 3 7 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4
2018 4 7 4 5 7 4 6 4 5 1 5 10 4 4 3 4 4 2 4 7 6 4 7 4 2 1 5 7 4 5 3
2019 7 6 3 5 5 4 6 5 2 3 4 6 8 6 5 5 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 4 5 4 6 7 4 3
2020 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0
2021 4 5 3 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 5 3 3
2022 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 4 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 1
2023 3 4 1 5 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 3 5 6 5 4 5 4 4 2 6 7 4 3 4 4 5 3 3
2024 4 3 3 4 4 3 5 3 2 3 5 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 5 4 5 4 4
Player 32 39 23 34 37 32 42 28 26 23 37 41 38 33 35 38 32 24 39 37 37 35 44 43 31 26 35 44 44 36 25
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-   2024 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 96.1 97.0 0.9 99.0 2.0 98.1 -0.9 97.9 -0.2 96.9 -1.0 97.6 0.7 97.9 0.3 98.9 1.0 98.1 -0.8
Offspeed Velocity 85.5 85.9 0.4 87.5 1.6 87.7 0.2 87.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 86.9 0.0 87.1 0.2 89.2 2.1 88.4 -0.8
Breaking Velocity 83.9 85.9 2.0 86.4 0.5 85.9 -0.5 87.2 1.3 87.1 -0.1 87.1 0.0 88.1 1.0 90.7 2.6 88.9 -1.8
Exit Velocity 89.3 91.2 1.9 89.1 -2.1 89.7 0.6 88.9 -0.8 88.2 -0.7 85.5 -2.7 85.9 0.4 84.9 -1.0 88.7 3.8
Launch Angle 9.0 9.9 0.9 6.5 -3.4 8.5 2.0 0.7 -7.8 -3.6 -4.3 -0.1 3.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.7 1.4 8.0 7.3
Barrel % 4.3 8.8 4.5 4.4 -4.4 3.9 -0.5 5.0 1.1 0.0 -5.0 5.3 5.3 3.3 -2.0 6.8 3.5 12.8 6.0
Hard Hit % 39.8 41.2 1.4 36.7 -4.5 37.8 1.1 40.4 2.6 34.6 -5.8 34.5 -0.1 31.9 -2.6 36.4 4.5 43.0 6.6
LA Sweet-Spot % 31.3 34.2 2.9 32.3 -1.9 29.4 -2.9 25.9 -3.5 30.8 4.9 27.4 -3.4 20.9 -6.5 35.2 14.3 33.7 -1.5
xBA .271 .274 0.003 .242 -0.032 .236 -0.006 .211 -0.025 .240 0.029 .207 -0.033 .190 -0.017 .184 -0.006 .238 0.054
BA .276 .278 0.002 .202 -0.076 .234 0.032 .244 0.010 .235 -0.009 .174 -0.061 .252 0.078 .196 -0.056 .261 0.065
xwOBA .333 .365 0.032 .305 -0.060 .310 0.005 .280 -0.030 .320 0.040 .278 -0.042 .277 -0.001 .264 -0.013 .345 0.081
wOBA .335 .356 0.021 .259 -0.097 .297 0.038 .306 0.009 .310 0.004 .242 -0.068 .327 0.085 .279 -0.048 .344 0.065
xSLG .416 .461 0.045 .356 -0.105 .348 -0.008 .335 -0.013 .302 -0.033 .313 0.011 .271 -0.042 .299 0.028 .410 0.111
SLG .428 .456 0.028 .279 -0.177 .332 0.053 .383 0.051 .324 -0.059 .286 -0.038 .357 0.071 .331 -0.026 .412 0.081
K% 18.7 25.5 6.8 21.8 -3.7 23.9 2.1 27.4 3.5 21.4 -6.0 27.5 6.1 31.2 3.7 35.7 4.5 24.5 -11.2
BB% 8.3 12.8 4.5 11.3 -1.5 11.2 -0.1 9.7 -1.5 16.7 7.0 8.2 -8.5 13.5 5.3 10.7 -2.8 11.2 0.5
Swing % 42.2 42.4 0.2 47.3 4.9 44.5 -2.8 41.9 -2.6 40.4 -1.5 42.0 1.6 41.4 -0.6 43.8 2.4 46.2 2.4
Whiff% 19.3 26.8 7.5 24.7 -2.1 25.6 0.9 26.4 0.8 27.5 1.1 28.1 0.6 33.7 5.6 31.4 -2.3 22.4 -9.0
In Zone % 48.9 47.1 -1.8 50.8 3.7 49.6 -1.2 51.5 1.9 47.4 -4.1 51.5 4.1 43.0 -8.5 49.8 6.8 50.4 0.6
Out of Zone % 51.1 52.9 1.8 49.2 -3.7 50.4 1.2 48.5 -1.9 52.6 4.1 48.5 -4.1 57.0 8.5 50.2 -6.8 49.6 -0.6
Out of Zone Swing % 25.1 26.9 1.8 26.2 -0.7 24.5 -1.7 25.8 1.3 24.4 -1.4 25.5 1.1 29.7 4.2 31.6 1.9 23.7 -7.9
First Pitch Swing % 25.6 24.5 -1.1 29.0 4.5 28.4 -0.6 18.7 -9.7 14.3 -4.4 20.4 6.1 24.7 4.3 24.4 -0.3 32.4 8.0
First Pitch Strike % 62.2 51.6 -10.6 63.9 12.3 57.5 -6.4 56.4 -1.1 42.9 -13.5 58.6 15.7 53.5 -5.1 61.9 8.4 56.3 -5.6
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2016 Shifts 171 .375 110 0 0.0 61 20 32.8
2017 Shifts 237 .259 144 0 0.0 93 20 21.5
2018 Shifts 285 .297 159 1 0.6 126 51 40.5
2019 Shifts 224 .306 128 18 14.1 96 53 55.2
2020 Shifts 42 .310 25 0 0.0 17 10 58.8
2021 Shifts 181 .242 100 17 17.0 81 46 56.8
2022 Shifts 170 .327 91 13 14.3 79 53 67.1
2023 Shades 168 .279 94 0 0.0 74 21 28.4
2024 Shades 138 .348 68 0 0.0 70 32 45.7
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2012 532 16.1 35.2% 1.1% 253 24.0 0.0% 10.7%
2013 567 16.6 27.5% 0.9% 325 25.0 0.3% 13.5%
2014 468 17.0 19.4% 2.4% 313 24.4 0.3% 14.4%
2015 747 17.7 26.1% 6.4% 454 25.2 4.6% 29.3%
2016 205 20.2 19.0% 9.3% 167 27.1 7.2% 34.1%
2017 250 23.3 0.0% 4.4% 204 26.5 0.0% 16.2%
2018 320 23.5 0.0% 13.8% 233 26.9 0.0% 28.3%
2019 238 23.6 0.0% 13.0% 200 27.3 0.0% 27.5%
2020 55 24.8 0.0% 16.4% 29 27.4 0.0% 24.1%
2021 206 26.1 0.0% 25.7% 154 29.1 0.0% 43.5%
2022 180 23.1 0.6% 15.0% 149 25.9 0.0% 20.1%
2023 192 17.1 24.5% 0.5% 129 19.8 2.3% 0.8%
2024 120 17.7 15.8% 0.8% 116 19.3 0.0% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution