Win Probability is calculated by taking the current game situation -- including the score, inning, number of outs, and runners on base – and comparing it to similar situations throughout history. The identities of the teams and players involved are not accounted for; this is intended to show what has happened to previous teams in these situations. For example, a home team up by 4 runs in the 7th inning, with two outs and a runner on third, has a 97% Win Probability – meaning that previous teams in that situation went on to win the game 97% of the time. The lower table additionally adds in the context of the ball/strike count, if desired.

This data is based on the 10 seasons between 2016-2025. Note that this table works under regular season rules, so the 10th inning includes the context of the runner on second. In the postseason, for extras, select "9th inning."

This application was inspired by the work of Greg Stoll located here.

Run Expectancy is calculated by taking the current game situation – meaning the number of outs, count, and runners on base – and comparing it to similar situations throughout history. The identities of the teams and players involved are not accounted for; this is intended to show what has happened to previous teams in these situations. For example, a team with bases loaded and one out has historically been expected to score 1.63 runs; a team with the bases empty and one out has been expected to score just 0.26 runs. This data is based on the 10 seasons between 2016-2025.

This application was inspired by the work of Greg Stoll located here.