Justin Topa
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 4" 200LBS | Age: 32

Draft: 2013 | Rd: 17, #509, Pittsburgh Pirates | Long Island

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 1 2 3.18 25 0 1 22.2 23 1.24
4 Seasons 1 3 5.49 42 0 1 41.0 40 1.49
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 25 1-2 3.18 22.2 23 1.24
4 Seasons 42 1-3 5.49 41.0 40 1.49

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
Sweet
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2020 29 119 18 2 11.1 6.7 87.8 106.8 -2.2 38.9 .202 .355 .266 .236 .393 38.9 40.0 0.0 2.35 2.32
2021 30 88 21 2 9.5 8.7 92.5 109.9 12.7 33.3 .290 .503 .631 .334 .350 42.9 4.3 4.3 29.70 4.79
2022 31 125 27 1 3.7 2.9 87.0 110.2 -8.4 22.2 .248 .364 .306 .303 .305 37.0 11.4 11.4 4.91 3.80
2023 32 340 64 3 4.7 3.2 87.6 109.8 -0.1 25.0 .233 .316 .266 .268 .334 37.5 24.2 8.4 3.18 2.87
Player 672 130 8 6.2 4.4 88.3 110.2 0.0 27.7 .238 .357 .319 .278 .339 38.5 21.9 7.1
MLB 6.8 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.1 33.0 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 36.0 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Topa relies on 4 pitches.
Sinker
(45.9%) ,
Slider
(30.9%) ,
Cutter
(15.6%) ,
Changeup
(7.6%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2020 55.6 16.7 27.8 0.0 50.0 27.8 22.2 0.0 55.6 11.1 16.7 5.6 11.1 6.7
2021 42.9 33.3 19.0 4.8 33.3 23.8 42.9 0.0 33.3 23.8 19.0 14.3 9.5 8.7
2022 74.1 11.1 14.8 0.0 48.1 33.3 18.5 7.4 51.9 7.4 25.9 3.7 3.7 2.9
2023 62.5 10.9 20.3 6.3 37.5 32.8 29.7 7.8 40.6 17.2 21.9 4.7 4.7 3.2
Player 60.8 15.4 20.0 3.8 40.8 30.8 28.5 5.4 43.8 15.4 21.5 6.2 6.2 4.4
MLB 44.8 23.2 24.9 7.1 36.9 37.6 25.4 3.9 33.0 24.6 24.4 5.8 6.8 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 Cutter SEA R 53 91.4 25.4 -1.7 -7 0.6 -0.6 -1108
2023 Slider SEA R 105 82.9 38.5 -0.9 -2 14.0 6.8 94
2023 Sinker SEA R 156 95.2 29.8 4.6 18 17.1 0.8 5
2023 Changeup SEA R 26 87.4 36.9 3.3 10 18.6 2.6 16
2022 Slider MIL R 34 81.5 41.9 2.3 6 15.4 7.0 83
2022 Sinker MIL R 86 95.5 29.9 4.9 20 17.5 1.7 11
2022 Changeup MIL R 5 86.4 35.9 1.2 3 18.5 3.3 22
2021 Sinker MIL R 60 95.7 28.0 5.4 24 17.5 1.8 12
2021 Slider MIL R 28 80.2 42.5 0.5 1 16.9 8.0 91
2020 Sinker MIL R 83 97.5 25.0 4.1 19 17.8 1.1 7
2020 Slider MIL R 36 83.3 37.5 -1.1 -3 15.6 9.8 169
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 Sinker -3.1 -5 156 45.9 48 .250 .295 .276 11.3 18.8 17.6 .268 .355 .308 38.9
2023 Slider -1.6 -2 105 30.9 25 .208 .208 .225 28.9 40.0 33.3 .218 .263 .209 53.3
2023 Cutter 2.5 1 53 15.6 11 .333 .889 .536 19.4 18.2 15.4 .160 .307 .287 14.3
2023 Changeup -1.3 0 26 7.6 8 .125 .250 .156 23.1 25.0 18.2 .177 .276 .190 16.7
2022 Sinker -0.4 0 86 68.8 27 .280 .280 .352 8.1 11.1 18.8 .251 .364 .300 40.9
2022 Slider 3.1 1 34 27.2 7 .333 .500 .407 25.0 14.3 9.1 .233 .363 .319 20.0
2022 Changeup 2.3 0 5 4.0 -- -- -- 50.0 -- 0.0 -- -- -- --
2021 Sinker 5.0 3 60 68.2 16 .563 .750 .572 9.4 6.3 6.7 .289 .481 .325 53.3
2021 Slider 13.4 4 28 31.8 6 .500 1.500 .817 0.0 0.0 0.0 .293 .564 .358 16.7
2020 Sinker -0.5 0 83 69.7 22 .318 .545 .368 20.4 27.3 26.1 .271 .473 .315 43.8
2020 Slider -4.0 -1 36 30.3 8 .000 .000 .000 50.0 75.0 40.0 .012 .031 .017 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Sinker 79 97.5 87 18.8 2:00 2:45 -45
2020 Slider 36 83.3 57 16.5 8:15 9:00 -45
2021 Sinker 57 95.7 91 18.4 2:15 3:00 -45
2021 Slider 28 80.2 64 17.9 8:15 8:45 -30
2022 Sinker 85 95.5 90 18.5 2:15 3:15 -60
2022 Slider 34 81.5 63 16.5 8:30 8:45 -15
2023 Changeup 26 87.4 95 19.7 2:45 3:15 -30
2023 Cutter 53 91.4 38 6.9 1:15 12:00 75
2023 Sinker 138 95.2 81 17.9 2:00 3:00 -60
2023 Slider 101 82.8 55 14.8 8:30 9:00 -30
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2020 37 146 -2 -1 0 0 -3
2022 34 125 -1 0 1 1 1
2023 92 340 -5 -3 1 1 -6
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2020 119 52.9 76.2 75.0 30.4 64.7 33.6 53.3 54.6 27.7 5.9 100.0
2021 88 61.4 63.0 97.1 23.5 75.0 44.3 91.3 47.7 7.1 3.4 100.0
2022 125 40.8 56.9 93.1 29.7 77.3 41.6 61.8 40.8 13.7 8.8 90.9
2023 340 60.3 62.0 85.8 25.9 62.9 41.5 67.4 47.6 17.9 10.0 73.5
Player 672 55.5 63.8 86.1 27.4 68.3 40.5 67.0 47.6 17.8 8.2 81.8
MLB 48.5 66.9 82.0 28.4 58.2 42.6 60.8 47.1 24.7 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2020 97 19 33
2022 80 30 9
2023 87 59 87 93 62 84 85 75 59 56 49 7 25 61 34 21
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2020 22.2 1 1.0 0 1 1 0 0.0
2021 21.7 2 0.9 1 3 1 0 0.0
2022 -- 0 0.6 -1 1 1 0 --
2023 22.3 1 0.9 0 0 1 0 0.0
Player 22.0 4 3.3 1 5 4 0 0.0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2020 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2021 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 3 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 1 1
2022 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
2023 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0
Player 4 5 2 3 4 3 4 2 1 1 3 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 2 1 5 4 4 4 2
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2020 2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 97.5 95.7 -1.8 95.5 -0.2 94.2 -1.3
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.4 0.0 87.4 1.0
Breaking Velocity 83.3 80.2 -3.1 81.5 1.3 82.9 1.4
Exit Velocity 87.8 92.5 4.7 87.0 -5.5 87.6 0.6
Launch Angle -2.2 12.7 14.9 -8.4 -21.1 -0.1 8.3
Barrel % 11.1 9.5 -1.6 3.7 -5.8 4.7 1.0
Hard Hit % 38.9 42.9 4.0 37.0 -5.9 37.5 0.5
Sweet Spot % 38.9 33.3 -5.6 22.2 -11.1 25.0 2.8
xBA .202 .290 0.088 .248 -0.042 .233 -0.015
BA .233 .545 0.312 .290 -0.255 .235 -0.055
xwOBA .236 .334 0.098 .303 -0.031 .268 -0.035
wOBA .266 .631 0.365 .306 -0.325 .266 -0.040
xSLG .355 .503 0.148 .364 -0.139 .316 -0.048
SLG .400 .955 0.555 .323 -0.632 .329 0.006
K% 40.0 4.3 -35.7 11.4 7.1 24.2 12.8
BB% 0.0 4.3 4.3 11.4 7.1 8.4 -3.0
Swing % 54.6 47.7 -6.9 40.8 -6.9 47.6 6.8
Whiff% 27.7 7.1 -20.6 13.7 6.6 17.9 4.2
In Zone % 52.9 61.4 8.5 40.8 -20.6 60.3 19.5
Out of Zone % 47.1 38.6 -8.5 59.2 20.6 39.7 -19.5
Out of Zone Swing % 30.4 23.5 -6.9 29.7 6.2 25.9 -3.8
First Pitch Swing % 26.7 30.4 3.7 20.6 -9.8 29.3 8.7
First Pitch Strike % 53.3 91.3 38.0 61.8 -29.5 67.4 5.6
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2020 30 .266 19 1 5.3 11 7 63.6
2021 22 .631 15 0 0.0 7 2 28.6
2022 34 .306 26 2 7.7 8 4 50.0
2023 92 .266 56 0 0.0 36 0 0.0

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2020 26 20.6 0.0% 7.7% 25 24.9 0.0% 12.0%
2021 22 19.3 0.0% 9.1% 19 24.7 0.0% 10.5%
2022 34 19.2 0.0% 0.0% 33 24.2 0.0% 6.1%
2023 38 14.9 52.6% 0.0% 26 18.2 3.8% 0.0%
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Pitch Distribution