Justin Topa
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 4" 200LBS | Age: 34
Draft: 2013 | Rd: 17, #509, Pittsburgh Pirates | Long Island
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2023 5 4 2.61 75 0 3 69 61 1.14
2024 0 0 0.00 3 0 0 2.1 2 0.43
2025 1 2 3.47 23 1 0 23.1 16 1.37
6 Seasons 6 7 3.66 118 1 3 113 96 1.28
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2023 75 5-4 2.61 69 61 1.14
2024 3 0-0 0.00 2.1 2 0.43
2025 23 1-2 3.47 23.1 16 1.37
6 Seasons 118 6-7 3.66 113 96 1.28
MLB Percentile Rankings
Movement Profile (Induced Break)
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls
Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity
Max EV Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2020 29 119 18 2 11.1 6.7 87.8 106.8 -2.2 38.9 .202 .355 .266 .236 .393 38.9 40.0 0.0 2.35 2.32
2021 30 88 21 2 9.5 8.7 92.5 109.9 12.7 33.3 .289 .503 .631 .333 .349 42.9 4.3 4.3 29.70 4.79
2022 31 125 27 1 3.7 2.9 87.0 110.2 -8.4 22.2 .247 .363 .306 .302 .304 37.0 11.4 11.4 4.91 3.78
2023 32 1046 197 6 3.0 2.2 87.5 110.4 2.6 26.9 .231 .320 .269 .268 .315 36.5 21.9 6.5 2.61 2.97
2024 33 20 6 0 0.0 0.0 75.2 88.7 10.6 16.7 .171 .186 .110 .157 .209 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.00 1.07
2025 34 380 80 5 6.3 4.8 90.1 112.9 8.7 40.0 .291 .432 .305 .345 .378 50.0 15.2 6.7 3.47 4.58
Player 1778 349 16 4.6 3.3 88.2 112.9 3.7 30.4 .245 .356 .294 .287 .333 39.5 20.0 6.3
MLB 7.1 4.8 88.5 122.9 12.4 33.2 .245 .405 .316 .315 .369 36.7 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Topa relies on 4 pitches.
Sinker
(42.2%) ,
Sweeper
(25.1%) ,
Cutter
(21.1%) ,
Changeup
(11.6%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

AIR: Fly Balls + Line Drives + Popups All Batted Balls Batted Ball Breakdown
Season GB % AIR % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Pull GB % Straight GB % Oppo GB % Pull AIR % Straight AIR % Oppo AIR %
2020 55.6 44.4 16.7 27.8 0.0 50.0 27.8 22.2 33.3 16.7 5.6 16.7 11.1 16.7
2021 42.9 57.1 33.3 19.0 4.8 33.3 23.8 42.9 14.3 9.5 19.0 19.0 14.3 23.8
2022 74.1 25.9 11.1 14.8 0.0 48.1 33.3 18.5 37.0 22.2 14.8 11.1 11.1 3.7
2023 57.4 42.6 16.2 22.3 4.1 38.1 38.6 23.4 23.9 25.4 8.1 14.2 13.2 15.2
2024 50.0 50.0 0.0 16.7 33.3 50.0 50.0 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.0
2025 43.8 56.3 18.8 30.0 7.5 35.0 33.8 31.3 17.5 16.3 10.0 17.5 17.5 21.3
Player 54.4 45.6 17.2 23.5 4.9 38.7 35.8 25.5 23.8 21.2 9.5 14.9 14.6 16.0
MLB 44.4 55.6 23.9 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.4 25.2 20.6 17.7 5.9 16.6 19.7 19.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Quality of Contact

Season Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2020 0.0 55.6 11.1 16.7 5.6 11.1 6.7
2021 0.0 33.3 23.8 19.0 14.3 9.5 8.7
2022 7.4 51.9 7.4 25.9 3.7 3.7 2.9
2023 5.1 44.7 19.8 21.3 4.1 3.0 2.2
2024 16.7 50.0 16.7 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
2025 7.5 33.8 18.8 22.5 11.3 6.3 4.8
Player 5.4 42.7 18.3 21.5 6.3 4.6 3.3
MLB 3.9 32.6 24.9 24.4 5.9 7.1 4.8
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement


How this works: This section shows two different ways to evaluate pitch movement. On the left, “Total Movement” shows the real-world movement of a pitch, including the forces of gravity, which affects every pitch thrown. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren't 'better' just because they have more time to move, a pitch's movement is compared to other pitches of the same pitch type, within +/- 2 MPH and +/- 0.5 feet of extension/release. On the right, Induced Movement (or IVB) is reported without gravity, and attempts to isolate movement created by the pitcher's ability to spin and manipulate the ball.
Total Movement (in inches, w/ gravity)Induced Movement (in inches, w/o gravity)
YearPitchTeamHand#MPHVertical
Drop
vs.
Comparable
Horizontal
Break
vs.
Comparable
Vertical
Break
vs. AvgHorizontal
Break
vs. Avg
2025 Sweeper MIN R 95 81.8 37.6 -2.5 14.2GLV -0.6 3.5 -2.2 14.2GLV 0.2
2025 Changeup MIN R 44 85.9 42.9 7.8 12.1ARM -3.3 -5.6 9.7 12.1ARM -2.7
2025 Sinker MIN R 160 93.9 30.7 4.2 18.0ARM 1.3 0.4 6.9 18.0ARM 2.7
2025 Cutter MIN R 80 90.7 27.1 -2.3 1.6ARM -2.3 6.0 -2.4 1.6ARM -3.9
2024 Cutter MIN R 2 91.2 24.1 -0.2 4.6ARM -5.6 8.5 0.2 4.6ARM -7.3
2024 Sweeper MIN R 6 81.6 36.3 -4.4 13.8GLV -1.4 4.8 -3.3 13.8GLV -0.3
2024 Changeup MIN R 7 84.2 37.8 3.4 19.1ARM 4.2 0.8 4.1 19.1ARM 4.9
2024 Sinker MIN R 5 92.0 31.9 5.1 18.5ARM 2.9 0.4 6.8 18.5ARM 3.6
! Note: Years are in reverse order.

Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2025 Sinker -0.5 -1 160 42.1 46 .333 .436 .376 6.0 6.5 9.4 .318 .456 .394 48.6
2025 Sweeper 0.6 1 95 25.0 28 .214 .286 .218 29.3 32.1 23.7 .247 .378 .267 57.9
2025 Cutter -1.9 -2 80 21.1 21 .263 .474 .436 15.2 14.3 16.7 .302 .474 .365 43.8
2025 Changeup 1.6 1 44 11.6 9 .111 .111 .100 23.5 11.1 6.7 .283 .406 .294 50.0
2024 Changeup 3.3 0 7 35.0 1 .000 .000 .000 33.3 0.0 0.0 .072 .074 .068 0.0
2024 Sweeper 15.6 1 6 30.0 4 .000 .000 .000 60.0 50.0 66.7 .021 .027 .019 0.0
2024 Sinker 7.7 0 5 25.0 1 .000 .000 .000 25.0 0.0 -- .065 .087 .058 0.0
2024 Cutter -13.3 0 2 10.0 2 .500 .500 .450 0.0 0.0 -- .574 .610 .525 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.

Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2025 Changeup 44 85.9 74 15.1 3:00 4:00 -60
2025 Cutter 80 90.7 39 5.4 1:30 12:45 45
2025 Sinker 158 93.9 89 19.0 2:15 3:00 -45
2025 Sweeper 94 81.8 51 15.1 8:30 9:15 -45
2023 Changeup 70 86.8 95 19.1 2:45 3:15 -30
2023 Cutter 190 92.4 49 8.0 1:30 12:30 60
2023 Sinker 428 95.0 86 18.4 2:15 3:15 -60
2023 Sweeper 303 82.8 54 14.9 8:30 9:00 -30
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Pitcher Arm Angle

! Note: Data is available from 2020 through the present.
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Statcast Pitching Run Value

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2020 30 119 0 1 0 0 1
2021 22 88 -3 -1 -2 0 -5
2022 34 125 1 0 -1 -1 -1
2023 275 1,046 8 16 -6 -3 14
2024 8 20 0 1 0 0 1
2025 104 379 2 1 -1 -3 -1
Player 473 1,777 8 18 -9 8 10
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2020 119 52.9 76.2 75.0 30.4 64.7 33.6 53.3 54.6 27.7 5.9 100.0
2021 88 61.4 63.0 97.1 23.5 75.0 44.3 91.3 47.7 7.1 3.4 100.0
2022 125 40.8 56.9 93.1 29.7 77.3 41.6 61.8 40.8 13.7 8.8 90.9
2023 1,046 54.8 62.8 85.6 26.8 63.8 43.6 65.8 46.6 19.5 9.4 73.5
2024 20 65.0 76.9 70.0 57.1 50.0 60.0 87.5 70.0 35.7 10.0 50.0
2025 380 53.2 61.4 91.1 26.4 66.0 40.8 66.7 45.0 15.8 7.6 72.4
Player 1,778 53.8 63.3 86.6 27.4 65.8 42.4 66.5 46.7 18.7 8.4 76.0
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.1 28.4 57.6 42.6 61.1 47.2 25.0 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA
xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit%
K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate
FB
Velo
FB
Spin
CB
Spin
Extension
2020 97 21 34
2021 83 16 15
2022 77 32 8
2023 94 67 91 96 79 95 97 80 67 38 78 7 24 68 17 22
2025 25 9 38 68 16 74 75 38 4 5 72 1 34 42 21 6
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2020 22.17 1 1.0 0 1 1 0 0.0
2021 21.66 2 0.8 1 3 1 0 0.0
2022 -- 0 0.6 -1 1 1 0 --
2023 23.50 4 3.1 1 5 3 0 0.0
2025 20.63 1 1.6 -1 2 1 1 100.0
Player 22.52 8 7.1 1 12 7 1 12.5
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted

Year HR
2020 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2021 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 3 1 2 0 0 2 1 1 1 1
2022 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
2023 4 2 3 6 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 1
2025 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 4 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1
Player 8 7 5 11 9 7 7 5 5 5 6 9 7 7 7 8 6 6 7 11 8 8 11 8 4 4 8 8 8 7 4
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-   2024 +/-   2025
Fastball Velocity 97.5 -1.8 95.7 -0.2 95.5 -1.2 94.3 -2.5 91.8 1.0 92.8
Offspeed Velocity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.4 0.4 86.8 -2.6 84.2 1.7 85.9
Breaking Velocity 83.3 -3.1 80.2 1.3 81.5 1.3 82.8 -1.2 81.6 0.2 81.8
Exit Velocity 87.8 4.7 92.5 -5.5 87.0 0.5 87.5 -12.3 75.2 14.9 90.1
Launch Angle -2.2 14.9 12.7 -21.1 -8.4 11.0 2.6 8.0 10.6 -1.9 8.7
Barrel % 11.1 -1.6 9.5 -5.8 3.7 -0.7 3.0 -3.0 0.0 6.3 6.3
Hard Hit % 38.9 4.0 42.9 -5.9 37.0 -0.5 36.5 -36.5 0.0 50.0 50.0
LA Sweet-Spot % 38.9 -5.6 33.3 -11.1 22.2 4.7 26.9 -10.2 16.7 23.3 40.0
xBA .202 0.087 .289 -0.042 .247 -0.016 .231 -0.060 .171 0.120 .291
BA .233 0.312 .545 -0.255 .290 -0.050 .240 -0.115 .125 0.138 .263
xwOBA .236 0.097 .333 -0.031 .302 -0.034 .268 -0.111 .157 0.188 .345
wOBA .266 0.365 .631 -0.325 .306 -0.037 .269 -0.159 .110 0.195 .305
xSLG .355 0.148 .503 -0.140 .363 -0.043 .320 -0.134 .186 0.246 .432
SLG .400 0.555 .955 -0.632 .323 0.004 .327 -0.202 .125 0.243 .368
K% 40.0 -35.7 4.3 7.1 11.4 10.5 21.9 3.1 25.0 -9.8 15.2
BB% 0.0 4.3 4.3 7.1 11.4 -4.9 6.5 -6.5 0.0 6.7 6.7
Swing % 54.6 -6.9 47.7 -6.9 40.8 5.8 46.6 23.4 70.0 -25.0 45.0
Whiff% 27.7 -20.6 7.1 6.6 13.7 5.8 19.5 16.2 35.7 -19.9 15.8
In Zone % 52.9 8.5 61.4 -20.6 40.8 14.0 54.8 10.2 65.0 -11.8 53.2
Out of Zone % 47.1 -8.5 38.6 20.6 59.2 -14.0 45.2 -10.2 35.0 11.8 46.8
Out of Zone Swing % 30.4 -6.9 23.5 6.2 29.7 -2.9 26.8 30.3 57.1 -30.7 26.4
First Pitch Swing % 26.7 3.7 30.4 -9.8 20.6 6.3 26.9 35.6 62.5 -33.0 29.5
First Pitch Strike % 53.3 38.0 91.3 -29.5 61.8 4.0 65.8 21.7 87.5 -20.8 66.7
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2020 Shifts 30 .266 19 1 5.3 11 7 63.6
2021 Shifts 22 .631 15 0 0.0 7 2 28.6
2022 Shifts 34 .306 26 2 7.7 8 4 50.0
2023 Shades 275 .269 178 15 8.4 97 49 50.5
2024 Shades 8 .110 3 0 0.0 5 1 20.0
2025 Shades 104 .305 65 0 0.0 39 25 64.1
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2020 26 20.6 0.0% 7.7% 25 24.9 0.0% 12.0%
2021 22 19.3 0.0% 9.1% 19 24.7 0.0% 10.5%
2022 34 19.2 0.0% 0.0% 33 24.2 0.0% 6.1%
2023 256 15.5 35.2% 0.4% 216 19.0 0.9% 0.5%
2024 5 17.7 40.0% 0.0% 1 21.8 0.0% 0.0%
2025 75 15.8 29.3% 0.0% 92 18.8 2.2% 0.0%

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Pitch Distribution