Joe Kelly
P | Bats/Throws: R/R | 6' 1" 174LBS | Age: 35
Draft: 2009 | Rd: 3, #98, St. Louis Cardinals | UC Riverside
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 2 0 2.86 48 0 2 44 50 0.98
2022 1 3 6.08 43 1 1 37 53 1.59
2023 2 5 4.12 42 0 1 39.1 60 1.19
12 Seasons 53 37 3.95 450 81 7 807 732 1.36
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 48 2-0 2.86 44 50 0.98
2022 43 1-3 6.08 37 53 1.59
2023 42 2-5 4.12 39.1 60 1.19
12 Seasons 450 53-37 3.95 807 732 1.36
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution

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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 Sweet
Spot %		 XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 27 2378 422 18 4.3 3.1 89.3 113.4 9.0 31.3 .271 .416 .335 .333 .373 39.8 18.7 8.3 4.82 4.64
2016 28 739 114 10 8.8 5.3 91.2 111.8 9.9 34.2 .274 .461 .356 .365 .449 41.2 25.5 12.8 5.17 5.86
2017 29 1025 158 7 4.4 2.9 89.1 113.0 6.5 32.3 .242 .357 .259 .305 .338 36.7 21.8 11.3 2.79 3.98
2018 30 1176 180 7 3.9 2.5 89.7 113.6 8.5 29.4 .236 .348 .297 .310 .348 37.8 23.9 11.2 4.39 4.07
2019 31 894 139 7 5.0 3.1 88.9 113.5 0.7 25.9 .211 .335 .306 .280 .338 40.4 27.4 9.7 4.56 3.41
2020 32 171 26 0 0.0 0.0 88.2 101.7 -3.6 30.8 .240 .303 .310 .320 .329 34.6 21.4 16.7 1.80 4.36
2021 33 712 113 6 5.3 3.3 85.5 110.1 -0.1 27.4 .208 .314 .242 .279 .335 34.5 27.5 8.2 2.86 3.25
2022 34 703 91 3 3.3 1.8 85.9 106.0 -0.7 20.9 .190 .272 .327 .277 .320 31.9 31.2 13.5 6.08 3.15
2023 35 712 88 6 6.8 3.6 84.9 114.3 0.7 35.2 .185 .299 .279 .264 .347 36.4 35.7 10.7 4.12 2.88
Player 8510 1331 64 4.8 3.1 88.6 114.3 5.6 30.1 .237 .363 .306 .308 .359 38.0 24.5 10.4
MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.3 22.1 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 5 pitches.
Sinker
(30.6%) ,
Slider
(25.1%) ,
Curveball
(17.7%) ,
4-Seam Fastball
(15.9%) ,
Changeup
(10.7%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2015 46.0 20.1 27.5 6.4 32.2 38.9 28.9 0.7 36.3 22.3 29.6 5.5 4.3 3.1
2016 48.2 18.4 28.1 5.3 36.0 37.7 26.3 1.8 35.1 13.2 26.3 8.8 8.8 5.3
2017 51.3 19.6 25.9 3.2 28.5 38.6 32.9 3.2 42.4 19.0 26.6 4.4 4.4 2.9
2018 48.9 18.3 26.1 6.7 30.6 37.2 31.7 2.2 37.8 21.7 27.8 6.1 3.9 2.5
2019 62.6 11.5 22.3 3.6 32.4 43.2 24.5 1.4 54.0 9.4 21.6 6.5 5.0 3.1
2020 57.7 7.7 30.8 3.8 34.6 46.2 19.2 0.0 50.0 15.4 30.8 3.8 0.0 0.0
2021 58.4 12.4 21.2 8.0 35.4 45.1 19.5 11.5 46.0 13.3 18.6 5.3 5.3 3.3
2022 67.0 17.6 12.1 3.3 33.0 42.9 24.2 8.8 47.3 11.0 23.1 5.5 3.3 1.8
2023 58.0 18.2 23.9 0.0 34.1 43.2 22.7 10.2 40.9 12.5 21.6 6.8 6.8 3.6
Player 52.4 17.6 24.9 5.1 32.4 40.2 27.3 3.5 41.1 17.4 26.0 5.9 4.8 3.1
MLB 44.6 23.5 24.9 7.0 37.0 37.6 25.3 3.9 32.8 24.7 24.4 5.8 6.9 4.7
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2023 Sinker LAD R 218 98.9 20.2 -1.5 -7 17.3 0.8 5
2023 Slider LAD R 179 91.6 33.0 2.9 10 6.2 2.3 62
2023 4-Seamer LAD R 113 99.0 14.4 -0.9 -7 12.5 3.2 34
2023 Changeup LAD R 76 89.2 28.0 -2.3 -8 18.1 3.1 21
2023 Curveball LAD R 126 89.4 42.2 1.6 4 5.2 1.3 32
2022 Sinker CWS R 228 97.9 18.9 -2.2 -10 15.6 -0.6 -3
2022 Slider CWS R 113 88.8 38.5 6.4 20 13.2 9.5 263
2022 4-Seamer CWS R 50 97.7 15.0 -1.3 -10 12.0 2.8 31
2022 Changeup CWS R 60 87.1 30.1 -0.8 -3 17.1 2.5 17
2022 Curveball CWS R 252 87.7 45.1 3.5 8 6.3 2.3 56
2021 Changeup LAD R 115 86.9 30.4 -0.2 -1 17.7 3.0 21
2021 Curveball LAD R 307 87.1 45.9 1.3 3 8.6 0.8 11
2021 4-Seamer LAD R 49 97.5 17.7 -3.5 -24 11.1 1.9 21
2021 Sinker LAD R 241 97.7 18.6 -1.9 -9 15.8 -0.1 -1
2020 Curveball LAD R 105 87.0 46.6 2.1 5 10.0 1.0 11
2020 Slider LAD R 3 89.2 40.1 8.5 27 7.6 4.2 122
2020 Sinker LAD R 32 96.5 21.1 -0.1 0 15.7 -0.3 -2
2020 4-Seamer LAD R 31 97.4 16.2 -2.1 -15 11.4 2.3 26
2019 Curveball LAD R 322 87.2 50.0 4.5 10 10.5 2.7 34
2019 Sinker LAD R 201 98.3 19.0 -0.3 -2 15.3 -0.1 0
2019 4-Seamer LAD R 247 97.5 14.8 -0.7 -5 9.5 0.9 11
2019 Changeup LAD R 111 87.6 29.3 -0.2 -1 17.0 2.7 19
2018 Sinker BOS R 65 97.6 16.6 -2.6 -14 14.8 -0.2 -1
2018 4-Seamer BOS R 586 98.1 13.7 0.5 4 9.2 0.8 9
2018 Curveball BOS R 219 84.3 56.4 7.8 16 9.6 2.1 28
2018 Slider BOS R 176 88.0 38.9 4.7 14 5.7 1.8 45
2018 Changeup BOS R 129 87.7 29.0 -1.4 -5 16.5 2.3 16
2017 Slider BOS R 157 89.6 32.8 2.7 9 4.6 2.0 74
2017 Changeup BOS R 31 87.5 28.0 -0.7 -3 16.4 2.5 18
2017 Sinker BOS R 315 99.0 14.3 -2.3 -14 14.2 -1.3 -8
2017 Curveball BOS R 187 83.8 52.4 4.3 9 5.9 -0.7 -10
2017 4-Seamer BOS R 331 99.0 10.6 1.0 8 9.7 0.8 9
2016 Curveball BOS R 65 82.7 53.6 6.8 14 11.0 2.0 23
2016 Changeup BOS R 43 85.9 24.7 -5.0 -17 14.5 1.2 9
2016 Slider BOS R 122 87.8 37.5 6.9 22 7.7 3.5 84
2016 4-Seamer BOS R 281 97.6 12.4 0.5 4 7.7 -0.5 -6
2016 Sinker BOS R 154 96.0 16.0 -2.3 -12 14.1 -0.4 -3
2015 Changeup BOS R 263 85.5 -- -- 14.3 0.7 5
2015 Sinker BOS R 775 96.0 -- -- 13.5 -1.5 -10
2015 4-Seamer BOS R 745 96.2 -- -- 9.4 1.2 14
2015 Curveball BOS R 214 80.1 -- -- 13.3 3.4 34
2015 Slider BOS R 334 86.3 -- -- 8.2 3.5 74
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2023 Sinker 0.3 1 218 30.6 41 .258 .323 .350 21.6 17.1 17.5 .275 .343 .377 33.3
2023 Slider 2.0 4 179 25.1 44 .095 .167 .158 46.5 52.3 34.3 .137 .229 .180 21.1
2023 Curveball -2.8 -4 126 17.7 23 .150 .300 .365 39.2 43.5 25.6 .153 .282 .279 60.0
2023 4-Seamer -1.2 -1 113 15.9 33 .333 .600 .423 18.0 36.4 24.5 .217 .447 .313 44.4
2023 Changeup 0.8 1 76 10.7 27 .160 .320 .239 27.0 29.6 21.1 .143 .201 .189 35.3
2022 Curveball 0.8 2 252 35.8 58 .275 .294 .301 30.6 17.2 16.4 .203 .233 .248 23.8
2022 Sinker -1.9 -4 228 32.4 52 .300 .475 .417 26.7 30.8 36.4 .235 .390 .367 58.3
2022 Slider -0.8 -1 113 16.1 29 .240 .360 .350 48.3 37.9 28.9 .171 .225 .246 14.3
2022 Changeup -4.2 -3 60 8.5 19 .188 .375 .358 39.3 47.4 23.1 .127 .280 .259 14.3
2022 4-Seamer 4.2 2 50 7.1 12 .091 .182 .163 27.3 58.3 41.2 .101 .113 .144 50.0
2021 Curveball 3.2 10 307 43.1 71 .179 .299 .235 32.6 29.6 27.3 .235 .401 .298 44.7
2021 Sinker 0.6 1 241 33.8 62 .167 .229 .294 14.1 12.9 17.8 .238 .279 .336 34.1
2021 Changeup -1.8 -2 115 16.2 38 .167 .361 .292 26.8 39.5 20.3 .132 .230 .184 14.3
2021 4-Seamer 4.2 2 49 6.9 10 .200 .200 .180 50.0 60.0 35.3 .151 .199 .152 25.0
2020 Curveball 0.7 1 105 61.4 26 .273 .409 .329 34.8 30.8 25.8 .214 .256 .274 46.7
2020 Sinker 1.9 1 32 18.7 6 .167 .167 .150 0.0 16.7 14.3 .186 .225 .182 0.0
2020 4-Seamer 2.0 1 31 18.1 10 .167 .167 .370 18.2 0.0 0.0 .390 .552 .524 33.3
2020 Slider 1.9 0 3 1.8 -- -- -- 100.0 -- -- -- -- -- --
2019 Curveball -0.1 0 322 36.0 73 .137 .247 .210 40.5 41.1 34.5 .180 .290 .208 34.9
2019 4-Seamer 2.0 5 247 27.6 69 .259 .431 .372 15.9 20.3 25.5 .263 .449 .364 50.0
2019 Sinker -0.5 -1 201 22.5 47 .368 .500 .440 20.0 12.8 13.0 .216 .314 .319 37.5
2019 Changeup -1.4 -2 111 12.4 32 .241 .310 .284 27.1 37.5 17.1 .179 .251 .235 35.3
2018 4-Seamer 0.2 1 586 49.8 160 .281 .374 .348 16.6 17.5 15.6 .283 .406 .351 44.6
2018 Curveball 0.2 0 219 18.6 34 .233 .333 .259 39.1 35.3 24.0 .203 .324 .244 30.0
2018 Slider -2.2 -4 176 15.0 33 .233 .400 .335 35.0 24.2 15.1 .200 .291 .258 22.7
2018 Changeup 0.5 1 129 11.0 41 .094 .188 .251 50.0 46.3 27.9 .055 .071 .201 14.3
2018 Sinker 6.1 4 65 5.5 17 .077 .077 .218 12.9 5.9 4.8 .345 .599 .473 41.7
2017 4-Seamer 1.2 4 331 32.3 82 .188 .261 .276 22.5 19.5 14.0 .226 .303 .302 43.4
2017 Sinker 3.0 10 315 30.7 76 .171 .243 .212 18.4 19.7 13.3 .278 .419 .319 35.7
2017 Curveball -2.0 -4 187 18.2 30 .407 .593 .460 22.9 13.3 8.3 .307 .536 .388 34.8
2017 Slider 1.0 2 157 15.3 35 .167 .200 .244 39.4 20.0 11.1 .207 .288 .277 29.2
2017 Changeup 2.0 1 31 3.0 14 .083 .083 .164 66.7 71.4 47.6 .061 .067 .148 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2023 Changeup 76 89.2 99 19.7 2:30 2:30 0
2023 4-Seam Fastball 112 99.0 97 18.5 1:30 1:30 0
2023 Knuckle Curve 124 89.5 52 11.6 7:30 7:00 30
2023 Sinker 206 98.9 94 19.5 1:45 2:15 -30
2023 Slider 174 91.6 27 7.3 7:45 8:30 -45
2022 Changeup 57 87.1 98 18.4 2:30 2:30 0
2022 4-Seam Fastball 50 97.7 98 18.1 1:30 1:30 0
2022 Knuckle Curve 242 87.7 54 13.5 7:30 7:00 30
2022 Sinker 216 97.9 97 18.5 1:30 2:00 -30
2022 Slider 108 88.8 45 15.0 7:30 8:15 -45
2021 Changeup 115 86.9 98 19.1 2:30 2:30 0
2021 4-Seam Fastball 49 97.5 94 15.6 1:30 1:45 -15
2021 Knuckle Curve 299 87.1 62 15.1 7:30 7:15 15
2021 Sinker 239 97.7 93 19.0 1:30 2:00 -30
2020 4-Seam Fastball 28 97.3 92 16.7 1:30 1:30 0
2020 Knuckle Curve 89 86.9 64 16.4 7:30 7:15 15
2020 Sinker 30 96.6 91 18.0 1:30 2:15 -45
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2012 486 1,809 0 12 -5 -8 -2
2013 620 2,298 20 15 -4 -12 18
2014 412 1,569 8 5 -8 -8 -4
2015 587 2,378 1 14 -15 -9 -9
2016 199 792 3 6 -4 -5 -1
2017 248 1,069 18 7 -7 -5 13
2018 329 1,345 10 13 -9 -7 7
2019 237 951 2 3 -4 -4 -3
2020 58 234 4 0 0 -1 3
2021 202 812 5 16 -5 -4 12
2022 170 703 6 -2 -3 -5 -4
2023 176 743 4 5 -2 -6 1
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 2,378 48.9 60.1 88.8 25.1 60.7 43.6 62.2 42.2 18.8 7.9 73.9
2016 739 47.1 59.8 82.2 26.9 53.3 43.2 51.6 42.4 26.8 5.4 72.5
2017 1,025 50.8 67.8 78.7 26.2 65.9 42.8 63.9 47.3 24.7 7.3 72.0
2018 1,176 49.6 64.8 79.1 24.5 61.4 41.4 57.5 44.5 25.6 8.0 80.9
2019 894 51.5 56.6 83.3 25.8 50.9 39.3 56.4 41.9 26.4 8.3 61.6
2020 171 47.4 58.0 89.4 24.4 36.4 39.8 42.9 40.4 27.5 7.6 61.5
2021 712 51.5 57.5 80.6 25.5 50.0 43.5 58.6 42.0 28.1 7.6 61.1
2022 703 43.0 57.0 78.5 29.7 46.2 44.0 53.5 41.4 33.7 5.8 58.5
2023 712 49.8 56.1 81.4 31.6 46.0 39.1 61.9 43.8 31.4 8.1 63.8
Player 8,510 49.1 60.5 82.9 26.3 55.5 42.3 58.7 43.1 25.2 7.5 70.0
MLB 48.6 67.0 82.0 28.5 58.0 42.6 60.9 47.1 24.8 7.3 76.1
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA 		xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit% 		K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate 		FB
Velo 		FB
Spin 		CB
Spin 		Extension
2015 19 15 28 45 14 38 70 17 4 37 33 18 8 90 23 93 59
2016 95 33 95 37
2017 58 54 77 85 33 85 79 9 17 52 12 54 34 100 52 96 33
2018 46 55 79 88 21 89 92 12 29 60 12 56 13 100 52 98 26
2019 83 83 91 89 67 92 86 42 18 75 25 58 14 98 24 99 43
2020 94 40 97 35
2021 97 19 92 27
2022 96 37 91 20
2023 98 54 95 35
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2016 24.3 5 5.7 -1 2 6 2 40.0
2017 23.0 3 5.1 -2 2 5 1 33.3
2018 24.8 4 4.7 -1 6 5 1 25.0
2019 22.9 7 5.1 2 4 6 0 0.0
2020 -- 0 0.5 -1 0 1 0 --
2021 22.7 4 3.8 0 1 2 2 50.0
2022 22.1 2 2.4 0 2 2 1 50.0
2023 23.5 3 4.2 -1 2 4 1 33.3
Player 23.4 28 31.4 -3 19 31 8 28.6

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2016 5 6 4 7 7 6 7 4 5 4 7 6 6 4 5 6 3 4 5 6 4 4 7 7 7 5 7 9 8 7 4
2017 3 5 3 3 5 6 6 3 4 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 7 4 5 6 7 6 5 5 4 6 7 6 4
2018 4 7 4 5 7 4 6 4 5 1 5 10 4 4 4 4 5 3 4 7 6 4 7 4 2 1 5 7 4 5 3
2019 7 6 3 5 5 5 7 5 2 3 4 7 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 4 5 4 7 7 4 3
2020 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0
2021 4 5 3 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 4 4 5 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 5 4 5 3 3
2022 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 4 2 3 3 3 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 1
2023 3 4 1 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 3 5 6 6 4 5 4 4 2 6 7 4 3 4 4 6 3 3
Player 28 36 20 31 34 32 38 25 24 20 32 39 36 29 33 34 31 23 34 32 32 30 42 38 29 23 31 41 41 32 21
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-   2022 +/-   2023 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 96.1 97.0 0.9 ↑ 99.0 2.0 ↑ 98.1 -0.9 ↓ 97.9 -0.2 ↓ 96.9 -1.0 ↓ 97.6 0.7 ↑ 97.9 0.3 ↑ 98.9 1.0 ↑
Offspeed Velocity 85.5 85.9 0.4 ↑ 87.5 1.6 ↑ 87.7 0.2 ↑ 87.6 -0.1 ↓ 0.0 0.0 86.9 0.0 87.1 0.2 ↑ 89.2 2.1 ↑
Breaking Velocity 83.9 85.9 2.0 ↑ 86.4 0.5 ↑ 85.9 -0.5 ↓ 87.2 1.3 ↑ 87.1 -0.1 ↓ 87.1 0.0 88.1 1.0 ↑ 90.7 2.6 ↑
Exit Velocity 89.3 91.2 1.9 ↑ 89.1 -2.1 ↓ 89.7 0.6 ↑ 88.9 -0.8 ↓ 88.2 -0.7 ↓ 85.5 -2.7 ↓ 85.9 0.4 ↑ 84.9 -1.0 ↓
Launch Angle 9.0 9.9 0.9 ↑ 6.5 -3.4 ↓ 8.5 2.0 ↑ 0.7 -7.8 ↓ -3.6 -4.3 ↓ -0.1 3.5 ↑ -0.7 -0.6 ↓ 0.7 1.4 ↑
Barrel % 4.3 8.8 4.5 ↑ 4.4 -4.4 ↓ 3.9 -0.5 ↓ 5.0 1.1 ↑ 0.0 -5.0 ↓ 5.3 5.3 ↑ 3.3 -2.0 ↓ 6.8 3.5 ↑
Hard Hit % 39.8 41.2 1.4 ↑ 36.7 -4.5 ↓ 37.8 1.1 ↑ 40.4 2.6 ↑ 34.6 -5.8 ↓ 34.5 -0.1 ↓ 31.9 -2.6 ↓ 36.4 4.5 ↑
Sweet Spot % 31.3 34.2 2.9 ↑ 32.3 -1.9 ↓ 29.4 -2.9 ↓ 25.9 -3.5 ↓ 30.8 4.9 ↑