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Joe Kelly
P | B/T: R/R | 6' 1" 174LBS | Age: 33

Draft: 2009 | Rd: 3, #98, St. Louis Cardinals | UC Riverside
Poor Avg Great

Stats

W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2021 2 0 2.86 48 0 2 44.0 50 0.98
10 Seasons 50 29 3.83 365 80 5 730.2 619 1.36
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2021 48 2-0 2.86 44.0 50 0.98
10 Seasons 365 50-29 3.83 730.2 619 1.36

Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted Balls Barrels Barrel % Exit Velocity Max EV Launch Angle Sweet Spot % XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2015 27 2378 422 18 4.3 89.3 113.4 9 31.3 .268 .411 .335 .329 .368 39.8 18.7 8.3 4.82 4.74
2016 28 739 114 10 8.8 91.2 111.8 9.9 34.2 .262 .440 .356 .351 .421 41.2 25.5 12.8 5.17 5.54
2017 29 1025 158 7 4.4 89.1 113 6.5 32.3 .242 .356 .259 .305 .338 36.7 21.8 11.3 2.79 4.06
2018 30 1176 180 7 3.9 89.7 113.6 8.5 29.4 .235 .347 .297 .309 .346 37.8 23.9 11.2 4.39 4.09
2019 31 894 139 7 5 88.9 113.5 0.7 25.9 .208 .331 .306 .277 .332 40.4 27.4 9.7 4.56 3.40
2020 32 171 26 0 0 88.2 101.7 -3.6 30.8 .240 .303 .310 .320 .329 34.6 21.4 16.7 1.80 4.39
2021 33 712 113 6 5.3 85.5 110.1 -0.1 27.4 .208 .315 .242 .279 .336 34.5 27.5 8.2 2.86 3.27
7095 1152 55 4.8 89.1 113.6 6.5 30.4 .244 .373 .307 .313 .357 38.6 22.8 10.1
6.6 88.3 122.2 12 32.9 .243 .403 .317 .313 .363 35.4 22 8.4

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Kelly relies on 4 pitches.
Curveball
(43.1%) ,
Sinker
(33.8%) ,
Changeup
(16.2%) ,
4-Seam Fastball
(6.9%) ,


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Pitch Tracking

Year Pitch Type # # RHB # LHB % MPH PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR SO BBE BA XBA SLG XSLG WOBA XWOBA EV LA Spin Ext. Whiff% PutAway%
2021 Curveball 307 145 162 43.1 87.1 71 67 12 8 2 0 2 21 47 .179 .236 .299 .402 .220 .298 88.7 2 2890 5.8 32.6 27.3
2021 Sinker 241 164 77 33.8 97.7 62 48 8 5 3 0 0 8 41 .167 .239 .229 .280 .277 .336 83.9 -2 2070 6.1 14.1 17.8
2021 Changeup 115 37 78 16.2 86.9 38 36 6 2 2 1 1 15 21 .167 .131 .361 .230 .243 .184 78.3 -1 2001 6.0 26.8 20.3
2021 4-Seam Fastball 49 41 8 6.9 97.5 10 10 2 2 0 0 0 6 4 .200 .151 .200 .199 .176 .152 88.3 10 2128 6.0 50.0 35.3
2020 Curveball 108 55 53 63.2 87.1 26 22 6 3 3 0 0 8 15 .273 .214 .409 .256 .325 .274 89.4 -11 3055 6.0 36.2 25.8
2020 Sinker 39 33 6 22.8 96.8 8 8 2 2 0 0 0 1 7 .250 .213 .250 .275 .221 .214 84.8 3 2187 6.2 7.1 12.5
2020 4-Seam Fastball 24 21 3 14.0 97.3 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 .000 .438 .000 .616 .349 .577 89.8 13 2245 6.2 12.5 0.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel %
2015 46 20.1 27.5 6.4 32.2 38.9 28.9 0.7 36.3 22.3 29.6 5.5 4.3
2016 48.2 18.4 28.1 5.3 36 37.7 26.3 1.8 35.1 13.2 26.3 8.8 8.8
2017 51.3 19.6 25.9 3.2 28.5 38.6 32.9 3.2 42.4 19 26.6 4.4 4.4
2018 48.9 18.3 26.1 6.7 30.6 37.2 31.7 2.2 37.8 21.7 27.8 6.1 3.9
2019 62.6 11.5 22.3 3.6 32.4 43.2 24.5 1.4 54 9.4 21.6 6.5 5
2020 57.7 7.7 30.8 3.8 34.6 46.2 19.2 0 50 15.4 30.8 3.8 0
2021 58.4 12.4 21.2 8 35.4 45.1 19.5 11.5 46 13.3 18.6 5.3 5.3
50.9 17.5 26 5.6 32.2 39.8 28 2.5 40.6 18.2 26.6 5.8 4.8
45.1 22.5 25.4 7.1 36.6 37.8 25.5 3.7 33.2 24.4 24.4 5.7 6.6

Pitch Movement


How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2021 Changeup LAD R 115 86.9 30.4 -0.2 -1 17.7 3.1 21
2021 Curveball LAD R 304 87.1 45.9 2.1 5 8.5 0.9 12
2021 4-Seamer LAD R 49 97.5 17.7 -3.5 -24 11.1 2 22
2021 Sinker LAD R 241 97.7 18.6 -1.9 -9 15.8 -0.2 -1
2020 4-Seamer LAD R 24 97.3 16.3 -2.1 -15 10.6 1.6 18
2020 Curveball LAD R 108 87.1 46.4 2.8 6 9.9 1.5 18
2020 Sinker LAD R 39 96.8 20.2 -0.8 -4 15.4 -0.6 -4
2019 Curveball LAD R 322 87.2 50 4.4 10 10.5 2.4 30
2019 Changeup LAD R 111 87.6 29.3 -0.2 -1 17 2.7 19
2019 Sinker LAD R 201 98.3 19 -0.5 -3 15.3 -0.3 -2
2019 4-Seamer LAD R 247 97.5 14.8 -0.7 -5 9.5 0.9 11
2018 Slider BOS R 176 88 38.9 4.6 14 5.7 1.7 42
2018 4-Seamer BOS R 586 98.1 13.7 0.5 4 9.2 0.8 9
2018 Curveball BOS R 219 84.3 56.4 7.9 16 9.6 2 26
2018 Sinker BOS R 65 97.6 16.6 -2.6 -14 14.8 -0.2 -1
2018 Changeup BOS R 129 87.7 29 -1.4 -5 16.5 2.4 17
2017 Slider BOS R 157 89.6 32.8 2.6 9 4.6 1.9 69
2017 4-Seamer BOS R 331 99 10.6 1 8 9.7 0.8 9
2017 Sinker BOS R 315 99 14.3 -2.4 -14 14.2 -1.3 -8
2017 Curveball BOS R 187 83.8 52.4 4.3 9 5.9 -0.8 -11
2017 Changeup BOS R 31 87.5 28 -0.8 -3 16.4 2.5 18
2016 Sinker BOS R 154 96 16 -2.6 -14 15.7 0.3 2
2016 Curveball BOS R 65 82.7 53.6 6.9 15 8.2 1.3 19
2016 Changeup BOS R 43 85.9 24.7 -5.4 -18 15.9 2.1 16
2016 Slider BOS R 122 87.8 37.5 6.6 22 4.7 2.7 143
2016 4-Seamer BOS R 281 97.6 12.4 0.7 6 9.7 -0.3 -3
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2021 4-Seamer -4.2 -2 49 6.9 10 .2 .2 .18 50 60 35.3 .151 .199 .152 25
2021 Changeup 1.8 2 115 16.2 38 .167 .361 .292 26.8 39.5 20.3 .131 .23 .184 14.3
2021 Sinker -0.5 -1 241 33.8 62 .167 .229 .294 14.1 12.9 17.8 .239 .28 .336 34.1
2021 Curveball -3.1 -10 307 43.1 71 .179 .299 .235 32.6 29.6 27.3 .236 .402 .299 44.7
2020 Sinker -2 -1 39 22.8 8 .25 .25 .225 7.1 12.5 12.5 .213 .275 .214 0
2020 4-Seamer -1.8 0 24 14 8 0 0 .35 12.5 0 0 .438 .616 .578 50
2020 Curveball -0.6 -1 108 63.2 26 .273 .409 .329 36.2 30.8 25.8 .214 .256 .274 46.7
2019 Changeup 1.6 2 111 12.4 32 .241 .31 .284 27.1 37.5 17.1 .18 .252 .236 35.3
2019 Sinker 0.5 1 201 22.5 47 .368 .5 .44 20 12.8 13 .216 .314 .319 37.5
2019 4-Seamer -1.8 -5 247 27.6 69 .259 .431 .372 15.9 20.3 25.5 .263 .449 .365 50
2019 Curveball -0.5 -2 322 36 73 .137 .247 .197 40.5 41.1 34.5 .18 .29 .208 34.9
2018 Sinker -5.9 -4 65 5.5 17 .077 .077 .218 12.9 5.9 4.8 .345 .599 .473 41.7
2018 Slider 2.2 4 176 15 33 .233 .4 .335 35 24.2 15.1 .2 .291 .258 22.7
2018 Curveball -0.2 0 219 18.6 34 .233 .333 .259 39.1 35.3 24 .203 .324 .244 30
2018 Changeup -0.5 -1 129 11 41 .094 .188 .251 50 46.3 27.9 .055 .072 .202 14.3
2018 4-Seamer -0.3 -2 586 49.8 160 .281 .374 .34 16.6 17.5 15.6 .281 .403 .349 44.6
2017 Changeup -2 -1 31 3 14 .083 .083 .164 66.7 71.4 47.6 .061 .067 .148 0
2017 Curveball 2 4 187 18.2 30 .407 .593 .46 22.9 13.3 8.3 .309 .538 .389 34.8
2017 Slider -0.9 -1 157 15.3 35 .167 .2 .244 39.4 20 11.1 .207 .288 .277 29.2
2017 Sinker -3 -9 315 30.7 76 .171 .243 .212 18.4 19.7 13.3 .278 .417 .318 35.7
2017 4-Seamer -1.1 -4 331 32.3 82 .188 .261 .276 22.5 19.5 14 .226 .303 .302 43.4
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2020 Curveball 91 86.9 64 16.3 7:30 7:15 15
2020 4-Seam Fastball 23 97.2 91 16.2 1:30 1:30 0
2020 Sinker 35 96.7 92 18.1 1:30 2:15 -45
2021 Changeup 115 86.9 98 19.1 2:30 2:30 0
2021 Curveball 299 87.1 62 15.1 7:30 7:15 15
2021 4-Seam Fastball 49 97.5 94 15.6 1:30 1:45 -15
2021 Sinker 239 97.7 93 19 1:30 2:00 -30
! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2012 486 1809 0 -15 5 8 -1
2013 620 2298 -19 -14 4 12 -17
2014 412 1569 -8 -4 9 9 5
2015 587 2378 -1 -14 15 9 10
2016 199 792 -3 -5 4 5 1
2017 248 1069 -18 -7 7 5 -12
2018 329 1345 -12 -13 9 7 -9
2019 237 951 -2 -2 2 4 1
2020 58 234 -3 0 0 1 -3
2021 202 812 -5 -15 5 4 -11
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2015 2378 48.7 60.2 88.7 25.1 61.1 43.4 62.2 42.2 18.8 7.9 74.1
2016 739 47 59.7 82.6 27 52.8 43.3 51.6 42.4 26.8 5.4 72.5
2017 1025 50.8 67.8 78.7 26.2 65.9 42.9 63.9 47.3 24.7 7.3 72
2018 1176 49.6 64.8 79.1 24.5 61.4 41.4 57.5 44.5 25.6 8 80.9
2019 894 51.6 56.5 83.3 25.8 50.9 39.3 56.2 41.9 26.4 8.3 61.6
2020 171 47.4 58 89.4 24.4 36.4 39.8 42.9 40.4 27.5 7.6 61.5
2021 712 51.5 57.5 80.6 25.5 50 43.7 58.2 42 28.1 7.6 61.1
7095 49.6 61.2 83.3 25.5 58 42.4 58.9 43.2 23.8 7.6 71.6
48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.5 42.6 60.6 47 24.6 7.2 76

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV HardHit% K% BB% Whiff% xERA FB Velo FB Spin CB Spin
2015 16 13 25 44 12 38 70 17 4 37 33 18 16 91 23 94
2016 96 32 95
2017 57 52 76 85 28 84 78 9 17 52 12 54 57 100 50 96
2018 45 54 79 87 20 89 91 12 29 60 12 55 45 99 49 99
2019 84 83 91 89 68 92 86 42 17 75 25 58 84 99 22 99
2020
2021 97 17 93
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Expected Home Runs

Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2019 22.9 7 5.7 1 3 6 1 14.3
2020 0 0.7 -1 0 1 0
2021 22.7 4 4.2 0 1 2 0 0

Expected Home Runs by Park

Year HR
2019 7 7 8 6 8 5 6 7 4 6 6 5 3 4 5 7 3 6 5 9 3 5 4 5 6 8 6 5 6 4 8
2020 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2021 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 5 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 5 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 3 5 3 5 4 4
! Note: This tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. This accounts for different wall heights and distances, but does not attempt to adjust for environmental effects. For these purposes, the 2020 Blue Jays home field was still Rogers Centre, not Sahlen Field.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2015 2016 +/-   2017 +/-   2018 +/-   2019 +/-   2020 +/-   2021 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 96.1 97 0.9 99 2 98.1 -0.9 97.9 -0.2 96.9 -1 97.6 0.7
Offspeed Velocity 85.5 85.9 0.4 87.5 1.6 87.7 0.2 87.6 -0.1 0 0 86.9 0
Breaking Velocity 83.9 85.9 2 86.4 0.5 85.9 -0.5 87.2 1.3 87.1 -0.1 87.1 0
Exit Velocity 89.3 91.2 1.9 89.1 -2.1 89.7 0.6 88.9 -0.8 88.2 -0.7 85.5 -2.7
Launch Angle 9 9.9 0.9 6.5 -3.4 8.5 2 .7 -7.8 -3.6 -4.3 -.1 3.5
Barrel % 4.3 8.8 4.5 4.4 -4.4 3.9 -0.5 5 1.1 0 -5 5.3 5.3
Hard Hit % 39.8 41.2 1.4 36.7 -4.5 37.8 1.1 40.4 2.6 34.6 -5.8 34.5 -0.1
Sweet Spot % 31.3 34.2 2.9 32.3 -1.9 29.4 -2.9 25.9 -3.5 30.8 4.9 27.4 -3.4
xBA .268 .262 -0.006 .242 -0.02 .235 -0.007 .208 -0.027 .24 0.032 .208 -0.032
BA .276 .278 0.002 .202 -0.076 .234 0.032 .244 0.01 .235 -0.009 .174 -0.061
xwOBA .329 .351 0.022 .305 -0.046 .309 0.004 .277 -0.032 .32 0.043 .279 -0.041
wOBA .335 .356 0.021 .259 -0.097 .297 0.038 .306 0.009 .31 0.004 .242 -0.068
xSLG .411 .44 0.029 .356 -0.084 .347 -0.009 .331 -0.016 .303 -0.028 .315 0.012
SLG .428 .456 0.028 .279 -0.177 .332 0.053 .383 0.051 .324 -0.059 .286 -0.038
K% 18.7 25.5 6.8 21.8 -3.7 23.9 2.1 27.4 3.5 21.4 -6 27.5 6.1
BB% 8.3 12.8 4.5 11.3 -1.5 11.2 -0.1 9.7 -1.5 16.7 7 8.2 -8.5
Swing % 42.2 42.4 0.2 47.3 4.9 44.5 -2.8 41.9 -2.6 40.4 -1.5 42 1.6
Whiff% 18.8 26.8 8 24.7 -2.1 25.6 0.9 26.4 0.8 27.5 1.1 28.1 0.6
In Zone % 48.7 47 -1.7 50.8 3.8 49.6 -1.2 51.6 2 47.4 -4.2 51.5 4.1
Out of Zone % 51.3 53 1.7 49.2 -3.8 50.4 1.2 48.4 -2 52.6 4.2 48.5 -4.1
Out of Zone Swing % 25.1 27 1.9 26.2 -0.8 24.5 -1.7 25.8 1.3 24.4 -1.4 25.5 1.1
First Pitch Swing % 25.6 24.5 -1.1 29 4.5 28.4 -0.6 18.6 -9.8 14.3 -4.3 20.3 6
First Pitch Strike % 62.2 51.6 -10.6 63.9 12.3 57.5 -6.4 56.2 -1.3 42.9 -13.3 58.2 15.3
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Statcast Shift Statistics

vs RHHvs LHH
YearPAwOBAPAShifts%PAShifts%
2016 171 .375 110 0 0.0 61 20 32.8
2017 237 .259 144 0 0.0 93 20 21.5
2018 285 .297 159 1 0.6 126 51 40.5
2019 223 .307 128 18 14.1 95 53 55.8
2020 42 .310 25 0 0.0 17 10 58.8
2021 181 .242 100 17 17.0 81 46 56.8

Pitch Distribution