Among the top high school catchers, Jensen may be the best pure hitter but also raises the most questions as to whether he'll be able to stay behind the plate. He performed well throughout the prep showcase season and helped his cause defensively by dedicating himself to improving his conditioning. His profile resembles Kyle Schwarber's as an amateur, though Jensen is more athletic at the same stage of their careers.
Jensen doesn't have a conventional setup at the plate, sitting on his back leg more than usual, but he makes consistent hard contact from the left side. He does damage against left-handers and right-handers, fastballs and offspeed pitches, managing the strike zone well and utilizing the entire field. His strength stands out more than his bat speed but he has the potential for at least average power.
Jensen's solid arm definitely fits at catcher, but he'll have to continue to improve his receiving to stay there. The Louisiana State recruit has the desire and work ethic to do so, though some scouts wonder if he'd have more value maximizing his offensive production by playing a less taxing position. Though he's a below-average runner, that's better than most backstops, and he might be able to play third base or an outfield corner.
Staying local always makes for a good Draft story, but Kansas City native Carter Jensen is proving to be more than that in the years since the Royals took him in the third round in 2021. The catcher was young for both the Single-A and High-A stops in 2022 and 2023 respectively and repeated Quad Cities last season with impressive results (.271/.386/.435, 10 homers, 16 steals in 84 games). He was promoted to Double-A Northwest Arkansas in July, posted a 112 wRC+ over 170 plate appearances there and was rewarded with another challenge in the Arizona Fall League to round out his third full season.
Jensen finished with 18 homers in 125 games during the 2024 Minor League season -- a healthy jump from his totals of 11 in both 2022 and 2023 -- and four more across 12 Fall League games. A high-walk, solid-OBP performer earlier in his career, the left-handed slugger meaningfully worked on being less passive at the plate early in counts and attacking drivable pitches. That got his pop to play more and continued physical maturation has helped that further. He’s still only entering his age-21 season and could find a happy medium as a backstop who gets on base and provides value with his power too.
Jensen is a below-average runner (no surprise for his position) who used his baserunning knowledge to swipe bags in High-A but reeled that in at Double-A. Kansas City has managed his workload well over his three full seasons, enabling him to stay healthy but also pick up enough reps to become at least an average framer behind the dish. His above-average arm strength and improved actions give baserunners something to think about and round out a solid all-around profile.
A Royals fan and Kansas City native, Jensen blew scouts away with his power at a pre-Draft workout at Kauffman Stadium, and the Royals took the Louisiana State commit in the third round of the 2021 Draft and signed him to an over-slot $1.1 million signing bonus. Playing in his age-19 season, Jensen spent 2023 in High-A Quad Cities and got better throughout the season. In 116 games, he slashed .211/.356/.363 with 11 home runs, an 18.5 percent walk rate and a 24.1 percent strikeout rate.
Jensen has special raw power to the middle of the field, but he hasn’t tapped into it results-wise as much as one might have expected in the lower levels of the Minors. He does have an incredible eye, too, having drawn 175 walks in his first two pro seasons, but he also gets passive at times and might be unintentionally sacrificing power for patience. Jensen has smooth swing mechanics from the left side, and his offensive tools project a high on-base hitter with good power -- if he can start swinging at drivable pitches and not laying off them. Defensively, he has steadily improved, and that keeps convincing scouts he can stick behind the plate. Jensen has an above-average arm, his agility was much improved last year and he manages a staff well.
Pitchers are only going to get more advanced as Jensen climbs the Minors. He’s still young, but he’ll have to show his bat can improve -- like his catching has -- for him to fill out his projection as an everyday catcher. He repeated High-A with positive results to begin his age-20 season and earned a promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas in July.
The Royals were able to see Jensen up close and often ahead of the 2021 Draft because he played in their backyard at Park Hill High School in Kansas City. Officials were blown away by his power in their pre-Draft workout, leading them to take Jensen in the third round and sign him away from his LSU commitment. The Royals challenged him right away in Low-A Columbia in ‘22, and they again came away impressed. Jensen, who didn’t turn 19 until halfway through the season, slashed .226/.363/.382 with 11 homers.
Jensen’s performance spiked in the second half of ‘22, and a lot of it had to do with his eye: He walked 51 times and struck out just 38 times in 52 games. Jensen has a ton of raw power, so if he can start to drive the ball more -- he hit just .227 -- and continue the impressive plate discipline, he’ll be a well-rounded hitter. That could translate to a high-OBP, 25-homer hitter. Jensen has a compact swing in an upright stance and utilizes his lower half well to generate hard contact. What blew evaluators away the most about Jensen, though, was his defense. Many thought he would not stay at the position, but Jensen has improved his receiving skills and conditioning skills considerably.
Jensen has always had an above-average arm, but his athleticism and strong hands will allow him to stay behind the plate if he continues his receiving improvement. The Royals will continue to develop him there while working with him on making him a well-rounded and elite offensive threat.
Arguably the best pure hitter in the 2021 Draft, Jensen signed with his hometown team for $1.1 million after the Royals selected him with their third-round pick. The organization was blown away by his power in their pre-draft workout held at Kauffman Stadium, and although there are questions as to whether he’ll stay behind the plate, he helped his cause by performing well throughout the prep showcase season. Jensen played 19 games for the Royals’ rookie team in Arizona over the summer, posting a .792 OPS with one home run.
Some say Jensen has the most left-handed power in the Kansas City system, and he is fearless in the batter’s box, whether it’s batting practice, live at-bats or during game action. With a simple and short swing, he’s always in attack mode and makes consistent hard contact against lefties and righties, utilizing the entire field. He knows how to work his lower half, although he’s aggressive and can drift at times, which the Royals are working on with him. Jensen’s solid arm fits at catcher, but he’ll have to improve his receiving skills to stay there. He’s young, and he’s learning how to catch elite stuff every day while managing his catching and hitting workload.
Some scouts wonder if Jensen would maximize his offensive production by playing a less taxing position, and he could potentially play the infield or outfield corners. But he has the work ethic and desire to stay at catcher, and that’s where the Royals intend to develop him for now.
Among the top high school catchers in the 2021 Draft, Jensen may have been the best pure hitter but also raised the most questions as to whether he'll be able to stay behind the plate. He performed well throughout the prep showcase season and helped his cause defensively by dedicating himself to improving his conditioning. His profile resembles Kyle Schwarber's as an amateur, though Jensen is more athletic at the same stage of their careers. Kansas City selected Jensen with its third-round pick and went above slot to sign him for $1.1 million.
Jensen doesn't have a conventional setup at the plate, sitting on his back leg more than usual, but he makes consistent hard contact from the left side. He does damage against left-handers and right-handers, fastballs and offspeed pitches, managing the strike zone well and utilizing the entire field. His strength stands out more than his bat speed, but he has the potential for at least average power.
Jensen's solid arm definitely fits at catcher, but he'll have to continue to improve his receiving to stay there. The Missouri native has the desire and work ethic to do so, though some scouts wonder if he'd have more value maximizing his offensive production by playing a less taxing position. Though he's a below-average runner, that's better than most backstops, and he might be able to play third base or an outfield corner if need be someday.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this player's batted balls would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Note: xHR tells how many of this player's batted balls would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about how positioning is defined here
