Gatorade's Mississippi high school player of the year as a junior last spring after moving from Arizona, Keith is one of the top two-way talents in the 2020 Draft. Scouts are divided as to whether he's a better prospect as a pitcher or an infielder, though they believe he prefers to play every day. A sore arm prevented him from pitching in midsummer showcase events but he did return to the mound and impressed in the fall.
Keith makes consistent hard contact from the left side of the plate and is beginning to tap into his solid raw power, the product of bat speed and leverage. Projected strength gains should add more pop but also may slow him down enough to necessitate a move from shortstop in high school to third base in pro ball. The Arizona State recruit is an average runner whose plus arm will play on the left side of the infield.
As a right-handed pitcher, Keith operates with an 89-93 mph fastball and uses his size and high three-quarters delivery to create downhill plane. His upper-70s curveball features good depth, while his changeup is more of a work in progress. His arm works well and there's plenty of projection remaining in his athletic 6-foot-3 frame.
The Tigers selected Keith in the fifth round of the shortened 2020 Draft and talked him out of an Arizona State commitment with an above-slot $500,000 signing bonus. Injuries -- including to his right shoulder in 2022 -- limited him to only 113 games over his first two full seasons, though he did stand out in the Arizona Fall League in '22. Finally healthy for much of 2023, Keith broke out with a .306/.380/.552 line and 27 homers in 126 games between Double-A and Triple-A. His 68 extra-base hits and 280 total bases ranked third and fifth among Minor Leaguers, respectively. In January, the Tigers rewarded him with a six-year, $28,642,500 contract extension with club options through 2032.
Using a quick and short left-handed swing, the Mississippi native does a nice job of marrying quality contact rates with noticeable impact at the dish. He elevates well and rarely expands the zone, leading to the high slugging percentages and extra-base-hit rates. With Triple-A Toledo, he maxed out with an exit velocity of 110.1 mph and slugged a 473-foot homer (per Statcast) that ranked as the fifth-longest in the International League last season. Higher EVs and more tape-measure shots should be in his future as he grows more comfortable getting through long seasons.
The Tigers moved Keith -- a below-average runner with a stocky frame -- from third base to second on a near-full-time basis by mid-August last season out of the belief his reaction times and throwing motion work better at the keystone. He’d be a bat-first player at either place, but there is a clear lane for Keith to seize a spot in the Majors and join Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene as homegrown premier talents in Detroit.
Keith looked on his way to Arizona State before Detroit selected him in the fifth round of the shortened 2020 Draft and signed him for above slot at $500,000. The left-handed slugger got hot late in his first full season and seemed to be carrying that performance into 2022, when he hit .301/.370/.544 with 26 extra-base hits in 48 games with High-A West Michigan. A June 9 shoulder injury, suffered when he dove back to the bag on a pickoff attempt, knocked Keith out for the remainder of the regular season, but he made up for the lost time by hitting .344/.463/.541 with a 16/16 K/BB ratio over 19 Arizona Fall League contests.
The Mississippi native has added even more size to his 6-foot-3 frame since his Draft days, and that’s starting to translate into more power, as he proved in the AFL, where he had multiple batted balls with a 105-plus mph exit velocity (as measured by Statcast). His quick left-handed swing should help him hit for healthy averages too, and it was a promising sign for his developing approach when his K rate dropped to 19.4 percent in the Midwest League last season.
Keith has seen some time at second base in the Minors, but a lack of footspeed, which may only get worse as he ages, should keep him at third. The plus arm that had him throwing 89-93 mph off the mound in high school is best utilized at the hot corner anyways. Keith has managed only 113 Minor League games over his first two seasons, so getting him those defensive reps -- and proving how well his bat can play over the long term -- should go a long way in 2023.
The Tigers wooed Keith away from an Arizona State commitment with a fifth-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft and a $500,000 bonus, a nifty pickup amidst a pandemic-shortened amateur season and Draft. His rust showed with a slow start last summer at Low-A Lakeland, but once he caught up, he tore up the Florida State League with a .356 average in July (compared to .225 in June). His success earned him a late August promotion to High-A West Michigan, a week and a half after his 20th birthday.
Keith is athletic for his big frame. He was a two-way talent in high school and drew interest from some clubs as a pitcher. His size hasn’t yet translated into power, but he has a nice line-drive approach and advanced plate discipline for his age thanks in part to a quick, efficient left-handed swing that enables him to wait to commit. His .320 average at Lakeland included a .437 on-base percentage; followed by eight walks in 18 games at West Michigan. He doesn’t chase breaking balls out of the zone often, though he can be challenged by high velocity in the strike zone. He has quick reactions and a strong arm, but will need to continue working to stick at third.
Though Keith’s career is off to a nice start at a good level, the Tigers can afford to be patient and let him find his identity as a hitter. He’s in a system deep in third basemen, yet the Tigers will find a place for him if he hits.
Not only did the Tigers select two Arizona State players in the 2020 Draft, they wooed a recruit away from the Sun Devils when they selected Keith in the fifth round and signed him for a $500,000 bonus. The Gatorade 2019 Mississippi high school player of the year was a two-way talent, with some scouts valuing him more as a pitcher, but the Tigers quickly committed him to third base, a natural move from his high-school spot at shortstop given his body frame.
Keith has a line-drive, left-handed swing with bat speed but is expected to develop power as he matures. Some evaluators wonder whether that could come at the cost of more strikeouts. His potential maturation mirrors that of Nick Castellanos, who made a similar transition in the Tigers system after he was a first-round pick as a high-school shortstop in 2010. Keith’s strong pitching arm serves him well in the field, complementing his quick reactions for plus potential defensively. If the hot corner doesn’t work out, his arm could play well in an outfield corner.
The Tigers system is deep in third basemen, including several recent Draft picks out of college, but Keith presents a higher upside, especially on offense. Detroit can afford to be patient with him as he just entered his 20s in August.
Gatorade's 2019 Mississippi high school player of the year after moving from Arizona, Keith was one of the better two-way talents in the 2020 Draft. Scouts were divided as to whether he's a better prospect as an infielder or a pitcher, though the belief is that he prefers to play every day. The Tigers announced him as a third baseman when they drafted him in the fifth round and signed him for $500,000.
Keith has the potential to hit for average and power. His left-handed swing is geared more for line drives at this point and enables him to make consistent contact to all speeds. With his bat speed and the leverage in his 6-foot-2 frame, he could develop 20-homer pop as he gets stronger and launches more balls.
Though Keith is athletic, his average speed dictated a move from shortstop in high school to the hot corner in pro ball. His plus arm is an asset anywhere in the infield and generated 89-93 mph fastballs and upper-70s curveballs with promising depth when he took the mound. Of the 20 teams who talked with him before the Draft, he said 15 explored the idea of developing him as a two-way player.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year
HR
2024
13
14
14
15
9
17
14
16
12
8
8
13
17
14
15
12
11
13
14
17
14
14
19
15
12
11
8
8
18
14
12
Player
13
14
14
15
9
17
14
16
12
8
8
13
17
14
15
12
11
13
14
17
14
14
19
15
12
11
8
8
18
14
12
Note: xHR tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about how positioning is defined here
