Scouting Report

Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Signed out of Mexico, Lizarraga joined the Padres for $1 million on March 1, 2021, and he moved up the chain pretty aggressively from there, playing his whole age-18 season with Single-A Lake Elsinore in '22 and then moving up to High-A Fort Wayne last year. The right-hander struggled with his mechanics early on in 2023 and finished with a 4.09 ERA and only 78 strikeouts in 94 2/3 innings with the TinCaps. However, he provided over his final four starts, in which he posted a 1.17 ERA with 26 K’s and only five walks in 23 frames.

Lizarraga can run it up to 94-95 mph occasionally, but he’s much more typically throwing his fastball in the low-90s. He really needs to climb the ladder with the pitch too because when his command drifts lower, Midwest League batters had little issue putting it into play. Optimistic evaluators believe the 6-foot-3 hurler can still add some strength and a few ticks to that heater as he gets into his 20s. Lizarraga will spin both an mid-70s curveball and upper-79s slider that can play off the high heat well at the best of times, and his changeup can look firm but helps keep lefties at bay.

When locked in, the righty doesn’t need a ton of effort to be effective, and considering how young he’s been for every level, he’s kept the walks in check through the first three years of his career. But simply put, he needs to start missing bats with more regularity to hold onto the promise he showed earlier on, making 2024 a big year for him.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

January 15 is now the big signing day at the start of the international window, but the Padres managed to add Lizarraga to its class when they signed him for a $1 million bonus on March 1, 2021. The Mexico native immediately moved stateside for 11 starts in the Arizona Complex League, where he fanned 35 in 30 innings, and took things to another level (literally and figuratively) at Single-A Lake Elsinore in 2022, finishing with a 3.43 ERA and 95 K’s. His 94 1/3 frames with the Storm were the most among any 18-year-old Minor Leaguer last season.

The fact that Lizarraga’s stuff held up over such a comparatively long season speaks well to his future. His low-90s fastball already has the makings of an above-average pitch and plays well up in the zone, and he grew even stronger this offseason as he started to fill out the 6-foot-3 frame that Padres officials always said pointed to more velo coming. His mid-80s changeup has become arguably his best present pitch with good last-second drop. It helped the righty hold left-handed hitters to just a .611 OPS in 2022, compared to a .756 OPS by batters on the other side. That reverse split might also be a result of a curveball that lacks the consistency of the other two options.

Lizarraga has long limbs that can make his pitches deceptive to hitters, but, notably, his strike-throwing improved from year one to two in the Minors. Only 19 for the duration of the 2023 season, the right-hander has seen his K rate crater at High-A Fort Wayne, but there's still enough to dream on moving forward.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 45 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Signed for a $1 million bonus on March 1, 2021, Lizarraga was certainly one of the more intriguing names in the Padres' 2020-21 international class. Regarded as the top pitching prospect from Mexico, the 18-year-old features an exciting three-pitch mix and struck out 35 over 30 innings in Rookie ball during his brief professional debut.

Lizarraga’s fastball sits in the low-90s, but Padres officials believe his velocity will tick up as he adds strength to his 6-foot-3, 180-pound frame. The right-hander also shows some feel to spin his upper-70s curveball, though the pitch needs more refinement to reach its ceiling. He rounds out his arsenal with a changeup that features downward action and shows flashes of becoming a real weapon in the future.

Confident from competing against older competition in Mexico, Lizarraga shows good poise on the mound. His natural athleticism is apparent in his smooth delivery, which allows him to command his pitches and throw plenty of strikes. Referred to by some as a “projection dream”, it’s easy to see a high ceiling as a starter for Lizarraga. In order to get there, he’ll need to add some strength and continue to improve both his off-speed offerings.

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

After landing a few prospects when the international market opened, the Padres were thrilled to add Lizarraga on a $1 million signing bonus in late February to put a cap on what they feel was a strong 2020-21 international class. Regarded by many as the top pitching prospect out of Mexico, Lizarraga features an intriguing blend of athleticism and three pitches.

Lizarraga’s fastball currently sits at 89-92 mph with solid life, and as he grows into his lean frame – he enters his debut season at 6-foot-4 and just 185 pounds – the Padres believe that fastball could reach the mid- to high-90s. To go along with the heater, Lizarraga has feel for a changeup that projects as at least average, with fade and drop. His current go-to secondary weapon is a curveball that bites hard.

Lizarraga’s delivery is smooth and repeatable, and his raw athleticism is readily apparent. Combine that with a three-pitch mix, and it seems fairly clear that he’s destined for a starter’s role in the long-term. First, however, Lizarraga needs to bulk up a bit to get the most out of his fastball, while continuing to progress in developing his two offspeed weapons.

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Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Overall: 55

The best pitching prospect out of Mexico in this year’s class, Lizarraga’s tall and lean body screams starting pitcher potential.

At 6-foot-3, 180 pounds, Lizarraga in some ways resembles a younger version of Padres pitcher Cal Quantrill. He projects to have a body similar to Rockies pitcher Jeff Hoffman.

The right-handed pitcher also shows the abilities to back up the look. His fastball hovers in the 89 to 92 mph range now and projects to be a plus pitch in the future. His repertoire also features an overhand curveball in the 74 to 77 mph range and a workable changeup with some late fade.

A strike-thrower, Lizarraga shows good command and an aggressive approach on the mound. He has been praised for his high baseball IQ, mound presence and makeup. He displays the confidence that comes with competing against older competition in Mexico.

Lizarraga trains with former Major League pitcher Jorge Campillo and the staff at Academia de Beisbol Pacifico in Mazatlán, Mexico. The academy is affiliated with the Mexican League’s Leones de Yucatan, which has Lizarraga on its reserve list and own his rights in the event he chooses to play in the Liga Mexicana de Beisbol (LMB) or pursue a career with a Major League Baseball team. The Padres are the favorite to sign him.

Awards

TEX Pitcher of the Week

Week	Team
07/28/2024

MID Pitcher of the Month

Month	Team
09/2023

MID Pitcher of the Week

Week	Team
09/03/2023
08/20/2023

MID Pitcher of the Year

Year	Team
2023

MiLB.com Organization All-Star

Year	Team
2022

Transactions

Team	Date	Transaction
	09/24/2024	San Antonio Missions activated RHP Victor Lizarraga from the 7-day injured list.
	09/03/2024	San Antonio Missions placed RHP Victor Lizarraga on the 7-day injured list.
	04/02/2024	RHP Victor Lizarraga assigned to San Antonio Missions.
	08/04/2023	Fort Wayne TinCaps activated RHP Victor Lizarraga from the 7-day injured list.
	07/27/2023	Fort Wayne TinCaps placed RHP Victor Lizarraga on the 7-day injured list.
	03/28/2023	RHP Victor Lizarraga assigned to Fort Wayne TinCaps from Lake Elsinore Storm.
	04/07/2022	RHP Victor Lizarraga assigned to Lake Elsinore Storm from ACL Padres.
	06/28/2021	RHP Victor Lizarraga assigned to ACL Padres from DSL Padres.
	03/01/2021	RHP Victor Lizarraga assigned to DSL Padres.
	03/01/2021	San Diego Padres signed free agent RHP Victor Lizarraga to a minor league contract.
	04/27/2020	Leones de Yucatan signed free agent RHP Victor Lizarraga.