Justin Steele
P | Bats/Throws: L/L | 6' 2" 205LBS | Age: 29
Draft: 2014 | Rd: 5, #139, Chicago Cubs | George County (MS) HS
W L ERA G GS SV IP SO WHIP
2022 4 7 3.18 24 24 0 119 126 1.35
2023 16 5 3.06 30 30 0 173.1 176 1.17
2024 5 5 3.03 23 23 0 130.2 132 1.10
4 Seasons 29 21 3.23 97 86 0 480 493 1.22
G W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
2022 24 4-7 3.18 119 126 1.35
2023 30 16-5 3.06 173.1 176 1.17
2024 23 5-5 3.03 130.2 132 1.10
4 Seasons 97 29-21 3.23 480 493 1.22
MLB Percentile Rankings
Pitch Distribution
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Statcast Statistics

Season Age Pitches Batted
Balls		 Barrels Barrel % Barrel/PA Exit
Velocity		 Max EV Launch
Angle		 LA Sweet-
Spot %		 XBA XSLG WOBA XWOBA XWOBACON HardHit% K% BB% ERA xERA
2021 25 964 157 9 5.7 3.6 87.9 112.1 8.3 29.3 .226 .369 .332 .308 .350 35.0 23.8 10.9 4.26 4.01
2022 26 2032 332 13 3.9 2.5 87.1 112.1 7.5 31.0 .237 .336 .296 .295 .344 33.7 24.6 9.8 3.18 3.59
2023 27 2678 497 27 5.4 3.8 87.8 111.1 9.3 33.4 .250 .365 .291 .290 .358 36.6 24.6 5.0 3.06 3.50
2024 28 1984 366 15 4.1 2.8 87.0 114.1 12.4 30.9 .216 .312 .269 .263 .310 33.3 24.5 6.9 3.03 2.80
Player 7658 1352 64 4.7 3.2 87.4 114.1 9.6 31.7 .235 .344 .291 .286 .341 34.8 24.5 7.4
MLB 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.5 22.2 8.4
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Statcast Pitch Arsenal

Steele relies on 5 pitches.
Four Seamer
(59.8%) ,
Slider
(29.8%) ,
Sinker
(5.2%) ,
Changeup
(3.1%) ,
Curveball
(2.2%) ,


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Pitch Tracking



Batted Ball Profile

Season GB % FB % LD % PU % Pull % Straight % Oppo % Weak % Topped % Under % Flare/Burner % Solid % Barrel % Barrel/PA
2021 52.2 23.6 19.7 4.5 40.1 35.7 24.2 5.1 41.4 22.3 21.0 4.5 5.7 3.6
2022 51.8 20.5 24.1 3.6 38.0 38.3 23.8 4.8 36.1 20.8 28.6 4.8 3.9 2.5
2023 50.3 19.5 24.1 6.0 41.4 34.2 24.3 5.2 36.6 20.5 28.0 4.2 5.4 3.8
2024 45.4 23.2 23.0 8.5 37.4 34.2 28.4 6.6 31.7 28.7 24.0 4.9 4.1 2.8
Player 49.6 21.2 23.3 5.9 39.3 35.4 25.3 5.5 35.7 23.0 26.3 4.6 4.7 3.2
MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.7 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Pitch Movement

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How this works: Every pitch is affected by the forces of gravity, which means that every pitch drops on its way from the mound to the plate. These numbers are reported with gravity, which makes them larger and different than other pitch movement numbers you may have seen. Since gravity requires time, and slower pitches aren’t ‘better’ just because they have more time to move, the movement of a pitch is compared to ‘average’ movement by comparing it to other MLB pitch types within +/- 2 MPH and from within +/- 0.5 feet of extension and release.
Vertical Movement (inches) Horizontal Movement (inches)
Year Pitch Team Hand # MPH Inches of Drop vs Avg % vs Avg Inches of Break vs Avg % Break vs Avg
2024 Curveball CHC L 43 79.9 51.1 -1.8 -3 10.8 2.7 33
2024 Changeup CHC L 61 86.4 28.6 -1.9 -6 12.1 -1.7 -12
2024 4-Seam Fastball CHC L 1,186 91.6 19.2 -3.2 -20 0.2 -6.5 -97
2024 Slider CHC L 591 83.3 38.7 0.3 1 12.4 6.3 103
2024 Sinker CHC L 103 91.7 22.8 -0.6 -2 12.0 -2.4 -17
2023 Curveball CHC L 17 80.7 52.4 0.2 0 10.7 3.1 41
2023 Changeup CHC L 26 87.5 28.4 -1.3 -4 10.8 -3.5 -24
2023 Slider CHC L 887 83.2 39.9 1.1 3 14.0 8.0 131
2023 Sinker CHC L 46 92.2 20.9 -1.3 -6 8.2 -6.3 -44
2023 4-Seam Fastball CHC L 1,613 91.8 21.5 -5.3 -33 1.3 -7.6 -121
2022 Curveball CHC L 53 78.4 53.0 -2.8 -5 11.9 3.6 43
2022 4-Seam Fastball CHC L 1,147 92.2 19.4 -3.9 -25 1.6 -8.2 -124
2022 Changeup CHC L 42 87.8 24.2 -4.6 -16 10.8 -3.2 -23
2022 Slider CHC L 632 82.0 43.3 3.1 8 14.0 6.9 96
2022 Sinker CHC L 158 91.7 20.3 -1.7 -8 9.2 -4.9 -35
2021 Slider CHC L 159 83.0 42.5 3.8 10 12.7 7.0 121
2021 4-Seam Fastball CHC L 438 93.2 16.0 -0.9 -6 2.1 -5.1 -71
2021 Curveball CHC L 150 79.1 52.8 -1.5 -3 12.1 3.8 45
2021 Sinker CHC L 197 92.9 20.2 -1.4 -6 11.8 -2.9 -20
2021 Changeup CHC L 20 87.5 25.3 -3.7 -13 10.5 -3.5 -25
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
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Run Values by Pitch Type

Year Pitch Type Team RV/100 Run Value Pitches % PA BA SLG wOBA Whiff% K% PutAway % xBA xSLG xwOBA Hard Hit %
2024 4-Seam Fastball 0.3 3 1,186 59.8 317 .259 .404 .342 22.2 21.5 24.5 .238 .350 .297 37.8
2024 Slider 0.7 4 591 29.8 173 .154 .235 .197 28.5 32.4 21.6 .187 .271 .223 27.3
2024 Sinker 3.1 3 103 5.2 25 .227 .273 .250 17.6 16.0 36.4 .245 .272 .263 36.8
2024 Changeup -1.8 -1 61 3.1 17 .235 .235 .212 15.4 5.9 8.3 .180 .241 .182 18.8
2024 Curveball 2.1 1 43 2.2 7 .000 .000 .000 20.0 42.9 13.0 .043 .048 .040 0.0
2023 4-Seam Fastball 0.9 15 1,676 62.6 429 .275 .393 .330 20.3 19.1 19.9 .280 .406 .327 36.1
2023 Slider 0.3 2 909 33.9 263 .217 .346 .269 31.1 33.8 20.7 .203 .309 .236 37.3
2023 Sinker 1.4 1 48 1.8 13 .250 .333 .288 16.7 15.4 18.2 .322 .374 .332 40.0
2023 Changeup -0.4 0 28 1.0 5 .400 .400 .360 10.0 0.0 0.0 .164 .181 .149 20.0
2023 Curveball 2.6 0 17 0.6 5 .000 .000 .000 33.3 40.0 15.4 .243 .275 .226 66.7
2022 4-Seam Fastball -0.3 -4 1,147 56.4 274 .312 .407 .389 20.3 16.4 17.0 .274 .361 .339 33.5
2022 Slider 1.4 9 632 31.1 172 .138 .219 .183 32.1 42.4 24.0 .176 .264 .223 30.3
2022 Sinker -0.7 -1 158 7.8 52 .327 .490 .380 16.5 7.7 26.7 .286 .495 .356 42.2
2022 Curveball 0.5 0 53 2.6 7 .000 .000 .129 45.5 57.1 33.3 .100 .146 .105 33.3
2022 Changeup 0.7 0 42 2.1 7 .143 .143 .129 20.0 0.0 0.0 .179 .237 .180 28.6
2021 4-Seam Fastball 0.4 2 438 45.4 122 .227 .443 .381 29.6 23.8 25.9 .198 .310 .314 20.3
2021 Sinker -2.1 -4 197 20.4 47 .304 .478 .364 18.7 8.5 16.0 .303 .432 .327 50.0
2021 Slider 0.2 0 159 16.5 38 .182 .394 .301 29.7 28.9 13.3 .233 .424 .332 45.5
2021 Curveball 1.8 3 150 15.6 30 .200 .367 .240 34.0 46.7 35.9 .177 .321 .210 50.0
2021 Changeup 1.6 0 20 2.1 9 .222 .556 .322 18.2 11.1 50.0 .278 .635 .382 25.0
! Note: Years are in reverse order.
! Note: To better align with other values, positive numbers (red) are good, and negative numbers (blue) are poor.
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Spin Direction

Year Pitch Type Pitches MPH Active Spin % Total Movement (In.) Spin-Based Observed Deviation
2024 Changeup 60 86.4 79 14.4 11:00 10:00 60
2024 Curveball 43 79.9 71 15.6 4:30 4:30 0
2024 4-Seam Fastball 1,183 91.6 65 12.5 11:30 12:00 -30
2024 Sinker 102 91.7 73 15.4 11:15 10:15 60
2024 Slider 589 83.3 46 13.3 4:00 3:15 45
2023 Changeup 26 87.5 78 13.0 11:15 10:00 75
2023 Curveball 17 80.7 76 17.2 4:30 4:45 -15
2023 4-Seam Fastball 1,602 91.8 59 10.2 11:30 12:15 -45
2023 Sinker 44 92.2 65 13.7 11:30 10:45 45
2023 Slider 877 83.2 51 15.1 4:00 3:15 45
2022 Changeup 40 87.7 88 15.5 11:00 10:15 45
2022 Curveball 53 78.4 69 16.6 4:45 4:15 30
2022 4-Seam Fastball 1,135 92.2 60 12.1 11:30 12:15 -45
2022 Sinker 152 91.7 65 15.2 11:30 10:45 45
2022 Slider 620 82.0 55 15.6 4:15 3:30 45
2021 Changeup 20 87.5 89 14.5 11:00 10:15 45
2021 Curveball 146 79.1 76 17.2 4:45 4:30 15
2021 4-Seam Fastball 435 93.1 71 15.0 11:15 11:45 -30
2021 Sinker 189 92.9 72 16.4 11:15 10:15 60
2021 Slider 156 83.0 55 14.3 4:00 3:45 15
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! Note: This table is showing data from the PITCHER perspective.
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Swing/Take

Runs
Year Team PA Pitches Heart Shadow Chase Waste All
2021 246 964 4 11 -8 -6 1
2022 512 2,032 11 10 -11 -6 4
2023 715 2,678 11 15 1 -8 19
2024 539 1,984 11 14 -11 -4 10
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Plate Discipline

Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Strike % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing %
2021 964 49.2 63.1 79.9 26.3 55.0 40.9 57.7 44.4 27.6 8.2 70.9
2022 2,032 51.6 66.9 83.3 26.3 55.2 41.8 59.8 47.3 24.0 7.6 81.8
2023 2,678 53.2 71.5 84.2 31.9 55.1 43.0 65.5 52.9 23.8 8.1 80.7
2024 1,984 57.3 68.0 82.3 28.3 53.8 44.4 68.3 51.1 23.7 10.7 78.8
Player 7,658 53.3 68.4 83.0 28.7 54.8 42.8 63.8 49.9 24.3 8.7 79.2
MLB 48.7 67.0 82.0 28.5 57.8 42.6 61.0 47.2 24.9 7.3 76.3
! Note: All figures in this table cover the period 2015-present.

Percentile Rankings

Year xwOBA /
xERA 		xBA xSLG xISO xOBP Brl Brl% EV Hard
Hit% 		K% BB% Whiff% Chase
Rate 		FB
Velo 		FB
Spin 		CB
Spin 		Extension
2021 55 67 65 66 33 87 82 71 78 52 19 63 32 42 94 69 55
2022 61 51 80 91 36 62 95 80 82 64 24 35 15 22 96 57 45
2023 78 40 74 86 76 32 85 75 67 58 93 33 82 18 86 33
2024 92 83 93 96 89 50 95 89 88 63 67 36 47 16 87 37
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Expected Home Runs

Adjusted
Year Team Avg HR Trot Actual HR xHR HR-xHR Doubters Mostly Gone No Doubters No Doubter %
2021 23.7 12 9.1 3 3 7 4 33.3
2022 23.9 8 8.0 0 3 6 4 50.0
2023 22.5 14 13.3 1 3 12 6 42.9
2024 23.3 11 11.6 -1 0 13 2 18.2
Player 23.3 45 42.1 3 9 38 16 35.6
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Expected Home Runs by Park

Adjusted
Year HR
2021 12 8 7 9 10 10 10 10 8 6 9 11 9 7 10 10 9 9 8 10 8 11 12 11 9 7 10 11 9 9 7
2022 8 9 7 8 8 9 10 7 5 6 7 9 10 8 7 10 10 8 7 6 9 8 10 8 8 7 7 8 9 8 7
2023 14 10 11 14 11 12 15 10 14 11 11 16 12 13 15 15 13 11 14 19 12 14 20 16 12 12 15 14 14 13 11
2024 11 9 11 14 11 12 14 12 12 8 12 13 9 11 11 12 11 9 13 15 13 9 15 13 11 10 12 12 12 13 10
Player 45 36 36 45 40 43 49 39 39 31 39 49 40 39 43 47 43 37 42 50 42 42 57 48 40 36 44 45 44 43 35
Note: xHR tells how many of this pitcher's home runs allowed would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
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Year to Year Changes

Metric 2021 2022 +/-   2023 +/-   2024 +/-  
Fastball Velocity 93.1 92.1 -1.0 ↓ 91.8 -0.3 ↓ 91.6 -0.2 ↓
Offspeed Velocity 87.5 87.8 0.3 ↑ 87.5 -0.3 ↓ 86.4 -1.1 ↓
Breaking Velocity 81.1 81.8 0.7 ↑ 83.2 1.4 ↑ 83.1 -0.1 ↓
Exit Velocity 87.9 87.1 -0.8 ↓ 87.8 0.7 ↑ 87.0 -0.8 ↓
Launch Angle 8.3 7.5 -0.8 ↓ 9.3 1.8 ↑ 12.4 3.1 ↑
Barrel % 5.7 3.9 -1.8 ↓ 5.4 1.5 ↑ 4.1 -1.3 ↓
Hard Hit % 35.0 33.7 -1.3 ↓ 36.6 2.9 ↑ 33.3 -3.3 ↓
LA Sweet-Spot % 29.3 31.0 1.7 ↑ 33.4 2.4 ↑ 30.9 -2.5 ↓
xBA .226 .237 0.011 ↑ .250 0.013 ↑ .216 -0.034 ↓
BA .233 .244 0.011 ↑ .251 0.007 ↑ .218 -0.033 ↓
xwOBA .308 .295 -0.013 ↓ .290 -0.005 ↓ .263 -0.027 ↓
wOBA .332 .296 -0.036 ↓ .291 -0.005 ↓ .269 -0.022 ↓
xSLG .369 .336 -0.033 ↓ .365 0.029 ↑ .312 -0.053 ↓
SLG .437 .339 -0.098 ↓ .371 0.032 ↑ .331 -0.040 ↓
K% 23.8 24.6 0.8 ↑ 24.6 0.0 24.5 -0.1 ↓
BB% 10.9 9.8 -1.1 ↓ 5.0 -4.8 ↓ 6.9 1.9 ↑
Swing % 44.4 47.3 2.9 ↑ 52.9 5.6 ↑ 51.1 -1.8 ↓
Whiff% 27.6 24.0 -3.6 ↓ 23.8 -0.2 ↓ 23.7 -0.1 ↓
In Zone % 49.2 51.6 2.4 ↑ 53.2 1.6 ↑ 57.3 4.1 ↑
Out of Zone % 50.8 48.4 -2.4 ↓ 46.8 -1.6 ↓ 42.7 -4.1 ↓
Out of Zone Swing % 26.3 26.3 0.0 31.9 5.6 ↑ 28.3 -3.6 ↓
First Pitch Swing % 29.4 30.7 1.3 ↑ 35.6 4.9 ↑ 37.3 1.7 ↑
First Pitch Strike % 57.7 59.8 2.1 ↑ 65.5 5.7 ↑ 68.3 2.8 ↑
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Statcast Fielder Positioning

vs RHHvs LHH
YearAlignment TypePAwOBAPATotal%PATotal%
2021 Shifts 246 .332 195 35 17.9 51 23 45.1
2022 Shifts 511 .295 397 121 30.5 114 54 47.4
2023 Shades 691 .293 554 43 7.8 137 36 26.3
2024 Shades 539 .269 436 49 11.2 103 32 31.1
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field.
Learn more about how positioning is defined here

Pitch Tempo

Bases EmptyRunners On Base
SeasonTeamPitchesTempoFast %Slow %PitchesTempoFast %Slow %
2021 249 16.3 32.1% 0.8% 204 22.2 0.0% 6.9%
2022 563 16.6 29.8% 1.4% 359 21.2 0.8% 5.0%
2023 706 14.1 62.7% 0.3% 390 18.2 8.5% 0.0%
2024 559 14.5 58.9% 0.2% 247 17.7 8.1% 0.4%

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Pitch Distribution

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